Looking at Stats for Different Lineup Combinations

Fishjam

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Changing starters and lineup combos have been talked about a lot among fans due to our constant slow starts and strong 2nd halfs. With that, let’s look at the numbers behind different lineups. These are from EvanMiya.com.

Sha has used 55 different lineup combinations for at least 5 possessions this season. Raising the minimum to 35 offensive possessions drops it to 11 combos so that’s what I’ll look at.

1769989482849.png

Our regular starting 5 has an adjusted Offensive Rating of 106.5, Defensive Rating of 87.1 for a Net of +19.3. This is the lowest Net Efficiency of the 11 Lineups with the exception of an offensively weak lineup without Budd Clark or AJSM..

Swapping Simpkins for Williams, we are 126.1 Off, 81.8 Def and +44.4 Net.

The only lineup better is the regular 5 but swapping Hines for Payne. 123.4 Off, 65.7 Def and +57.7 Net. That’s by far our best defensive lineup.

Our best offensive lineup is Clark, Dar, Hines, Simpkins & Staton-McCray at 139.7 Off. Its also our worst defensive lineup at 103.0 for a +36.7 Net.

So statistically, swapping Simpkins for Williams would improve our play by 25.1 points per 100 possessions. Or swapping Hines for Payne would be worth 38.4 points per 100 possessions. Those are major improvements. Making both of those changes would account for only 1.6 points per 100 possessions which is odd.

Those numbers are based on actual performance. If we look at predicted future performance the numbers are not as high but they still show we are not starting our optimal lineup combo.

Simpkins for Williams +36.6

Clark/AJ/Simp/Dar/Hines +33.9

Starting 5 with Hines for Payne +32.0

Clark/AJ/Simp/Fish/Hines +31.7

Starting 5 Predicted +24.5

Where do our lineups stack up with the rest of D1?

Based on 100 possession minimums, our lineup of Clark/AJ/Simp/Fish/Payne rates 28th in the country based on expected efficiency margin. Our regular starting 5 rates 141st in the country.

Even without the lineup combo performance, one can just look at the individual ratings of each player to see that there is a sizable difference between Simpkins and Williams. Hines and Payne are very similar based on yearly production and Fisher still rates as the the best 4 but his play has dropped off from the OOC.
1769988728091.png

What about 2-man pairs?

There are many other ways to evaluate lineups including looking at 2-man pairs, 3-man & 4-main pairs. Without digging too much, a couple of pertinent findings are when you look at Clark and who he pairs best with in 2-man lineups.

Our best 2-man pair is Clark & Simpkins followed by Clark & Hines. Clark & Payne do not pair well together. Parker & Payne surprisingly pair well together. Rivera & Hines pair well, Fisher & Hines do not. Payne & Rivera don’t pair well, Fisher & Payne do.

Conclusion

There are many ways to look at this but one thing that is certain is we aren’t starting our best 5 players or our best 5-player combo. Sha has other reasons for using the lineup he does with part of it being he wants some good players off the bench to provide balance when the starters are resting. I would make 1 change right now and that is Simpkins for Williams. That should help the team avoid the offensive slumps at the start of games.

Other potential moves that show would help would be Hines for Payne and potentially Rivera or Dar for Fisher. I wouldn’t make those changes at tip-off yet. One reason being I like Hines off the bench to avoid 2 quick fouls. Give him some time to watch how the game is being played and called. I’d see how the Simpkins change works out for a bit and continue to use whatever is the top performing unit to start the 2nd half. This should improve the starts without making a massive adjustment and put our best 5 on the floor to start the 2nd half when games are decided.
 

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Bud Boomer

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Great stuff, Fishjam. The two changes that need to happen have been obvious for a while. Hopefully Shaheen comes around to it.

Another thought, Shaheen said he doesn’t want to hurt anyone’s confidence (presumably referring to Fish and Williams), but maybe coming off the bench would help them relax and play more confidently. It’s not like he’s icing them out of the rotation.
 

hallwins

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I think this starter thing is a bit overblown.
We had a large first half lead v St.Johns in a hostile environment.

Against Marquette, it.was 15-14.@ the first official timeout.

Sha said at press conference that the defensive plan was to keep Marquette out of the lane. They carved us up and at halftime, they discussed it ans went to a more even type of defensive emphasis. I think that is as much a reason for the 2nd half reversal as Simpkins starting the 2nd half. He played well but had how many 3md half points.

Sha may like the advantage we get with Hines amd Simpkins getting first runs with either tired starters or back ups. Which could be another reason why some of the lineups Fish cites could perform so well.
 

joeyklings

Junior
Jan 27, 2024
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We have been leading at half in 3 conference games, trailed in 7, and tie @ Gtown. I’d say the lineups are definitely not overblown.
 

PQR

Sophomore
Jan 31, 2020
103
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Great stuff, Fishjam. The two changes that need to happen have been obvious for a while. Hopefully Shaheen comes around to it.

Another thought, Shaheen said he doesn’t want to hurt anyone’s confidence (presumably referring to Fish and Williams), but maybe coming off the bench would help them relax and play more confidently. It’s not like he’s icing them out of the rotation.
Can’t help their confidence to keep starting when they know they’re not producing. Simpkins for Williams seems like a no brainer.
 

hallwins

Senior
Sep 7, 2001
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We have been leading at half in 3 conference games, trailed in 7, and tie @ Gtown. I’d say the lineups are definitely not overblown.
You are attributing all the defecits to the starting lineup? We do sub in first half.
It was 15-14 minutes into game yesterday..

Clark avg 29 minute
ASM 25
Simpkins 25
Fisher 21
Williams 21
Payne 21
Hines 17
Parker 16
Rivera 12
Dar 10

Clark has been in 30s last few games.

The top 3 guys are going to play the most and be on the floor in crunch time.

I think see more Hines, but Payne still plays a ton.

The rest of the players will be interchangeable based on how anyone is playing on a given night. For example, Dar v. X and Rivera v. MARQUETTE.
 
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joeyklings

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The starting lineup has been the same in every single game.
We went down 11-2 vs Xavier.
We went down 10-7 vs Marq.
That is strictly on the starters.

I don’t blame the whole first half on just the starters, but if something clearly isn’t working. CHANGE IT
 

JTSHU

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Feb 9, 2015
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Great stuff, Fishjam. The two changes that need to happen have been obvious for a while. Hopefully Shaheen comes around to it.

Another thought, Shaheen said he doesn’t want to hurt anyone’s confidence (presumably referring to Fish and Williams), but maybe coming off the bench would help them relax and play more confidently. It’s not like he’s icing them out of the rotation.
And isnt it the same thing when u bench a player for playing like ****. Doesnt their confidence wane? So whats the diff u dont start em or bench em durimg the game
 

Fishjam

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Sha may like the advantage we get with Hines and Simpkins getting first runs with either tired starters or back ups. Which could be another reason why some of the lineups Fish cites could perform so well.
That's a logical thought but the numbers I used were "adjusted" based on the quality of opponent players faced by the lineup. The "Raw" numbers show a +27.3 difference by swapping Simpkins for Williams and +39.6 by swapping Hines for Payne.

These are the Raw, unadjusted numbers:

Our starting 5 Raw numbers are 103.3 Off, 94.8 Def, +8.1 Net.
Starters with Simpkins in, Williams out are 124.1 Off, 88.7 Def, +35.4 Net.
Starters with Hines in, Payne out are 120.0 Off, 72.3 Def, +47.7 Net
Clark/AJ/Simpkins/Dar/Hines are 139.0 Off, 105.3 Def, +33.8 Net
Clark/AJ/Simpkins/Fish/Hines are 102.6 Off, 94.7 Def, +7.9 Net
 
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HALL85

Heisman
Jul 5, 2001
29,809
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Great stats on the combinations. While the first half struggles are frustrating, the positive second half point differential they’ve achieved plays into their psyche. They play with confidence from behind and finish strong in the majority of games. Clark, AJSM and Simpkins are logging the most minutes but only in the high 20’s. (29, 26, 26). Saving them (especially Clark and Simpkins) shows in the second half. They are out hustling teams and are not coming up short on shots after the intermission. I think Sha steals mini with the 10 deep to create that.
 

hallwins

Senior
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That's a logical thought but the numbers I used were "adjusted" based on the quality of opponent players faced by the lineup. The "Raw" numbers show a +27.3 difference by swapping Simpkins for Williams and +39.6 by swapping Hines for Payne.

These are the Raw, unadjusted numbers:

Our starting 5 Raw numbers are 103.3 Off, 94.8 Def, +8.1 Net.
Starters with Simpkins in, Williams out are 124.1 Off, 88.7 Def, +35.4 Net.
Starters with Hines in, Payne out are 120.0 Off, 72.3 Def, +47.7 Net
Clark/AJ/Simpkins/Dar/Hines are 139.0 Off, 105.3 Def, +33.8 Net
Clark/AJ/Simpkins/Fish/Hines are 102.6 Off, 94.7 Def, +7.9 Net
Thanks for the analysis and clarity.
I suspect our most often played combination is Clark, Simpkins and whomever else. I believe this is the point and why who starts is not as important. Who plays the most, who is on the court in the last 5 minutes and whether you win are what matters.

Ww are playing these games like a boxing match it seems. Taking hits, adjusting at half, and then closing.

Sometimes it works, X and Marquette

Sometimes it does not, UConn

Sometimes you get out played, Nova, Butler, DePaul, and

Sometimes you dominate for the first 25 minutes, punch yourself out and can't sustain your opponent's push, St John's.

I don’t think who started these games makes nearly as much a difference as some. Just my opinion.

I felt the same way now as I did when there were calls to bench Dawes his senior year when we literally had no one with nearly as high a ceiling or floor for that matter to replace him.
 

JTSHU

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Feb 9, 2015
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Why dig a hole and then hope the spark off the bench brings us back? Why not try to get off to a better start and then figure out the rest of the game from there. Shaheen is worried about players getting down, but he yanks em when they arent playing well anyway. I get he wants to see them shoot their way out of it but its just not working. Budd taking over and being more agressive is big. However if u watch our halfcourt offense, theres so much standing around except for the 1 high pick and roll. I know shabeen doesnt want to run these guys 30+ min but u have no choice now w 9 games remaining. Hes givin every player a shot. Now its time to let the most talent rise to the top and give em more minutes. U can still play the less priductive guys but less minutes. Im sorry but if u give trey the same amount of time as budd at the pg spot then we are screwed
 

sobo1

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It’s extremely frustrating knowing the cause of, and solution to, a major problem but not doing anything about it.

Sha griped last postgame about the deficits and comebacks - it irony is unbelievable.
 
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hallwins

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It’s extremely frustrating knowing the cause of, and solution to, a major problem but not doing anything about it.

Sha griped last postgame about the deficits and comebacks - it irony is unbelievable.
Minutes played in last 2 games Marquette and Xavier

Clark 34 and 36
Simpkins 33 and 32
ASM 30 and 32
Payne. 24 and 15
Fisher 18 and 14
Rivera 18 and 3
Hines 15 and 17
Williams 15 and 11
Parker 9 and 9
Dar 4 and 22
Godswill 0 and 7

What are we really concerned about?
The best players are playing the most minutes by a wide margin. Also, means they are largely on the floor at the same time.
 
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PirateBlue08

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I think this starter thing is a bit overblown.
We had a large first half lead v St.Johns in a hostile environment.
The SJU game is the exception. The rule seems to be we don't come out with great energy, have a lackluster first half, and fall behind by 10+ and have droughts that can last for 8-12 minutes where we barely score.

As Fishjam noted, the stats demonstrate that certain players pair well together. That seems to me to be true just by watching the games before I even knew there were stats that also say this.

Seems this issue can be partly rectified by pairing those players together in a way that encourages their success as a unit. Rivera, Simpkins, and Hines in the starting lineup would do all of those things.
 

hallwins

Senior
Sep 7, 2001
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It’s extremely frustrating knowing the cause of, and solution to, a major problem but not doing anything about it.

Sha griped last postgame about the deficits and comebacks - it irony is unbelievable.
I don’t feel like the blown 10 point halftime lead at St John's was any better for Sha's health or our health for that matter. LOL

Team plays in spurts
D is always there, but we need to turn people over and score off the turnovers to really be effective.

Also,.hitting a borderline decent percentage of 3s helps.

Finally, we need to score on our offensive rebounds. We have too many "mebounds"
 
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hallwins

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Sep 7, 2001
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The SJU game is the exception. The rule seems to be we don't come out with great energy, have a lackluster first half, and fall behind by 10+ and have droughts that can last for 8-12 minutes where we barely score.

As Fishjam noted, the stats demonstrate that certain players pair well together. That seems to me to be true just by watching the games before I even knew there were stats that also say this.

Seems this issue can be partly rectified by pairing those players together in a way that encourages their success as a unit. Rivera, Simpkins, and Hines in the starting lineup would do all of those things.
Not just St John's
We are tied or a 1 point differential with Marquette at the 16 minute break.

Against Nova and UConn I think we were close when the score was in the 20s. Uconn spurted us the last few minutes of the half.
 
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Piratz

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I think this starter thing is a bit overblown.
We had a large first half lead v St.Johns in a hostile environment.

Against Marquette, it.was 15-14.@ the first official timeout.

Sha said at press conference that the defensive plan was to keep Marquette out of the lane. They carved us up and at halftime, they discussed it ans went to a more even type of defensive emphasis. I think that is as much a reason for the 2nd half reversal as Simpkins starting the 2nd half. He played well but had how many 3md half points.

Sha may like the advantage we get with Hines amd Simpkins getting first runs with either tired starters or back ups. Which could be another reason why some of the lineups Fish cites could perform so well.
I think it's pretty straightforward though:

**Simpkins and Staton-McCray are our best perimeter shooters and they do well creating their own offensive off the dribble. Way better than Parker or Williams at this stage.

**Hines is vastly superior to Payne offensively. He forces defenses to pay attention and can create space because of it. Everyone knows Payne is a put-back guy, not an offensive threat like Hines.

**The PF spot is a revolving door, so whomever is there will benefit from Hines on the court. Rivera is best at position, but Fisher can do more despite the clear funk he's in. I'd even consider playing Staton-McCray there when we have to.

So pairing the above with Clark seems optimal. This is why tempo, spacing, and effectiveness was so stark in the 2H over Xavier; because they started and kept playing together. But Sha has always been vulnerable to the lineups with strong defense and weak offensive players. Someday I hope we're not so manic on each end.
 

Fishjam

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Thanks for the analysis and clarity.
I suspect our most often played combination is Clark, Simpkins and whomever else. I believe this is the point and why who starts is not as important. Who plays the most, who is on the court in the last 5 minutes and whether you win are what matters.

Ww are playing these games like a boxing match it seems. Taking hits, adjusting at half, and then closing.

Sometimes it works, X and Marquette

Sometimes it does not, UConn

Sometimes you get out played, Nova, Butler, DePaul, and

Sometimes you dominate for the first 25 minutes, punch yourself out and can't sustain your opponent's push, St John's.

I don’t think who started these games makes nearly as much a difference as some. Just my opinion.

I felt the same way now as I did when there were calls to bench Dawes his senior year when we literally had no one with nearly as high a ceiling or floor for that matter to replace him.
In many respects I agree with you. I think as fans we are often too fast to look for solutions in lineup changes whereas as coaches look at it through the lense of trying to get players to execute/perform better. Just because a QB isn't playing great doesn't mean the backup will do any better.

With Dawes, I also felt he had to stay in the lineup as he was the only player who provided things we needed and there was no better option. The answer was working with him on execution and making better decisions with his shot selection. In this case, there is a better option in Simpkins and he brings things to the table that Williams does not. I haven't been vocal in pushing for it earlier because I know we need all of our players to play well and that there aren't additional minutes you can play Simpkins right now. He's averaged 31+ minutes the last 4 games which isn't ideal in Sha's system. Some guys can play heavy minutes and not be effected but Simpkins seems like a guy best suited to 26-28 minutes.

I'm all about preparing the team and playing our best players in the 2nd half. That's when games are decided and our team plays best when our backs are against the wall. We dial up the intensity and create chaos. That can only be done in spurts.

Sha is trying to balance the talent on his 1st and 2nd unit because he wants to play both to balance minutes and not have a huge drop-off when he goes to the bench. I get that and it would be ideal. But right now we are just getting both units struggling in the 1st half. The real problem lies with the fact that Fisher, Williams and Parker are all playing very poorly. If they were better there wouldn't be need for a lineup change. But with the situation the way it is, I think its worth trying some different combos to jumpstart the team because the starting 5 has been in an extended offensive funk
 

sobo1

Senior
Oct 15, 2023
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Minutes played in last 2 games Marquette and Xavier

Clark 34 and 36
Simpkins 33 and 32
ASM 30 and 32
Payne. 24 and 15
Fisher 18 and 14
Rivera 18 and 3
Hines 15 and 17
Williams 15 and 11
Parker 9 and 9
Dar 4 and 22
Godswill 0 and 7

What are we really concerned about?
The best players are playing the most minutes by a wide margin. Also, means they are largely on the floor at the same time.
There are a few issues…

1) the philosophy should be a meritocracy. The best combination of players should start. period.

2) starting your second worst statistical lineup is bizarre, but you very well know that these games often come down to a few plays here or there. A 5 minute stretch could have a massive impact on the game and voluntarily putting out your worst lineup against teams best lineup for the first 5 minutes of every game is foolish.

3) pick and choose your spots wisely. Be strategic. Play your worst lineup when opposing team subs out their best player, or when they are tired. Try to minimize the delta.
 

mbraue

Junior
Mar 2, 2010
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And isnt it the same thing when u bench a player for playing like ****. Doesnt their confidence wane? So whats the diff u dont start em or bench em durimg the game
And how about the notion of rewarding someone with a start who has been performing better than a starter? Presumably that would motivate the benched player to watch and learn and improve.

That said, if we need Simpkins at all costs down the stretch, maybe Sha does not want him to pick up silly, early fouls. But we are leaving offense on the bench for sure and that is something we can ill afford.

Of all the guys, Simpkins for Williams makes the most sense, and I can see Mike being fine coming in off the bench. He's been benched a few times in the second half anyway.
 

shu67

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Jun 12, 2021
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Terrific job with the stats but just like the baseball stats they don't really tell you what you can see with your own eyes. Offense sucks for the most part and the pressing defense keeps them in games, helps them make comebacks and aids the offense.
 

BobbieSolo

Sophomore
Dec 31, 2003
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Changing starters and lineup combos have been talked about a lot among fans due to our constant slow starts and strong 2nd halfs. With that, let’s look at the numbers behind different lineups. These are from EvanMiya.com.

Sha has used 55 different lineup combinations for at least 5 possessions this season. Raising the minimum to 35 offensive possessions drops it to 11 combos so that’s what I’ll look at.

View attachment 1173332

Our regular starting 5 has an adjusted Offensive Rating of 106.5, Defensive Rating of 87.1 for a Net of +19.3. This is the lowest Net Efficiency of the 11 Lineups with the exception of an offensively weak lineup without Budd Clark or AJSM..

Swapping Simpkins for Williams, we are 126.1 Off, 81.8 Def and +44.4 Net.

The only lineup better is the regular 5 but swapping Hines for Payne. 123.4 Off, 65.7 Def and +57.7 Net. That’s by far our best defensive lineup.

Our best offensive lineup is Clark, Dar, Hines, Simpkins & Staton-McCray at 139.7 Off. Its also our worst defensive lineup at 103.0 for a +36.7 Net.

So statistically, swapping Simpkins for Williams would improve our play by 25.1 points per 100 possessions. Or swapping Hines for Payne would be worth 38.4 points per 100 possessions. Those are major improvements. Making both of those changes would account for only 1.6 points per 100 possessions which is odd.

Those numbers are based on actual performance. If we look at predicted future performance the numbers are not as high but they still show we are not starting our optimal lineup combo.

Simpkins for Williams +36.6

Clark/AJ/Simp/Dar/Hines +33.9

Starting 5 with Hines for Payne +32.0

Clark/AJ/Simp/Fish/Hines +31.7

Starting 5 Predicted +24.5

Where do our lineups stack up with the rest of D1?

Based on 100 possession minimums, our lineup of Clark/AJ/Simp/Fish/Payne rates 28th in the country based on expected efficiency margin. Our regular starting 5 rates 141st in the country.

Even without the lineup combo performance, one can just look at the individual ratings of each player to see that there is a sizable difference between Simpkins and Williams. Hines and Payne are very similar based on yearly production and Fisher still rates as the the best 4 but his play has dropped off from the OOC.
View attachment 1173310

What about 2-man pairs?

There are many other ways to evaluate lineups including looking at 2-man pairs, 3-man & 4-main pairs. Without digging too much, a couple of pertinent findings are when you look at Clark and who he pairs best with in 2-man lineups.

Our best 2-man pair is Clark & Simpkins followed by Clark & Hines. Clark & Payne do not pair well together. Parker & Payne surprisingly pair well together. Rivera & Hines pair well, Fisher & Hines do not. Payne & Rivera don’t pair well, Fisher & Payne do.

Conclusion

There are many ways to look at this but one thing that is certain is we aren’t starting our best 5 players or our best 5-player combo. Sha has other reasons for using the lineup he does with part of it being he wants some good players off the bench to provide balance when the starters are resting. I would make 1 change right now and that is Simpkins for Williams. That should help the team avoid the offensive slumps at the start of games.

Other potential moves that show would help would be Hines for Payne and potentially Rivera or Dar for Fisher. I wouldn’t make those changes at tip-off yet. One reason being I like Hines off the bench to avoid 2 quick fouls. Give him some time to watch how the game is being played and called. I’d see how the Simpkins change works out for a bit and continue to use whatever is the top performing unit to start the 2nd half. This should improve the starts without making a massive adjustment and put our best 5 on the floor to start the 2nd half when games are decided.
You're a complete madman. This is a compliment.
 
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Why dig a hole and then hope the spark off the bench brings us back? Why not try to get off to a better start and then figure out the rest of the game from there. Shaheen is worried about players getting down, but he yanks em when they arent playing well anyway. I get he wants to see them shoot their way out of it but its just not working. Budd taking over and being more agressive is big. However if u watch our halfcourt offense, theres so much standing around except for the 1 high pick and roll. I know shabeen doesnt want to run these guys 30+ min but u have no choice now w 9 games remaining. Hes givin every player a shot. Now its time to let the most talent rise to the top and give em more minutes. U can still play the less priductive guys but less minutes. Im sorry but if u give trey the same amount of time as budd at the pg spot then we are screwed
I think the problem with this is in your paragraph. The half court offense is usually stagnant. Why we don't give Hines the first touch, and go from there, I don't know -- that's a whole other story. If we're going to push the ball up the court and rely on steals and putbacks for much of our offense, we can't do it with a 6 or 7 man rotation.
 
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Piratz

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If we could simply find a monicker of improvement shooting. Forget average, that seems to be too much, but simply not amongst the worst would be a big lift to give us some breathing room with that pressure defense

I think that be achieved with some different player combos he’s been using more lately. 💡

We also need to use timeouts like drunken sailors on leave when we’re in one of those 15-0 funks. The great coaches use them more for momentum than strategy. Who cares about the final minute when the game is spinning there.
 

hallwins

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If we could simply find a monicker of improvement shooting. Forget average, that seems to be too much, but simply not amongst the worst would be a big lift to give us some breathing room with that pressure defense

I think that be achieved with some different player combos he’s been using more lately. 💡

We also need to use timeouts like drunken sailors on leave when we’re in one of those 15-0 funks. The great coaches use them more for momentum than strategy. Who cares about the final minute when the game is spinning there.
So true on timeouts.
 

Hall Is Life

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Oct 15, 2019
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If we could simply find a monicker of improvement shooting. Forget average, that seems to be too much, but simply not amongst the worst would be a big lift to give us some breathing room with that pressure defense

I think that be achieved with some different player combos he’s been using more lately. 💡

We also need to use timeouts like drunken sailors on leave when we’re in one of those 15-0 funks. The great coaches use them more for momentum than strategy. Who cares about the final minute when the game is spinning there.
I guess the only difference now is you need to keep one in your back pocket in case there is a need to challenge a call. Sha learned that one the hard way earlier in the year. But yea, I agree. He's never in a position where he's running out of timeouts because he seemingly doesn't believe in them the way most coaches do.
 

JTSHU

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Guys arent even ready to shoot b4 the pass even comes. If the right players are open juat take em. Many times we give up open 3s to drive into multiple defenders. Whats the point to that
 
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NYC Pirate

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I did not see a stat line with Parker and Simpkins on the court at the same time without Clarke.I wonder how that production would look like if they flipped roles. Simpkins as the PG, bringing the ball up and feeding Parker in a more natural role. Simpkins might be more stable and Parker could operate in a more suitable position. Maybe Sha already tried this. Just curious?
 

SHUSource

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Oh and there’s this 🤣