OT: 2023 Golf Thread

Caliknight

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Sep 21, 2001
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Let’s say you have a bagel store that’s doing nice business. I open one next to you and give away bagels for free.

My business is trash, I’m burning cash by opening the store every morning. Let’s say I’ve got deep pockets and your pockets are only as deep as the success of your operations.

If my bagels are good enough (and they don’t have to be as good as yours), my cash-burning model will draw your customers to me: I’m disrupting your business. The former soundness of your model no longer matters. I’ll monetize my bagels when your shop closes.

When new entrants in a space have liquidity to withstand losses and willingness to absorb them, they can be very destructive to existing business.

I don’t know how it will play out, but I wouldn’t count out LIV just because they’re burning money. Sometimes that’s the point.

But to date the PGA's bagels aren't being impacted. Their payouts and ad sales have never been higher. In many respects, it's actually made them stronger.
 

Barnaby&Neill

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Dec 10, 2010
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But to date the PGA's bagels aren't being impacted. Their payouts and ad sales have never been higher. In many respects, it's actually made them stronger.

Yeah, and I’m rooting for them, but if the LIV tour is content to eat losses and pays enough to pluck more players, it might start to make a dent.
 

Caliknight

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Yeah, and I’m rooting for them, but if the LIV tour is content to eat losses and pays enough to pluck more players, it might start to make a dent.

Maybe. But it isn't likely. I can't see a bunch of guys jumping ship now which is what it would take. The initial wave and excitement is over. Now it's the product.

PGA tourneys have been great so far. Those guys that left, and I have no issue with it, didn't help their brand. They got paid though, which at the end of the day, is really why most of these guys play.

Bigger purses and more prestige along with being on network tv and the sponsorships that drives have the PGA in a much better spot.

LIV needed to make a bigger splash. They needed to get more players, specifically higher end American players, for this to be a real thing that can rival the PGA.
 
Jul 24, 2001
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Let’s say you have a bagel store that’s doing nice business. I open one next to you and give away bagels for free.

My business is trash, I’m burning cash by opening the store every morning. Let’s say I’ve got deep pockets and your pockets are only as deep as the success of your operations.

If my bagels are good enough (and they don’t have to be as good as yours), my cash-burning model will draw your customers to me: I’m disrupting your business. The former soundness of your model no longer matters. I’ll monetize my bagels when your shop closes.

When new entrants in a space have liquidity to withstand losses and willingness to absorb them, they can be very destructive to existing business.

I don’t know how it will play out, but I wouldn’t count out LIV just because they’re burning money. Sometimes that’s the point.

There's a limit to how much cash the Saudis will burn. That became obvious when the governor of the fund came out and said they were disappointed in the progress made and then quietly the COO of LIV quit to the surprise of many. They aren't in this for ***** and giggles. If it doesn't start making money, the Saudis are gonna bolt in a couple of years.

Your analogy is crude because while LIV might be a bagel shop, the one next door is Manhattan Bagels. They have deep pockets. They don't live paycheck to paycheck (granted they don't have the cash reserves of the Saudi fund). They ain't folding any time soon.
 

Barnaby&Neill

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Maybe. But it isn't likely. I can't see a bunch of guys jumping ship now which is what it would take. The initial wave and excitement is over. Now it's the product.

PGA tourneys have been great so far. Those guys that left, and I have no issue with it, didn't help their brand. They got paid though, which at the end of the day, is really why most of these guys play.

Bigger purses and more prestige along with being on network tv and the sponsorships that drives have the PGA in a much better spot.

LIV needed to make a bigger splash. They needed to get more players, specifically higher end American players, for this to be a real thing that can rival the PGA.

I think the world ranking thing plays a role too. Has to hurt some pride and egos when these LIV guys don’t see their names in the rankings. I wasn’t making a prediction, just warning that a willingness to lose money can do some damage.
 
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Jul 24, 2001
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Said this from the start. I don't care how much cash the Saudi's have, they aren't going to continue funding an investment with no return. It's simply bad business.

I suspect they are going to hold on for a few years but at some point, this isn't just sports washing for them. They aren't throwing away a billion dollars for fun here.

I think it all comes down to CW. If they can somehow generate an audience and enough sponsors to then catch the eye of one of the larger networks, they have some staying power. If the CW thing bombs out in a year or two, LIV is on death watch.
 
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Caliknight

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For sure that does. These guys are never spoken about, no one sees them on tv, and they are playing novelty golf.

It's going to be interesting when LIV folds, what do they do then and will the PGA tour accept them without playing qualifiers and such? Can't see that happening.

At the end of it all, I wonder if this is a net win for the big guys there. The hasbeens or never will be's, sure.
 
Jul 24, 2001
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Yeah, and I’m rooting for them, but if the LIV tour is content to eat losses and pays enough to pluck more players, it might start to make a dent.

But the Saudis won't continue to eat losses for long.

LIV has to make a turnaround and it has to start this year IMO. They don't have to be great this year but they have to show some life on CW, for example.

And at this point, I can't see how they pluck away any more of the top players. They grabbed Munoz and Mita a few days ago but those guys aren't needle movers. I don't think LIV can add anymore big time needle movers at this point unless they really take off or something goes awry with the PGA Tour.
 

Barnaby&Neill

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Your analogy is crude because while LIV might be a bagel shop, the one next door is Manhattan Bagels. They have deep pockets. They don't live paycheck to paycheck (granted they don't have the cash reserves of the Saudi fund). They ain't folding any time soon.

Well, I doubt the pga sits on reservoirs of cash. It leverages its brand, players, and tournaments to generate a lot of revenue that then goes back out the door to the players, to the tournaments, to salaries and normal operating expenses, and efforts to grow the game. It’s a non-profit, a lucrative one, but it’s not hoarding retained earnings like a normal business.

If the allure of the events were to be diminished, the cash flow would likely start to fall as well (maybe tv contracts and such would create a timing mismatch to the pga’s benefit).

If it were a true spending war, I’d pick the Saudis for sure. To your point, they may decide the execution of the product is poor and therefore unlikely to succeed and not worth the losses. (Bagels so bad you can’t give them away!)
 

Jtung230

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Jun 30, 2005
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Saudi has allocated X to this and they will not add to it if it’s not going anywhere. Seen this on other business they invested in.
 
Jul 24, 2001
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Well, I doubt the pga sits on reservoirs of cash. It leverages its brand, players, and tournaments to generate a lot of revenue that then goes back out the door to the players, to the tournaments, to salaries and normal operating expenses, and efforts to grow the game. It’s a non-profit, a lucrative one, but it’s not hoarding retained earnings like a normal business.

If the allure of the events were to be diminished, the cash flow would likely start to fall as well (maybe tv contracts and such would create a timing mismatch to the pga’s benefit).

If it were a true spending war, I’d pick the Saudis for sure. To your point, they may decide the execution of the product is poor and therefore unlikely to succeed and not worth the losses. (Bagels so bad you can’t give them away!)

Would you be surprised to find out that they sit on over $225 million in cash reserves?
 

Knightmoves

Heisman
Jul 31, 2001
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Good finish at Riviera today. Tiger played well alongside Rory and JT. Looks like he should make the cut tomorrow.
 

Jtung230

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Tiger can still play golf. Not sure he can walk 4 days but the swing, short game and putter look good.
 

Section124

Heisman
Dec 21, 2002
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I would not be surprised about Koepka. This is also my concern about guys like Cam going to LIV. These guys are used to grinding on the tour and playing most weeks. Although playing less sounds good, my take from the beginning is there are not enough starts to keep these guys happy. Obviously they don't want to play as much as the PGA Tour requires, but if golf is what you do, you need to do it.
 
Jul 24, 2001
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Didn’t LIV burn $800 million last year?

Yeah as a complete start up and throwing oodles of money at players trying to get them to join the tour.

The PGA doesn't have to do that. They aren't throwing $100+ million signing bonuses at players like LIV had to. Do you think the Saudis are going to continue to throw $800 million a year into this if they aren't getting some sort of return soon?

You were the one that brought this whole concept of the PGA fading away because they don't have the money to compete with LIV but the PGA can stay on for years and years as they currently stand. LIV, on the otherhand, has a big investor with an itchy trigger finger who already signaled just in December that they aren't happy with where things are.
 

Knightmoves

Heisman
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LIV’s first tourney of 2023 is next weekend in Cancun area. Will be interesting to see tv numbers on CW.

PGA Tour is in FL at Honda Classic at PGA National.

This is the first tv head to head competition between LIV and PGA tour.

 
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Barnaby&Neill

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Yeah as a complete start up and throwing oodles of money at players trying to get them to join the tour.

The PGA doesn't have to do that. They aren't throwing $100+ million signing bonuses at players like LIV had to. Do you think the Saudis are going to continue to throw $800 million a year into this if they aren't getting some sort of return soon?

You were the one that brought this whole concept of the PGA fading away because they don't have the money to compete with LIV but the PGA can stay on for years and years as they currently stand. LIV, on the otherhand, has a big investor with an itchy trigger finger who already signaled just in December that they aren't happy with where things are.

No, I didn’t bring it up, I replied to your post about the PGA’s firm financial footing and noted that if LIV (or any business) has the willingness and liquidity to absorb heavy losses, there is potential for them to be extremely disruptive.

I am rooting for pga and make no predictions about how it will play out. PGA’s financial footing isn’t their strength in the battle. For them the risk is something of a loop: if they lose stars, their revenue will likely go down (assuming fewer stars = fewer eyeballs), which could result in smaller purses, which causes stars to flee, and so on. I don’t care if they have $5 million or $250 million of reserves, if it turns into a cash attrition war, they’ll lose. For LIV the risk is just loss of patience on the part of their financiers…that might be the most likely outcome.
 
Jul 24, 2001
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No, I didn’t bring it up, I replied to your post about the PGA’s firm financial footing and noted that if LIV (or any business) has the willingness and liquidity to absorb heavy losses, there is potential for them to be extremely disruptive.

I am rooting for pga and make no predictions about how it will play out. PGA’s financial footing isn’t their strength in the battle. For them the risk is something of a loop: if they lose stars, their revenue will likely go down (assuming fewer stars = fewer eyeballs), which could result in smaller purses, which causes stars to flee, and so on. I don’t care if they have $5 million or $250 million of reserves, if it turns into a cash attrition war, they’ll lose. For LIV the risk is just loss of patience on the part of their financiers…that might be the most likely outcome.

But it won't turn into a cash attrition war. That's the point. The Saudis aren't going to throw tons of cash at this thing forever. Again, when the governor of the fund stated in December that they were largely disappointed with where LIV was and then the COO kind of quietly quit, that started the clock ticking IMO. Per court reports, the Saudis have sunk about $2B into this. They aren't going to do that much longer (maybe a couple more seasons), if LIV doesn't start to show it's a viable business entity.
 
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Knightmoves

Heisman
Jul 31, 2001
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Weird. The Genesis only has three golfers playing in it this year.

Just Tiger, Rory and Thomas. Strange.

At least that's all I saw on the Golf Channel.
John Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are chopped meat?

Add Morikawa and Homa to the list at Genesis.
 
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Knightmoves

Heisman
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Late Saturday it looks like match play among the final group of Homa, Rahm and Keith Mitchell.

Homa and Rahm belong to the same country club in Scottsdale, Silverleaf GC in DC Ranch. 300K initiation fee and 2K per month dues, plus cart/caddy fees and dining. And there is a long waiting list to get in.

Rahm up 3 over Homa after round 3. He will be tough to beat tomorrow.
 
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rcube1994

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Feb 3, 2004
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Late Saturday it looks like match play among the final group of Homa, Rahm and Keith Mitchell.

Homa and Rahm belong to the same country club in Scottsdale, Silverleaf GC in DC Ranch. 300K initiation fee and 2K per month dues, plus cart/caddy fees and dining. And there is a long waiting list to get in.

Rahm up 3 over Homa after round 3. He will be tough to beat tomorrow.
Thought they were members at whisper rock?
 

RUScrew85

Heisman
Nov 7, 2003
30,054
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Late Saturday it looks like match play among the final group of Homa, Rahm and Keith Mitchell.

Homa and Rahm belong to the same country club in Scottsdale, Silverleaf GC in DC Ranch. 300K initiation fee and 2K per month dues, plus cart/caddy fees and dining. And there is a long waiting list to get in.

Rahm up 3 over Homa after round 3. He will be tough to beat tomorrow.

Keith Mitchell will be lucky to finish in the top ten playing with those two on a Sunday in a big tourney.
 

RUScrew85

Heisman
Nov 7, 2003
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So I'm still watching this on Delay.

Tiger looks exhausted. Likely just out of shape but maybe age and injuries have caught up with him.
 

RUScrew85

Heisman
Nov 7, 2003
30,054
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Sad to say but Tiger is mostly a side show at this point.

Well at his age most golfers are prepping for the Round Belly Tour.

Maybe he improves with continued play - his drive distance seemed fine.

Or maybe he just takes long shots at majors to try to get the record.

Either way he's not short money.