Luckett's Locks: Conference Grind

We are starting to get heated up here at Luckett’s Locks. The cover train has left the station.

After a bad debut week, we have put together three consecutive non-losing weekends in a row and got to the window four times to end September. Our record has now been pushed to 11-12-1 against the spread (ATS), and we are dead set on getting back over .500 this weekend.

The board is jam-packed with value in Week 5 as we’ve got a plethora of conference matchups as teams begin the grind of a long season. Let’s dive into the best plays on the card.

Oklahoma (-6.5) at TCU

After a huge road win over Nebraska, it looks like Brent Venables and Oklahoma consumed some rat poison last week. The Sooners looked very bad on defense against what was an anemic offense at Kansas State in a stunning home loss. That gives OU an early conference loss, and they must regroup quickly before Red River arrives next week.

TCU is off to a quick 3-0 start under new head coach Sonny Dykes as the Frogs collected a big rivalry win over SMU last weekend. The offense is putting up 46.3 points per game as quarterback Max Duggan is playing at a high level (11.4 yards per attempt, 8 touchdowns, 0 interceptions).

Oklahoma is headed on the road again and this feels like a perfect time to back the Sooners. TCU’s pass defense has been bad to this point, and UCF transfer Dillon Gabriel has been balling for offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby in Norman. The Sooners have the better defense — not by much — along with the better quarterback and running game. Add in the motivation spot, and there is a lot to like.

Lay the points with the road favorite in Fort Worth.

Michigan State (+7.5) at Maryland

Things aren’t going great in year three for Mel Tucker as Michigan State was hammered by Minnesota at home one week after a double-digit road loss to Washington on the road. The Spartans cannot run the ball and once again have a bad pass defense. MSU’s backs are already against the wall in East Lansing.

Last week at the Big House, Maryland put up a valiant effort but fell just short in their Big Ten opener. Mike Locksley appears to have his best team yet in College Park as the Terps have a dynamic passing game powered by Taulia Tagovailoa (9.3 yards per attempt, 74.6% completion rate) and an improved defense.

Things have gone poorly the last two weeks for Sparty, and everyone will want to jump on the Maryland bandwagon after playing Michigan close in the noon window on FOX. That means the value is on Michigan State.

The Spartans have their backs against the wall and need to respond with one of their best performances of the season. We get that on Saturday afternoon in some rainy conditions. Take the points.

Indiana at Nebraska (-4.5)

Indiana got off to a 3-0 start, but that was proven to be fool’s gold last week against Cincinnati. The Hoosiers are very pass-heavy with Missouri QB transfer Connor Bazelak, but the offense is neither efficient or explosive under new offensive coordinator Walt Bell. Meanwhile, the defense also has some issues.

Nebraska really needed a bye after getting destroyed at home by Oklahoma, but interim head coach Mickey Joseph will look to rally the troops on Saturday. Texas transfer Casey Thompson is giving the team some good play at quarterback as this offense has put up some good numbers.

Both offenses use tempo so we could be in for a long game in Lincoln, but Nebraska is the better team. The Huskers get the interim coach bump after the bye and cover the short number at home in their first Big Ten win of the season.

Virginia (+2.5) at Duke

Tony Elliott is off to a 2-2 start in year one at Virginia as the Hoos have dropped their first games against Power Five foes on the road. The third game will occur away from home again on Saturday. The big story in Charlottesville is that the offense is having all kinds of issues (No. 92 in success rate and No. 97 in yards per play) despite returning star quarterback Brennan Armstrong. However, new defensive coordinator John Rudzinski has UVA playing at a top-25 level.

Duke has been an early season darling, but the Blue Devils have beat some bad teams as that Northwestern looks less impressive with each passing week. New offensive coordinator Kevin Johns has an offense that is putting up good numbers, but this is very bad pass defense.

The ACC Coastal matchup feels like a get right spot for the Virginia passing game. The Hoos slow down an explosive Duke offense just enough and that gives Elliott his first big win.

Take the small road dog.

NC State at Clemson Over 43

This feels like the year for NC State, and Dave Doeren’s 10th team is off to a 4-0 start. The offense is solid but not great while the defense is top-15 caliber. The Wolfpack have a team loaded with veterans and have had this matchup in Death Valley circled all offseason.

Clemson is fresh off a huge division overtime road win against Wake Forest where quarterback DJ Uiagalelei had the best game of his career. The Tigers seemed to have fixed most of their issues under new offensive coordinator Brandon Streeter as the explosiveness has returned.

Dabo Swinney’s team showed some holes in coverage on defense last week, but the offense looks legitimately good. That means you can trust the Tigers to score on a stingy NC State defense. You can also trust that Devin Leary will have some success throwing the ball for the road team.

We’re jumping on this short total and playing the over in a Clemson game for the second week in a row as there will be more fireworks than expected in the biggest ACC game of the year.

Best Bet: Iowa State (-3) at Kansas

Matt Campbell’s team is off to a 3-1 start this year, and the defense is leading the way. Jon Heacock’s 3-3-3 scheme is giving opposing offenses some issues while the offense is going through some growing pains. Hunter Dekkers has flashed promise at quarterback, but the Cyclones are struggling to get the ground game going.

The 4-0 start by Kansas has been one of the biggest stories in college football and Jalon Daniels may have won the September Heisman after accounting for 15 total touchdowns on 9.6 yards per attempt and 8.4 yards per rush for an offense that is averaging 48.5 points per game. However, the defense is still pretty bad and should be the worst in the Big 12.

It’s another big spot for Rock Chalk, but Iowa State is their toughest challenge to date. After taking a home loss to Baylor, the road team cannot afford another early league loss. Expected a spirited effort from Iowa State as their defense becomes the first unit to give Daniels some issues.

Lay the points with the small road favorite.