Want to avoid the Hot Seat? Head coaches need to stay off this list

We couldn’t even make it into October, and there were already four college football firings. Certainly, there will be more in the coming days, weeks, or even minutes.

Arkansas’ Sam Pittman and Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy were the most recent casualties, joining UCLA’s DeShaun Foster and Virginia Tech’s Brent Pry. 

Technically, there are now five openings since Stanford announced interim coach Frank Reich would not return next season.

There were various reasons why Pittman, Gundy, Foster and Fry were fired this early. The biggest reason, of course, was not enough wins. Or not enough wins to appease the athletic director and big-money donors – not necessarily in that order.

Whatever the reasons, there was a similarity amongst the firings of Pittman, Gundy and Fry (Foster was whacked after 15 games, so he’s an outlier) in that their programs had slumped in the past few seasons.

There are 41 power conference coaches who have been at their current schools since 2022. Of those 41, 30 are above .500 and 11 are living dangerously at .500 or worse entering this weekend’s games. Pittman, Gundy, and Fry were among the 11 coaches who didn’t have a winning record since 2022. 

Here are the 11 power coaches at .500 or worse since 2022 entering this weekend’s games:

*Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State 21-21 (50%)
Pat Narduzzi, Pitt 21-21 (50%)
Greg Schiano, Rutgers 21-22 (48.8%)
#Billy Napier, Florida 20-22 (47.6%)
Dave Aranda, Baylor 20-23 (46.5%)
*Sam Pittman, Arkansas 20-23 (46.5%)
Justin Wilcox, Cal 20-23 (46.5%)
Mark Stoops, Kentucky 20-24 (45.4%)
Clark Lea, Vanderbilt 19-23 (45.2%)
*#Brent Pry, Virginia Tech 16-24 (40%)
#Tony Elliott, Virginia 15-24 (38.4%)

*Fired
#In fourth season at school, hired in 2022

With three of the 11 coaches with non-winning records already let go, will there be more from that group that don’t return next season? Most likely. A few of the coaches on this list are on the proverbial hot seat. However, a losing overall record since 2022 is not necessarily a death sentence. 

Vanderbilt’s Clark Lea and Virginia’s Tony Elliott have the two lowest winning percentages (other than Pry) from this group, but both are on hot streaks, not a hot seat. In this week’s Associated Press Top 25 poll, Lea’s Commodores are ranked No. 16 and Elliott’s Cavaliers are No. 24.

Any real or perceived hot seat for them has dissipated into thin air. As for the others on that list? Well, stay tuned.

While there are 11 power conference coaches without a winning record since 2022, 30 power conference coaches are currently above .500 since 2022 entering this weekend’s games:

Kirby Smart, Georgia 42-5 (89.3%)
Ryan Day, Ohio State 40-6 (86.9%)
#Dan Lanning, Oregon 40-6 (86.9%)
James Franklin, Penn State 35-9 (79.5%)
Josh Heupel, Tennessee 34-10 (77.2%)
Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss 34-10 (77.2%)
Steve Sarkisian, Texas 36-11 (76.5%)
#Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame 35-11 (76.0%)
#Brian Kelly, LSU 33-12 (73.3%)
Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri 32-12 (72.7%)
#Rhett Lashlee, SMU 31-14 (68.8%)
Dabo Sweeney, Clemson 31-14 (68.8%)
Sonny Dykes, TCU 30-14 (68.1%)
Chris Klieman, Kansas State 30-15 (66.6%)
#Lincoln Riley, USC 30-15 (66.6%)
Kalani Sitake, BYU 28-14 (66.6%)
Mike Norvell, Florida State 28-15 (65.1%)
Kirk Ferentz, Iowa 29-16 (64.4%)
#Mario Cristobal, Miami 26-16 (61.9%)
Matt Campbell, Iowa State 27-17 (61.3%)
Kyle Whittingham, Utah 27-17 (61.3%)
PJ Fleck, Minnesota 26-17 (60.4%)
Shane Beamer, South Carolina 25-18 (58.1%)
Bret Bielema, Illinois 27-16 (62.7%)
#Joey McGuire, Texas Tech 27-16 (62.7%)
#Brent Venables, Oklahoma 26-17 (60.4%)
Dave Doeren, NC State 26-18 (59%)
#Brent Key, Georgia Tech 23-16 (58.9%) 
Mike Locksley, Maryland 24-18 (57.1%)
Lance Leipold, Kansas 23-20 (53.4%)

#In fourth season at school, hired in 2022

Does staying above .500 guarantee every one of the 30 coaches will return in 2026? In today’s environment, who the heck knows?