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Arch Manning What If's: every Manning scenario and what it could mean for the Texas Longhorns

by:Evan Vieth•07/23/25
Arch Manning

Everyone is tired of the Arch Manning What If? game. Even the best analysts fall victim to overreaction and clickbait when discussing the most popular player in the sport. It’s even worse when people far from being a CFB analyst weigh in on the discussion about him.

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Manning has played just 260 offensive snaps and thrown a pass on only 37% of those plays. Drawing any major conclusions from a player with just two starts—both of which were against bottom-half FBS teams—is a fool’s errand.

But there are still a few things that remain a given for Manning as a passer. Any quarterback rated this highly who’s stayed in a Tier 1 program for three seasons is bound to be a baseline level of good—a top-25 quarterback in the country, most likely. Even if you may be low on his ceiling, Alabama’s Ty Simpson will be one of the 25 best passers next season. The same can be said for Penn State’s Drew Allar. No matter how low you are on him, he manages games well with his legs and puts them in positions to win.

So instead of making a hasty claim about Manning being the Heisman favorite—or the exact opposite—IT is analyzing all of the scenarios with Manning for the 2025 season.

Manning is just a top-25 quarterback

This is a pretty fair expectation for the average first-year starter. It’s rare that they have the Manning last name or the preseason Heisman favorite title, but this is a very possible scenario for the young QB. Fellow highly rated 2023 recruit Nico Iamaleava was a good, not great, QB in his first year starting last season.

If Manning is “just” a top-25 QB, Texas is back to where they were last year with Quinn Ewers. Other players will need to step up offensively, and the defense will need to remain elite. Neither of these options is a tall task, though there’s likely not a Matthew Golden or Kelvin Banks on this year’s team. Texas’ ceiling would be capped, but they’d still be a title contender—just not the favorite.

Manning is a top-10 QB, top five in the SEC

This would likely put Manning in the same tier as the likes of LaNorris Sellers, DJ Lagway, and John Mateer in the conference, but maybe behind some other Heisman hopefuls like Garrett Nussmeier or Clemson’s Cade Klubnik.

This is the type of quarterback that can easily lead a team to the national championship. Even if he’s not a Heisman finalist, Manning would be a tier better than last year’s Ewers and someone whose legs and natural arm talent can win Texas games by themselves. Texas would be a Tier 1 title favorite, with a path built on winning similarly to past Georgia teams.

Manning is a Heisman Finalist

This scenario is where many of us land with Manning: a top-five QB in the sport, good enough to make it to New York, and a true star player in Austin.

Simply put, this would make Texas a surefire title candidate and bring Manning into some awkward discussions. Texas would be favored over any team in America if they had a top-four player in the sport to go alongside this tremendous defense and deep running back room.

Manning wins the Heisman

This may actually not be the best scenario, because it may mean Texas loses him a year earlier than some accounted for. To put it plain and simple, if Manning is the best player in the country, Texas has no excuse not to run the table this year. They would have the best QB, the best pass rush, an elite defense, and capable playmakers. The closest roster to that would be 2018 Clemson, who went 15-0. If Manning is a Heisman winner and national champion, he would have no reason to return to Austin;he would have done it all.

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It’s hard to project a full crash and burn from Manning in any sense. Many fans would be upset to see him just be a top-25 QB, or just be what Ewers was last year, but that kind of player could still bring Texas to the national championship. What might be his best trait is his ceiling-floor balance. His legs and poise keep his floor high, while his natural traits and talent allow his ceiling to be that Heisman Trophy and a national championship. Everything is on the table with this kid, but most scenarios put Texas as a top-three team in the nation. That’s a great spot to be.

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