IT Roundtable: Diego Pavia over/under, season stakes, score predictions for Texas vs. Vanderbilt

No. 20 Texas. No. 9 Vanderbilt. A top-20 matchup in Austin for the Longhorns’ first Power Conference home game of the 2025 season. The IT Staff offers insight on storylines and key stats plus score predictions in the Roundtable.

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Does Diego Pavia hit 230 total yards (run+pass)?

Eric Nahlin – Yes, but barely.

Justin Wells – Yes, but only because he’s the soul of their offense. It’ll be limiting how many times he hits the end zone that’s important.

Ian Boyd – I’ll say yes. I think this secondary will be a little more susceptible to his misdirections than last year and he’ll get most of the way to 230 throwing.

Joe Cook – Sure. 180 pass, 50 run.

Charlie Williams – Yes

Evan Vieth – Yes

NashTalksTexas – No. Look at his totals from SEC games. He hit 254 against South Carlina, 256 against Alabama, 246 versus LSU, and 149 against Mizzou.

RT Young – Maybe at Bevo Boulevard! HA!

Paul Wadlington – Under. Pavia has exceeded that number in 6/8 starts, except for South Carolina and Mizzou. Two defenses that profile similarly to Texas, but with less talent.

No matter who is at quarterback, what do you want to see from the Texas offense after a glimpse of a potential path forward at Mississippi State?

Eric Nahlin – Keep harnessing the short passing game to open up other opportunities down the field. Move the pocket for the QB. Work the perimeter like last year.

Justin Wells – Heavy doses of RPO, intermediate passing, and manageable third downs.

Ian Boyd – They have to keep running easy designed plays to get the ball to Ryan Wingo in space so his speed and power can generate some offense. They also have to run less max protection and deeper passing, they’re just not good at it.

Joe Cook – No more depending on 12 personnel to protect deep shots, too many pressures have been allowed by Texas tight ends. The Longhorns had some great timing route plays during their comeback in Starkville, lean into that against a secondary that is not as athletic as the Longhorn wideouts.

Charlie Williams – Scrap 12 personnel and stick to 11 or maybe even 10 personnel. Quick game concepts, and taking your deep shots when they are there. Also, even when it looks ugly, try to run the football have to keep people honest.

Evan Vieth – Would prefer quick-hitters that either play into Matthew Caldwell‘s skill set or keeps Arch Manning out of danger

NashTalksTexas – Consistency from the skill positions, particularly RB and WR

RT Young – Play faster on the outside, more spread oriented and some RPO

Paul Wadlington – Who the QB is will impact the game plan a lot. More RPO and timing routes with Matthew Caldwell, more shot plays with Arch Manning and more 12-15 yard outs. Have we just given up on the run game at this point? Maybe some RPO window dressing helps to create some. There’s an opportunity for WR screen game.

Even if the win is ugly on Saturday, if Texas is 7-2 heading into the bye you’re feeling…

Eric Nahlin – Like anything is possible the rest of the way. Vanderbilt is a monster game because a win means they only have to beat Arkansas and split against Georgia and A&M to at least be in the conversation for the CFP.

Justin Wells – Pretty good considering this offensive line.

Ian Boyd – If the win is ugly and they’re 7-2 it’ll still feel tense until the season is resolved. It’s hard to believe the offense will ever turn the corner in 2025 and it’ll be hard to shake the feeling the team is always on the verge of going over the cliff until they do or they get off the mountain path.

Joe Cook – Optimistic. Finding ways to overcome systemic issues is still laudable in its own right. Beating a top-10 team to move to 7-2? Everything is still ahead of Texas at that point entering mid-November.

Charlie Williams – I’ll take a win any day no matter how it looks. I will feel like Texas is going 8-4, though.

Evan Vieth – Fine. I doubt anything specifically about this game will make me believe they’ll go 3-0 to end the year, but it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility if they’re 7-2.

NashTalksTexas – That a berth into the College Football Playoff is a realistic and attainable goal in 2025

RT Young – Hopeful a bye week can be like when something isn’t working and you simply unplug and plug back in and it’s fixed. Not likely but here’s to hoping.

Paul Wadlington – Mirthful and ebullient. Gladsome, but not rhapsodic. Perhaps slightly pensive, but in no way timorous.

Score prediction

Eric Nahlin – 20-17, Texas

Justin Wells – 27-21, Texas

Ian Boyd – 21-16, Vanderbilt

Joe Cook – 20-14, Texas

Charlie Williams – 24-20, Vanderbilt

Evan Vieth – 24-23, Texas

NashTalksTexas – 31-17, Texas

RT Young – 27-23, Texas

Paul Wadlington – 21-20, Texas