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After a win at Texas Tech, the Longhorns' NCAA Tournament chances are looking way up

Joe Cookby:Joe Cook•02/28/24•

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An 81-69 win over Texas Tech in Lubbock gave Rodney Terry‘s Texas Longhorns another critical Quadrant 1 win and greatly increased their chances of making the NCAA Tournament with three games remaining in the regular season.

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The game against the Red Raiders was one of two left on the 2023-24 regular season schedule that were in the Quadrant 1 category, the other being the Longhorns’ Monday tilt at Baylor. The Oklahoma State game on Saturday is likely to be a Quadrant 3 matchup, while March 9’s game against Oklahoma is projected to be a Quadrant 2 matchup.

A reminder: NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings replaced the RPI prior to the 2018-19 season as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams. Here’s how the quadrants are broken down.

Using the quadrant system, the NCAA says the quality of wins and losses will be organized based on game location and the opponent’s NET ranking.

  • Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
  • Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
  • Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
  • Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

Even after the loss, Texas Tech remained safely in the top 75 and will likely remain there for the rest of the season. Texas, on the other hand, jumped from No. 40 to No. 33 thanks to the resume-boosting victory. The Longhorns (18-10, 7-8 Big 12) are 5-7 in Quadrant 1 games. Other teams with exactly five Quadrant 1 wins include Tennessee, Iowa State, BYU, Clemson, Boise State, and Washington State.

Most, if not all, of those teams are considered safely in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

With the win over Texas Tech, and with three opportunities to earn at least an 8-10 Big 12 record generally believed to be sufficient for an at-large selection in the NCAA Tournament, the Longhorns’ chances of making the field of 68 are looking way, way up.

The next battle, however, could be avoiding the First Four in Dayton, Ohio. The First Four features one play-in game for two teams on the 16-seed line and another for two teams on the 11-seed line.

In projections not yet updated after Tuesday’s games, BracketMatrix.com had the Longhorns in the field on 111-of-115 compiled projected tournament fields with an average seeding of 9.56. That pegged Texas as a 10-seed, barely safe from having to make an early-week trip to Ohio.

CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm’s February 28 projections had the Longhorns clear of the “last four in” category as a 10-seed facing Nevada in the South region.

ESPN’s February 27 bracketology thought similar, with Joe Lunardi calling Texas one of the last four teams to earn a bye. Lunardi had the Longhorns matched up with Utah State in the 7 vs. 10 matchup of the West region.

Barring the Longhorns winning a second consecutive Big 12 Tournament, the 11-line is most likely the lowest Texas could be seeded as an at-large selection. Palm’s 12-seeds were all mid-majors: Samford, South Florida, Grand Canyon, and Richmond.

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The remaining games are opportunities for Texas to move up, possibly into the 8- or 9-seed territory. But the previous games, including Texas’ most previous win, did a lot of work toward earning a spot in March Madness.

Texas’ NET resume

Quad 1 wins (5): at Cincinnati, Baylor, at Oklahoma, at TCU, at Texas Tech
Quad 1 losses (7): vs. UConn, at Marquette, Texas Tech, at BYU, Houston, Iowa State, at Houston, at Kansas

Quad 2 wins (2): LSU, Kansas State
Quad 2 losses (2): Texas Tech, UCF

Quad 3 wins (2): UNC Greensboro, West Virginia
Quad 3 losses (1): at West Virginia

Quad 4 wins (9): UIW, Delaware State, Rice, Louisville, Wyoming, Texas State, Houston Christian, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, UT-Arlington
Quad 4 losses (0): N/A

The Big 12 in NET

  • 1. Houston
  • 8. Iowa State
  • 10. BYU
  • 14. Baylor
  • 17. Kansas
  • 33. Texas
  • 38. TCU
  • 40. Oklahoma
  • 42. Texas Tech
  • 45. Cincinnati
  • 70. UCF
  • 73. Kansas State
  • 113. Oklahoma State
  • 146. West Virginia

Big 12 Standings

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