Changing starters and lineup combos have been talked about a lot among fans due to our constant slow starts and strong 2nd halfs. With that, let’s look at the numbers behind different lineups. These are from EvanMiya.com.
Sha has used 55 different lineup combinations for at least 5 possessions this season. Raising the minimum to 35 offensive possessions drops it to 11 combos so that’s what I’ll look at.

Our regular starting 5 has an adjusted Offensive Rating of 106.5, Defensive Rating of 87.1 for a Net of +19.3. This is the lowest Net Efficiency of the 11 Lineups with the exception of an offensively weak lineup without Budd Clark or AJSM..
Swapping Simpkins for Williams, we are 126.1 Off, 81.8 Def and +44.4 Net.
The only lineup better is the regular 5 but swapping Hines for Payne. 123.4 Off, 65.7 Def and +57.7 Net. That’s by far our best defensive lineup.
Our best offensive lineup is Clark, Dar, Hines, Simpkins & Staton-McCray at 139.7 Off. Its also our worst defensive lineup at 103.0 for a +36.7 Net.
So statistically, swapping Simpkins for Williams would improve our play by 25.1 points per 100 possessions. Or swapping Hines for Payne would be worth 38.4 points per 100 possessions. Those are major improvements. Making both of those changes would account for only 1.6 points per 100 possessions which is odd.
Those numbers are based on actual performance. If we look at predicted future performance the numbers are not as high but they still show we are not starting our optimal lineup combo.
Simpkins for Williams +36.6
Clark/AJ/Simp/Dar/Hines +33.9
Starting 5 with Hines for Payne +32.0
Clark/AJ/Simp/Fish/Hines +31.7
Starting 5 Predicted +24.5
Where do our lineups stack up with the rest of D1?
Based on 100 possession minimums, our lineup of Clark/AJ/Simp/Fish/Payne rates 28th in the country based on expected efficiency margin. Our regular starting 5 rates 141st in the country.
Even without the lineup combo performance, one can just look at the individual ratings of each player to see that there is a sizable difference between Simpkins and Williams. Hines and Payne are very similar based on yearly production and Fisher still rates as the the best 4 but his play has dropped off from the OOC.

What about 2-man pairs?
There are many other ways to evaluate lineups including looking at 2-man pairs, 3-man & 4-main pairs. Without digging too much, a couple of pertinent findings are when you look at Clark and who he pairs best with in 2-man lineups.
Our best 2-man pair is Clark & Simpkins followed by Clark & Hines. Clark & Payne do not pair well together. Parker & Payne surprisingly pair well together. Rivera & Hines pair well, Fisher & Hines do not. Payne & Rivera don’t pair well, Fisher & Payne do.
Conclusion
There are many ways to look at this but one thing that is certain is we aren’t starting our best 5 players or our best 5-player combo. Sha has other reasons for using the lineup he does with part of it being he wants some good players off the bench to provide balance when the starters are resting. I would make 1 change right now and that is Simpkins for Williams. That should help the team avoid the offensive slumps at the start of games.
Other potential moves that show would help would be Hines for Payne and potentially Rivera or Dar for Fisher. I wouldn’t make those changes at tip-off yet. One reason being I like Hines off the bench to avoid 2 quick fouls. Give him some time to watch how the game is being played and called. I’d see how the Simpkins change works out for a bit and continue to use whatever is the top performing unit to start the 2nd half. This should improve the starts without making a massive adjustment and put our best 5 on the floor to start the 2nd half when games are decided.
Sha has used 55 different lineup combinations for at least 5 possessions this season. Raising the minimum to 35 offensive possessions drops it to 11 combos so that’s what I’ll look at.

Our regular starting 5 has an adjusted Offensive Rating of 106.5, Defensive Rating of 87.1 for a Net of +19.3. This is the lowest Net Efficiency of the 11 Lineups with the exception of an offensively weak lineup without Budd Clark or AJSM..
Swapping Simpkins for Williams, we are 126.1 Off, 81.8 Def and +44.4 Net.
The only lineup better is the regular 5 but swapping Hines for Payne. 123.4 Off, 65.7 Def and +57.7 Net. That’s by far our best defensive lineup.
Our best offensive lineup is Clark, Dar, Hines, Simpkins & Staton-McCray at 139.7 Off. Its also our worst defensive lineup at 103.0 for a +36.7 Net.
So statistically, swapping Simpkins for Williams would improve our play by 25.1 points per 100 possessions. Or swapping Hines for Payne would be worth 38.4 points per 100 possessions. Those are major improvements. Making both of those changes would account for only 1.6 points per 100 possessions which is odd.
Those numbers are based on actual performance. If we look at predicted future performance the numbers are not as high but they still show we are not starting our optimal lineup combo.
Simpkins for Williams +36.6
Clark/AJ/Simp/Dar/Hines +33.9
Starting 5 with Hines for Payne +32.0
Clark/AJ/Simp/Fish/Hines +31.7
Starting 5 Predicted +24.5
Where do our lineups stack up with the rest of D1?
Based on 100 possession minimums, our lineup of Clark/AJ/Simp/Fish/Payne rates 28th in the country based on expected efficiency margin. Our regular starting 5 rates 141st in the country.
Even without the lineup combo performance, one can just look at the individual ratings of each player to see that there is a sizable difference between Simpkins and Williams. Hines and Payne are very similar based on yearly production and Fisher still rates as the the best 4 but his play has dropped off from the OOC.

What about 2-man pairs?
There are many other ways to evaluate lineups including looking at 2-man pairs, 3-man & 4-main pairs. Without digging too much, a couple of pertinent findings are when you look at Clark and who he pairs best with in 2-man lineups.
Our best 2-man pair is Clark & Simpkins followed by Clark & Hines. Clark & Payne do not pair well together. Parker & Payne surprisingly pair well together. Rivera & Hines pair well, Fisher & Hines do not. Payne & Rivera don’t pair well, Fisher & Payne do.
Conclusion
There are many ways to look at this but one thing that is certain is we aren’t starting our best 5 players or our best 5-player combo. Sha has other reasons for using the lineup he does with part of it being he wants some good players off the bench to provide balance when the starters are resting. I would make 1 change right now and that is Simpkins for Williams. That should help the team avoid the offensive slumps at the start of games.
Other potential moves that show would help would be Hines for Payne and potentially Rivera or Dar for Fisher. I wouldn’t make those changes at tip-off yet. One reason being I like Hines off the bench to avoid 2 quick fouls. Give him some time to watch how the game is being played and called. I’d see how the Simpkins change works out for a bit and continue to use whatever is the top performing unit to start the 2nd half. This should improve the starts without making a massive adjustment and put our best 5 on the floor to start the 2nd half when games are decided.