Peering through the Hubble: Key matchups for Week 5 in the Big 12

On3 imageby:Ian Boyd10/01/21

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We’re in full swing in the conference schedule now, every team believes they know their own identity now and are hoping it’ll hold up or solidify as league play gets going.

This week also has a few fun sort of rivalry matchups. There’s Gary Patterson vs Texas, which I just broke down for Inside Texas, and then also Chris Klieman aiming to go 3-0 against Lincoln Riley.

I’ll try and give big picture thoughts on these games but, as always, we’ll focus here mostly on the matchups in space.

Left tackles vs edge rushers, cornerbacks vs wide receivers, if you can win decisively in those high-stakes battles it tends to affect the flow of the rest of the game.

Texas (-5) at TCU

There’s an awful lot going on in this game and one of the main matchups which will have everyone’s attention is the battle between 5-star sophomores Bijan Robinson and Zach Evans.

Both of these guys have really been thriving at exactly the same sorts of things they showed in high school. At Salpointe (Arizona), Bijan had unreal lateral agility which made him nearly impossible to corral and lead me to conclude he was the better overall prospect than Evans or Texas’ other blue chip Jase McClellan (Aledo to Alabama, sorry OU).

Evans’ specialty at North Shore, other than having minimal impact on state title games, was as a force multiplier in a good spread run game. The North Shore Mustangs would get him loose behind big Damieon George (6-foot-6, 350 pounds, also now at Alabama) and his elite athleticism (4.51 40, 3.84 shuttle) would lead to huge gains.

Now Texas is doing a lot of their work with outside zone, often from 12 personnel formations, while the Frogs are spreading the field with 10 personnel and zone-option while setting up Evans to hit creases hard and fast behind a big center and tackles.

So, how much space are these guys likely to find to run in? Let’s get into the space matchups.

Quentin Johnston looms over this game and TCU’s season. They’ve only hit him nine times in three games, which is frankly pathetic given his talent level, and isn’t really for lack of trying. SMU covered him up with Jahari Rodgers, which went well. I’m not sure how Texas will handle him but last week they played Josh Thompson on Erik Ezukanma in off coverage which went well, and they played D’Shawn Jamison in a lot of press-man on the no. 2 receiver and it went very poorly.

On the flip side, we should see Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and Noah Daniels both play in this game. Texas’ best deep threat is freshman Xavier Worthy, whom they often put in the slot where Casey Thompson tends to have better success throwing deep. In that event, the play of safety T.J. Carter should be huge for the Frogs, but either way I expect a lot of man coverage from TCU on whoever is lined up outside from Texas and I expect it to go the Frogs’ way there.

In the pass-rush, Texas’ offensive tackles have been “good, not great” whereas TCU has been pretty bad in pass protection. The Mustangs gave the Frogs fits just from rushing four. Texas’ top pass-rusher is Ovie Oghoufo, but they’re likely to stunt him inside on the TCU interior or up against Andrew Coker rather than taking on Eze.

Meanwhile TCU hopes to have Ochaun Mathis and Khari Coleman on the edges in this game with Corey Bethley back at tackle. This could be the toughest pass-rushing D-line Texas has faced this season if it wasn’t Arkansas. The Longhorns have been solid on the edges but had some breakdowns on the interior which appeared to improve against Rice and Texas Tech but…we’ll be sure by midday Saturday.

An interesting dimension Coleman will also bring is his play against the zone-option. If on form, he has the quickness to play the cutback on the zone run and still chase down the quarterback if he keeps the ball. Can he do it against Casey Thompson? I think so. Can he do it against the increased stress of outside zone-read vs inside zone-read? I’m less sure.

Overall the space matchups probably favor the Frogs. The Longhorns will want to control this game with infrastructure and hope Quentin Johnston’s theoretical boost to the TCU offense will continue to be just that.

On that note, Max Duggan has 31 carries through three games. There’s a reason teams who want to take lots of deep shots on play-action don’t usually also ask much of their quarterback in the run game. Getting tackled regularly is not conducive to accuracy throwing deep. Nor is shoddy protection, of course.

Oklahoma (-10.5) at Kansas State

The Sooners were favored by 19 point last time they went to Manhattan and lost 48-41. Then were favored by 27.5 last year and blew a 28-7 lead to lose 38-35. Since Chris Klieman has been coach at Kansas State, the Wildcats have not failed to defeat Lincoln Riley’s Sooners, which is more than a little amusing.

This year they catch them in Manhattan sandwiched behind a grueling 16-13 win over West Virginia and then the upcoming Red River Shootout, which is probably the ideal time to play the Sooners. On the other hand, Oklahoma won’t be sandbagging for Texas but looking to get some things right to build momentum and solidify identity heading into their battle with the Longhorns (as Texas will do against TCU).

The big question for this game is whether Skylar Thompson will be able to play. Klieman has been coy, saying it’s “doubtful” and pointing to the following game as their original target, which honestly makes it sound pretty plausible he could play.

It really matters, because Malik Knowles is likely to be a problem for Oklahoma and the other quarterbacks can’t really be trusted to get the ball to him. Bryce Ford-Wheaton chewed up Oklahoma on slants last week for several big conversions and the Sooners frequently tried a duo of DJ Graham and Latrell McCutchin (freshman) whom they covered up with some bracket coverages (safeties bracket the deepest route, essentially 2-man under).

Whether Thompson or Howard plays, I don’t think the Sooners can defend the Wildcat run game in the same fashion, although I think only one of Thompson or Howard is likely to make the Sooners pay for playing 1-on-1 outside.

In the pass-rush, Nik Bonitto has been a wrecking ball for opposing passing games this season and his battle with Cooper Beebe strikes me as pretty one-sided. The Wildcats will either need to get the ball out quickly with empty sets utilizing Deuce Vaughn, like last year, or chip with a tight end or fullback on Bonitto.

On the other side, this game is still interesting. The Wildcats have been utilizing a flyover defense the last two weeks, although Oklahoma State picked at it early in their battle. It’s a very good approach for this Oklahoma offense, which has struggled to run the football or consistently execute drives throwing underneath coverage. The Sooners may also be vulnerable on the edge against Felix Anudike, who picked up another sack last week against the Cowboys.

It’s easy to foresee two possible narratives after this game. Either, “Oklahoma sorts out their issues and romps over K-State” or “Skylar Thompson returns to lead K-State to another shocking win over Oklahoma.”

Texas Tech at West Virginia (-7.5)

With all respect to Henry Colombi, who’s a solid player, I think Texas Tech’s season is essentially over. They won the “ah crap, I’m so fired…” bowl over Houston, but the 70-35 drubbing from Texas made plain what was suggested by a 28-22 win over Stephen F. Austin…Tech is bad.

Who wants to bet on the Red Raiders being able to handle the defensive tackle tandem of Dante Stills and Akheem Mesidor which gave Oklahoma fits last Saturday night? On the road? Fat chance.

Meanwhile I expect West Virginia’s run game to plow over the Tech defensive front, which was ready to pack it in early last week against Texas, to the non-surprise of Matt Wells. On the edges, Erik Ezukanma is a problem for West Virginia but one they will likely solve for with a bracket coverage, and Tech lacks an edge player.

West Virginia trotted out a fun line up against Oklahoma on passing downs, playing both Jared Bartlett AND Vandarius Cowan at outside linebacker while taking one of their inside linebackers off the field. It gave Oklahoma some issues in identifying what they were seeing and Stills did some work there rushing the edge. If Bryce Ford-Wheaton can have another big game it should just about do it in this one.

Baylor at Oklahoma State (-3.5)

This is the last particularly interesting contest of the game. Oklahoma State lost another edge defender last week when Brock Martin went down, they can either start freshman Collin Oliver here or redshirt senior Tyren Irby.

On the plus side for OSU, they will have Tyler Lacy in any event and some other big, stout defensive linemen to try and attack Baylor’s guard in the wide zone run game. You should also look for them to mug their Leo (the edge) up in a B-gap to try and shoot through and force cutbacks like Iowa State did with Zach Petersen’s heroic play last week.

I also expect Oklahoma State will crowd the box with one or both of Kolby Harvell-Peel (boundary safety) or “rover” Jason Taylor. They’re both big, physical safeties who can play in the box. This would leave Baylor to either run the ball anyways or else attack a 1-on-1 in coverage. Christian Holmes is iffy at left cornerback on an island and his matchup with Tyquan Thornton outside is where Baylor could potentially win this game. The ‘Pokes may rely on zone in this game.

Alternatively, the Bears are in for a tough battle with the OSU offense, which is like the opposite of Iowa State. Whereas the Cyclones will methodically pound away at you with 12/13 personnel formations and steady runs by Breece Hall, Oklahoma State is all about the chunk plays. Spencer Sanders is hitting deep routes to Brennan Pressley and Tay Martin as well as Jaden Bray if he’s healthy and the Cowboy run game is landing big hits with bowling ball running back Jaylen Warren.

Baylor’s cornerback tandem of Raleigh Texada and Kalon Barnes will be hard-pressed and using Jalen Pitre off the edge in the blitz game exposes them to quick throws to Brennan Pressley. Last year Mike Gundy and this offense were not overawed by Dave Aranda’s defense and dropped a cool 42-3 beatdown on them so the return trip should be fascinating.

Kansas at Iowa State (-34)

Seems we all expect this to be a game where Iowa State gets back on track with a big win.

SEC matchup of the week: Kiffin vs Saban

Talking Hogs v Aggies was fun last week and rewarding when the analysis proved correct. This week we’ll branch out into another big SEC contest, when Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss Rebels take on mighty Alabama.

Last year the Rebels got this one at home and dropped it 63-48, but forced Saban and then offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian to keep scoring points to stay ahead. It was a fun game and Alabama looked relatively helpless at times on defense.

Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral is the new darling of college football and also Draft Twitter, because he’s now the athlete with a strong arm operating in a spread system with weapons around him. Sam Howell and Spencer Rattler lost key pieces in their supporting cast and are being relegated to the dustbin for the new hotness. I’m telling you people, having an athlete with a good arm at quarterback is great but these college offenses are built around run/pass conflicts and dynamic receivers. Ole Miss has them, their offensive line has been very effective this season and Lane Kiffin has found some athletes to get open for Corral down the field.

Kiffin, like Steve Sarkisian, has evolved to run a system I like to call “pro-style Briles.” You can read some about it here in this thread from the inimitable Chris B. Brown:

Here’s the gist of it. Lane go fast, Lane create run/pass conflicts, Lane gets the ball to athletes in space. Offense emphasizes simplicity and execution and if you catch them one play they’re not worried about their ability to get it all back and more on the next.

This has always troubled Nick Saban, who likes to have at least 10 good answers for every problem. Gus Malzahn, Kliff Kingsbury/Jake Spavital, Hugh Freeze, Tom Herman, Dabo Swinney, Darth Mullen, and now Lane Kiffin have always been the guys to give him fits because they make it hard for this control-oriented genius to control his players effectively on the field. Everything moves too fast and all his complexity is wasted.

Alabama just may have a chance though on defense with Pete Golding’s new defensive scheme, if they can get their play-calls in. The Tide use a different approach these days with their 37-year old coordinator than in the past. For instance, here’s their most common nickel package.

  • Buck linebacker: Drew Sanders. 6-foot-5, 244 pounds. 5-star from DFW
  • Nose tackle: D.J. Dale. 6-foot-3, 314 pounds. 4-star from AL
  • End/tackle: Justin Eboigbe: 6-foot-5, 283 pounds. 4-star from GA
  • Jack linebacker: Will Anderson: 6-foot-4, 243 pounds. 5-star from GA
  • Will linebacker: Christian Harris: 6-foot-2, 244 pounds. 4-star from LA
  • Mike linebacker: Henry To’oto’o: 6-foot-2, 228 pounds. 4-star from CA

And then one of their standard nickel secondaries. What’s different for them is the number of replacement blitzes they have in the package now in their 2-4-5 scheme and the fact they’ll use Will Anderson as a true edge on one snap and then a 4i-technique the next.

Quit a far cry from the massive lineups Alabama used in the past, they get a little smaller up front nearly every year.

It’s close to being the same exact scheme Pete Kwiatkowski brought to Texas. Heavy emphasis on versatility and playing a few base coverages but with the ability to drop either edge defender into coverage while blitzing anyone except the wide corner but typically only coming in groups of four.

What makes it a fun matchup against Kiffin’s RPO spread is the battle on the field between the quarterback, offensive line, and defensive blitzes. Kiffin is trying to make his offense as simple as possible so they can go fast, execute at a high level, and reliably get the ball into space. Matt Corral’s athleticism is his eraser when something goes wrong. However, Pete Golding is trying to bring confusion for the offensive line on who they’re blocking and the quarterback on who’s in coverage and who isn’t, but doing so from base defenses like Match 3 or Cloud quarters with deep defensive backs and team speed as his eraser when something goes awry.

So you have two levels to the matchup. First, who calls the better game between the coordinators, and secondly which unit is able to out-execute the other when it comes down to athletes battling in space? Some of the best schematic battles between cutting edge coordinators now takes place in the SEC.

Thoughts on this week’s slate? Discuss for free on the Flyover Football board!

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