Scouting the other Texas spring games
These last two weekends multiple football programs within the state of Texas had their spring games. In particular, Texas’ direct competitors TCU and Baylor and old rival and future opponent Texas A&M all suited it up. The Longhorns don’t need to be overly concerned about how the Aggies look this coming season aside from potential recruiting implications, but then that’s never really stopped Texas fans from having interest.
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Meanwhile Texas has to travel to both Waco and Fort Worth to play the Bears and Frogs in 2023. The Waco trip initiates the Big 12 season for Texas while the road trip to TCU occurs later in the year.
I’ve watched these games and have some notes on how the other main Texas programs are coming along for the 2023 season.
The TCU Horned Frogs
Paul Wadlington just did a nice write-up on the Horned Frogs, I’ve done one relatively recently myself, and we are essentially of one mind on their prospects in 2023. But I do have a few fresh notes from actually watching some of their new players in purple and white.
To begin with, they have a wildly different dynamic now with all of their receivers, star running back, and quarterback all gone. They weren’t particularly explosive in this game as Chandler Morris is almost Max Duggan‘s opposite. He has quickness but not the same breakaway speed or power of Duggan and while he’s solid throwing underneath he doesn’t have the same arm to push the ball down the field.
They also no longer have Quentin Johnston or the same kind of speed in the slot. What they do have is Oklahoma State transfer John Paul Richardson and Texas transfer tight end Jared Wiley offering sure hands and steady gains underneath. Perhaps that doesn’t sound particularly threatening, because it isn’t very explosive, but these are all pretty skilled and capable players.
Shortly after the scrimmage they picked up a transfer center from Maryland and quarterback from Oregon State. Neither positions were obvious strengths in the spring game and Morris’ ability to stay healthy at 5-foot-11, 195 pounds over a full season is an obvious concern. Will he make it to the Texas game?
The threat with the Frogs is their defense, which still has some NFL-caliber defensive backs from last year’s squad. Their major concern has been rushing the passer without defensive end Dylan Horton or linebacker Dee Winters. Replacing Horton they have a big, powerful end named Paul Oyewale (6-foot-4, 270 pounds) who isn’t a natural pass-rusher and a faster pass-rusher in Micheal Ibukun-Okeyode (6-foot-6, 250 pounds) who’s weaker against the run. Both are only redshirt freshmen. Replacing Winters is spun down safety Namdi Obiazor, who’s skill set is unsurprisingly that of a very coverage-savvy linebacker rather than a blitzer in the box.
The Frogs simply do not have the explosive athleticism which gave them an edge in so many close conference games a year ago, particularly in their passing game or pass-rush. They were 4-0 in one-score Big 12 games (before the Big 12 Championship) in 2022, a regression to the mean (or worse) is likely in 2023.
The Baylor Bears
The 2022 Bears are coming off a season where they had to rebuild after losing a lot of playmaking talent at wide receiver, running back, the secondary, and linebacker, much of it to the NFL Draft. Obviously it was tough for them, but now in 2023 they may not return a single starter from the secondary in their nickel package, so the growing pains of 2022 didn’t really result in the accumulation of loads of experience for their defensive backs. Another challenge is the departures of Mike linebacker Dillon Doyle and nose tackle Siaki Ika.
Doyle lead the team in tackles last year and played fullback in their highly efficient short-yardage package which enabled their successful approach to 4th downs (this is where Joey McGuire got it). Ika was a 6-foot-4, 350 pound force in the middle. Replacing them are Liberty transfer linebacker Mike Smith and… maybe no one at nose. The Bears added a massive JUCO named Jerrell Boykins but he ran second string in the spring game and his motor ran hot and cold in a way that even a young Keondre Coburn would find questionable.
The Bears are likely a 4-down team next season who doesn’t deploy a two-gapping nose and hopes a relatively small secondary can make Dave Aranda’s blitz package come alive again. It’s not obvious they have particularly good talent either in the blitzing roles or the coverage, but Aranda tends to coach this system really well.
Offensively they have to rebuild the offensive line which was expected to dominate the 2022 season and are doing so with a pair of brothers from BYU named Campbell and Clark Barrington. They’re both about 6-foot-6, 300 pounds with quick feet, the former is the left tackle and the latter has been converted into a center. The Baylor O-line roster has now been successfully transformed and no longer carries any resemblance to the “large humans” style of Art Briles but instead includes multiple kids with quick feet listed at 6-foot-3 or shorter and under 300 pounds.
Their wide zone run game appears to be in fine working order, although the back-ups had some bad moments in this contest. They have an army of tight ends they can put on the field to extend surfaces or reverse flow for play-action or quarterback keepers on zone-option plays… which leads us to their big question.
How do they complement their patented wide zone run game? In 2021 when they won the Big 12 they had both a deep threat dimension with Tyquan Thornton AND a quarterback run dynamic with Gerry Bohanon. Last year they had neither and were held under 30 points six times, all losses. It’s unclear if they have a deep threat wide receiver this season. Monaray Baldwin is the main contender but he’s 5-foot-9, 164 pounds and missed a few games a year ago. Quarterback Blake Shapen still looks wildly uncomfortable in the pocket.
They could have a quarterback run dimension… if they bench Shapen for Mississippi State transfer Sawyer Robertson. The latter is a 6-foot-4, 210 pound redshirt sophomore who originally hails from Lubbock and has never really been a dual-threat but does have the speed and size to pull the ball around the edge and did so in the spring.
All told, offensively they still have a great jab on offense but don’t know what they’re setting up. Defensively they are rebuilding and with every year there are fewer Matt Rhule/Joey McGuire recruits to plug in the talent level seems to take another hit.
The Texas A&M Aggies
The Aggies are an enigma for 2023. On the surface, they have a lot of promising features. Most notably, they could be healthier on the O-line this season (last year was a disaster) and return the Conner Weigman–Evan Stewart pairing which might be one of the more potent in college football. They’re also a year deeper into developing some absurdly talented D-line classes of the past and could field a nose tackle and competent linebackers this season, which would make a massive difference relative to 2022.
The spring game revealed the Weigman-Stewart connection was potent but perhaps a crutch for the offense. Their RPO game is truly nasty and it’s extremely difficult to keep Stewart covered on those schemes, particularly with how well Weigman throws him the ball.
The dropback passing game is another story entirely. Weigman was locking onto Stewart early and often and made some baffling decisions and throws when working through progressions more complicated than “hand-off or pull and throw to Stewart.”
The Aggie defense worked a lot of zone coverage, much of it Flyover-ish, and are clearly lacking in man-to-man defenders. If they play an actual Flyover scheme, this could be mitigated with layered coverage, but if they intend to run a 4-2-5 then they’re going to need an Edge and a cornerback to emerge in a major way. They do have nickel Bryce Anderson, some veteran safeties, and a number of former 5-star defensive tackles who could be rounding into form.
Whether you think this will all pull together into a winning team or not probably depends on your interpretation of the Jimbo Fisher rorschach test. Is he a proven champion who will mold another strong unit with his demanding persona or a doomed flash in the pan who’s worn out his welcome and is doomed to a Florida State-style slide?
None of these teams are very well positioned to challenge Texas on the field or on the recruiting trail in the seminal season for the Steve Sarkisian era.
