How 10-9 breaks down

[NCAAsorBust]

Hello Pirate faithful.

After the game I went to the message board and you have your excited fans and your dismal pirate fans. Then I went to the standings page to see us in 4th and when I looked at it I realized there's a massive gap between 6th and 7th place as far as our pirates are concerned. In games between teams 1-6 in the standings we are 1-8 with the only win, while we are 9-1 with the only loss being at home vs Butler against teams 7-11. The bad news is we've been close a number of times vs the top teams but unable to break through. Good teams need to take care of business against the bottom teams and we did just that. There is something to be said about finding ways to beat those teams. We have at least 2 shots left with teams 1-6 hopefully we can break through.

 

[Fishjam]

That's the reason why despite winning 20 games our Resume is just not impressive enough to make the NCAAs. Nova beat us soundly twice but we had 3 shots vs UConn and St. John's but couldn't make the plays down the stretch.

Even without a great win, we would likely be in the field if we didn't have 2 bad Home losses to Butler and DePaul. We'd be 22-7, same as Nova.

Let's look at Nova, comfortably "In" at 22-7. Like us (vs NC State), they have 1 Good Win (vs Wisconsin). Their next 2 best wins are over us and Providence. They avoided bad losses and they beat us twice head to head.

 

[dehere23]

That's the reason why despite winning 20 games our Resume is just not impressive enough to make the NCAAs. Nova beat us soundly twice but we had 3 shots vs UConn and St. John's but couldn't make the plays down the stretch.

Even without a great win, we would likely be in the field if we didn't have 2 bad Home losses to Butler and DePaul. We'd be 22-7, same as Nova.

Let's look at Nova, comfortably "In" at 22-7. Like us (vs NC State), they have 1 Good Win (vs Wisconsin). Their next 2 best wins are over us and Providence. They avoided bad losses and they beat us twice head to head.

That's right, and I see them as projected as an 8 or a 9 right now. Not even sure folks have them on the 7 line anymore.

 

[hallwins]

That's right, and I see them as projected as an 8 or a 9 right now. Not even sure folks have them on the 7 line anymore.

Definitely not 7 worthy based on recent play and mow without Hodge. Does the Committee take those types of injuries into consideration? I would imagine it can for seeding purposes once a team makes the field under the Quad system.

 

[dehere23]

Definitely not 7 worthy based on recent play and mow without Hodge. Does the Committee take those types of injuries into consideration? I would imagine it can for seeding purposes once a team makes the field under the Quad system.

Don't quote me on this, but I do believe in recent years the Committee has publicly stated it accounts for things like this in seeding. Texas Tech is going to be a prime example of this because of Toppin's injury. I don't know if an injury to a contributor like Hodge is going to move the needle though. But supposedly the Committee considers things like losses without key guys or injuries going into the dance. And I believe 2 years ago someone associated with the Committee said a factor in leaving out Seton Hall was that Klingan getting hurt during our home W against Uconn, which was complete BS IMO.

 

[hallwins]

Don't quote me on this, but I do believe in recent years the Committee has publicly stated it accounts for things like this in seeding. Texas Tech is going to be a prime example of this because of Toppin's injury. I don't know if an injury to a contributor like Hodge is going to move the needle though. But supposedly the Committee considers things like losses without key guys or injuries going into the dance. And I believe 2 years ago someone associated with the Committee said a factor in leaving out Seton Hall was that Klingan getting hurt during our home W against Uconn, which was complete BS IMO.

We definitely know about the Klingan issue.
Nova will be significantly hurt by Hodge absence, but committee may not realize it.

 

[dehere23]

We definitely know about the Klingan issue.
Nova will be significantly hurt by Hodge absence, but committee may not realize it.

I agree. He's shooting 37% from 3. Gives them length and size that they don't have. Stretches and spaces the floor. Helps on the glass. 28 minutes per game of production. He hurt us the first game (didn't do anything the second).

 

[mbraue]

I agree. He's shooting 37% from 3. Gives them length and size that they don't have. Stretches and spaces the floor. Helps on the glass. 28 minutes per game of production. He hurt us the first game (didn't do anything the second).

Hope we can meet them in the BE tourney

 

[NCAAsorBust]

That's the reason why despite winning 20 games our Resume is just not impressive enough to make the NCAAs. Nova beat us soundly twice but we had 3 shots vs UConn and St. John's but couldn't make the plays down the stretch.

Even without a great win, we would likely be in the field if we didn't have 2 bad Home losses to Butler and DePaul. We'd be 22-7, same as Nova.

Let's look at Nova, comfortably "In" at 22-7. Like us (vs NC State), they have 1 Good Win (vs Wisconsin). Their next 2 best wins are over us and Providence. They avoided bad losses and they beat us twice head to head.

Helps that Novas non conference schedule is ranked 118 vs ours is 295. 20 wins and a schedule that wasn’t so crappy and I think we might be in but we played cupcakes all non conference

 

[radecicco]

Helps that Novas non conference schedule is ranked 118 vs ours is 295. 20 wins and a schedule that wasn’t so crappy and I think we might be in but we played cupcakes all non conference

Except in Maui. And at the time K State was thought to be a good road test. But agree the overall OCC nothing to write home about.

 

[NCAAsorBust]

Except in Maui. And at the time K State was thought to be a good road test. But agree the overall OCC nothing to write home about.

My thought is that as a whole schedule was crappy for a big east team. Maui was mediocre at best with 1 very good team, 1 mediocre team and 1 very bad team. The rest of the schedule looked like a Piekell made schedule where RU plays no one for the most part

 

[Piratz]

We’re a Top-50 team. Outer Bubble. We played the 3 games against Top-2 dominant teams in the league who are a combined 34-4 better than we played DePaul and Butler, lol. Could’ve won all 3. Those 3 games were the miss. Those were the needle movers.

Elite defense, bad offense, and that’s why we’re 10-9 instead of much better. Too extreme.

A step in the right direction after last year in terms of money and roster building. Still much work to do. Let’s beat SJU and make a run at MSG.

 

[Piratz]

Helps that Novas non conference schedule is ranked 118 vs ours is 295. 20 wins and a schedule that wasn’t so crappy and I think we might be in but we played cupcakes all non conference

Maybe, if we played mid range instead of bottom it surely would’ve helped some metrics. What Nova did masterfully is avoided bad losses. They didn’t get swept by DePaul or lose to Butler. They went 14-1 against everyone other than the big 2.

And they got hammered in all 4 gamea against the top; Seton Hall played Connecticut and St. John’s much tighter, ironically.

We’d be in if we did the same, but not a strong seed. Spin the 2 home games around. 22-8, 12-7. But we couldn’t do that bc we’re an unbalanced team. Pretty remarkable to even be 10-9 carrying this, which I posted elsewhere: We’re now 362nd in 3PA:FGA and 296th in 2PT% too. 211th in TO%. They’re related. You see how BE teams attack us. Very predictable. Oh and 320th in 3PT%.

 

[The_Hall]

Maybe, if we played mid range instead of bottom it surely would’ve helped some metrics. What Nova did masterfully is avoided bad losses. They didn’t get swept by DePaul or lose to Butler. They went 14-1 against everyone other than the big 2.

And they got hammered in all 4 gamea against the top; Seton Hall played Connecticut and St. John’s much tighter, ironically.

We’d be in if we did the same, but not a strong seed. Spin the 2 home games around. 22-8, 12-7. But we couldn’t do that bc we’re an unbalanced team. Pretty remarkable to even be 10-9 carrying this, which I posted elsewhere: We’re now 362nd in 3PA:FGA and 296th in 2PT% too. 211th in TO%. They’re related. You see how BE teams attack us. Very predictable. Oh and 320th in 3PT%.

while we coulda won all 3 and shoulda beat creighton, earlier in the season we had 4 wins that shoulda been losses too. seemed to all even out.

 

[hallwins]

while we coulda won all 3 and shoulda beat creighton, earlier in the season we had 4 wins that shoulda been losses too. seemed to all even out.

I think the only win that should have been a loss was home to Creighton AND that evened out:
at Creighton
PC twice
Gtown
at Butler
X at home

We were down double digits in 2nd half in all those games I think, but dominated play from there on out for wins.

Any team that spreads the floor with good 3 point shooters compromises our D this year. Nova and DePaul both were able to do so.

I really wanted to avoid those two teams in BET.

 

[Piratz]

while we coulda won all 3 and shoulda beat creighton, earlier in the season we had 4 wins that shoulda been losses too. seemed to all even out.

Right. You can do this with many teams, even the top of the league has won many squeakers. Seton Hall, in particular, has simply not been good enough offensively to create large margins in wins over bad teams or beat good teams.

But if we’re looking at how we could’ve done more since we’re sitting here probably 2 games short of the NCAAT yet again with Sha, those are the games IMO. But we are what we are so let’s finish strong.

 

[NittanyPirate]

My thought is that as a whole schedule was crappy for a big east team. Maui was mediocre at best with 1 very good team, 1 mediocre team and 1 very bad team. The rest of the schedule looked like a Piekell made schedule where RU plays no one for the most part

Hindsight is 20/20. We knew the OOC schedule was no juggernaut but at the time most of us thought it was ok/decent.
Now we know it was very weak

 

[hallwins]

Kansas State and USC really hurt our schedule. But we win any 2 or 3 of our conference losses and we are sitting well for a bid.

 

[Piratz]

The noncon has become as much of a crapshoot as anything with teams forming and unknowns thanks to the professional free agency.

Look at the rosters of Kansas State and USC. MANY excellent players. But like professional sports you get clunkers despite spending at times.

 

[Seton75]

MQ had a tough OOC, lost them all, might have gotten them off on the wrong foot. IMO our OOC isnt our problem, it was good strategy. Its the bad BE losses.

And saying we ever gave Nova a game has to be followed with our Uconn and to a lesser extent SJ games

 

[Fishjam]

The noncon has become as much of a crapshoot as anything with teams forming and unknowns thanks to the professional free agency.

Look at the rosters of Kansas State and USC. MANY excellent players. But like professional sports you get clunkers despite spending at times.

Kansas State should have been a good win and USC should be better also. They lost one of their stars for the season in the game against us. Those 2 teams and the fact that we lost to USC and got Washington State instead of Arizona State hurt what should have been a stronger OOC. Oh and Rutgers being terrible hurt also.

So although our cream puff games were ultra soft, those games don't move the needle much anyway. We still had what should have been 5 P4 games, turned out to 4 and 2 of them turned out to be sub-100 KP P4s which is serious bad luck. #133 Wash State instead of #59 Arizona State made 3 sub 100 KPs WIns which did little for us

 

[shu09]

while we coulda won all 3 and shoulda beat creighton, earlier in the season we had 4 wins that shoulda been losses too. seemed to all even out.

Be careful, you're not allowed to say that on here! I got attacked for making the same point the other day. The record is exactly where it should be based on how they played. They're a classic .500 team. Won some they shouldn't have, lost some they shouldn't have. Bad offense, good defense.

 

[The_Hall]

k

Be careful, you're not allowed to say that on here! I got attacked for making the same point the other day. The record is exactly where it should be based on how they played. They're a classic .500 team. Won some they shouldn't have, lost some they shouldn't have. Bad offense, good defense.

let's see what happens vs SJU

 

[shu09]

k

let's see what happens vs SJU

Never know in these kind of environments. SJU needs it to win the league and SH needs it to keep any hope alive. Stranger things have happened. I expect a close game.

 

[dehere23]

k

let's see what happens vs SJU

I mean if we win Friday, we are 11-9 instead of 10-10. With this many games that isn’t changing perception. Even though it would be the best win of the season.

 

[donnie-baseball]

I think the only win that should have been a loss was home to Creighton AND that evened out:
at Creighton
PC twice
Gtown
at Butler
X at home

We were down double digits in 2nd half in all those games I think, but dominated play from there on out for wins.

Any team that spreads the floor with good 3 point shooters compromises our D this year. Nova and DePaul both were able to do so.

I really wanted to avoid those two teams in BET.

Agree with this, the only game we "stole" was home versus CU. No chance we "should have lost" 4 games that we won. On the flip side, @CU should have been locked up, and the USC game would be another. @ MSG we were up big, but there was way too much time left.