A PFF-based comparison of Quinn Ewers and Michael Penix Jr. reveals each's linchpin status

A considerable focus in the leadup to the Allstate Sugar Bowl between Texas and Washington has been placed on the quarterback for each team. Quinn Ewers, the Longhorns’ second year starter, has enjoyed a strong sophomore campaign and is coming off of the best statistical performance of his career in the Big 12 Championship versus Oklahoma State. Michael Penix Jr., the Heisman runner-up in his sixth college season, passed for over 4000 yards and 33 touchdowns leading a prolific Husky offense.

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The outcome of the College Football Playoff semifinal will depend greatly on how Ewers and Penix Jr. fare in crucial situations. Pro Football Focus has a number of metrics that measure how the signal-callers have fared in important situations this season, including…

‘Big Time Throws’

Ewers: 13

Penix Jr.: 33

PFF defines big time throws as “a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.” Both Ewers and Penix Jr. boast a yards per attempt mark of 9.0, but Penix Jr. has 467 attempts to Ewers’ 308. Penix Jr. has had more opportunities to throw, and he’s regularly thrown downfield in those chances. His average depth of target is 11.0 to Ewers’ 8.1.

That’s all to say that Penix Jr. has taken more downfield shots and converted on them at a higher clip than Ewers. The Texas quarterback has 40 downfield attempts. Penix Jr. has 44 downfield completions on 100 attempts, and those are likely where the big time throws are manifested.

Penix Jr. throws it deep with regularity and converts often to maintain the explosive Husky attack. Ewers throws it deep with regularity and converts at a lower rate. However, he’s been precise this season in short to medium range throws that have forced defenders to have to cover multiple corners of the field.

Play Action Percentage

Ewers: 53.5%

Penix Jr.: 30.7%

Play action is a simpler task for the quarterback than plain dropback passing. Yes, there’s a moment where the quarterback’s back is turned to the defense, but that’s offset by the momentary pause defenders must make when reading the playfake. That pause helps clear up the downfield picture. This points to why an effective running game is a critical part of a Steve Sarkisian offense.

The Husky passing game is a different style. There are downfield shots, but Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb trust Penix Jr. to be able to read defenses and make throws without the benefit of play action. A Joe Moore Award winning O-line that creates time for three elite receivers in Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, and Ja’Lynn Polk helps Penix Jr. in this area, but he has to make the throws and does so with regularity.

Ewers’ completion percentage on play action is 76.0 percent. Penix Jr.’s is 74.5 percent.

Without a play fake, Ewers is at 62.6 while Penix Jr. is at 62.1.

Sixteen of Ewers’ 21 touchdown passes have come on play action, while 12 of Penix Jr.’s 33 scoring tosses featured a play fake.

Play action success is key to the Longhorn offense, but the Husky O can survive without it.

Screen percentage

Ewers: 19.3%

Penix Jr.: 11.8%

With a tenacious blocker like Jordan Whittington available and a strong two-way threat in Ja’Tavion Sanders at tight end, screen passes to Xavier Worthy are a regular component in the Longhorn offense. The old “screens are an extension of the run game” cliche holds true to a certain extent.

Washington doesn’t utilize screens as often.

Stats when blitzed

Ewers: 88-for-130 on 140 dropbacks, 67.7%, 979 yards, 11 touchdowns, 3 interceptions

Penix Jr.: 96-for-161 on 169 dropbacks, 59.6%, 1438 yards, 13 touchdowns, 4 interceptions

For Ewers, teams often bring pressure to pursue him but it’s often met either by a max protect scheme with seven blockers or he’s able to get the ball out quickly enough to neutralize the pressure. Penix Jr.’s efficiency plummets when he’s blitzed, but it’s a gambit teams don’t often take considering it leaves fewer defenders in the backfield to cover the Husky WR corps.

The Longhorns have surrendered 26 sacks this season while Washington has given up an impressive 11 in 13 games.

Last year’s matchup

Ewers: 31-for-47, 369 yards, 1 touchdown

Penix Jr.: 32-for-54, 287 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception

Last season, both quarterbacks were tasked with being the main focus of each team’s gameplan. In addition, the stretch run for both teams this season portend something similar taking place in New Orleans.

Ewers was asked to carry the offensive load in the 2022 Alamo Bowl since Texas was without the services of Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson with only a limited Jonathon Brooks and miscast Keilan Robinson available. He performed admirably, but yards were left on the field via two critical Worthy drops.

That gameplan was dusted off for the 2023 Big 12 Championship when Ewers passed for 452 yards and four touchdowns on his way to earning Most Outstanding Player honors. Texas will look to maintain a healthy run game, but Ewers’ ability to find his receivers will be the main determinant of success for Texas in the Sugar Bowl.

Similar applies for Penix Jr. The sixth-year senior has been carrying the Husky offense for most of the season because he’s answered each and every bell. He hasn’t had to throw 50-plus passes once this year like he did in San Antonio last season, but with Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat in front of his O-linemen that may be the task placed upon him on Monday.

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Quarterbacks will play a major role in this semifinal, though the two in this contest are utilized in different manners. Still, they’ll be asked to lead their respective offenses in a game that is likely to feature a lot of points.