Ya, people want to make this into either "TSLA will be the only EV player in 10 years" vs "TSLA is going to get crushed". It is certainly somewhere in the middle of those two.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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Just going to throw a theory out there, but I think right now the retail investors will raise the bar, while the institutions will provide the support.
Institutions will definitely raise the floor on any BTC correction. The more institutional support, the higher the bottom plateau. That would help with the volatility.
Mostly EVs in the next 5-10 years?
* What is the % of non-EV cars on the road today and how many of them will still be on the road in 5 years? 10 years?
* What is the % on new cars sold this year, next year, in 5 years will be EVs?
* At what rate are charging stations being built? How many would be available for those who live in apartments or condos which would require extensive renovations to provide charging.
*With coal, nuclear and natural gas generation being shut down (or attempted to be shut down), how will electricity be provided for 100 millions on new EVs? Particularly when the sun doesn't shine or the wind blow?
5-10 years? Ivdon'tvthink so.
I'm talking about new car purchases, not cars on the road. Will over 50% of cars bought in 2030 be EVs? Probably a reasonable forecast.
GM plans to be fully electric by 2035. Are they blowing smoke? Maybe. But seems like a very large statement to make if they don't plan on sticking to it.
I'd also say your first point is irrelevant to this particular discussion. The relevant question is not what % of cars on the road will be EV by such and such a date. The question is, what % of cars sold will be EV.
Now if we are talking where will oil companies be in 10 years, then that point is important.
I think these are important questions. But I wouldn't use them as an argument against EV's. I'd use them as per where I want to invest my money moving fwd.
1)Charging stations. See BLNK.
2)Power generations. See solar and wind. What about no wind or sun situations, see power storage, again batteries, again lithium, hydrogen fuel cells.
Jeremy Grantham talked about it in the video posted a couple pages back. Green is where you want your money, and that is where the money has gone.
Forgot to mention, emerging markets are popping nicely as well. The EEM index is +8.84% YTD (which I have in 2 of my retirement accounts) and my international growth managed fund (heavy lean to emerging markets) is up +8.95%.
Value is underperforming growth, but it is closer than last year.
RWBYF making some positives moves in the cannabis market. Canadian company but they have growing roots in the US.
I already own IIPR, CRLBF and SNDL. SNDL I see more as a trade unless they turn their revenue's around. IIPR and CRLBF I'm holding as they have had and are expecting to continue with impressive revenue and earning growth. IIPR has seen a more conservative move in price, while SNDL has seen the most extreme recent move, and I probably should pare it down at least.
RWBYF has doubled since mid Dec.
I already own IIPR, CRLBF and SNDL. SNDL I see more as a trade unless they turn their revenue's around. IIPR and CRLBF I'm holding as they have had and are expecting to continue with impressive revenue and earning growth. IIPR has seen a more conservative move in price, while SNDL has seen the most extreme recent move, and I probably should pare it down at least.
RWBYF has doubled since mid Dec.
So you think they wait until 2035 and then flip a switch?
If they are not 50% in 10 years then they are behind schedule. Which could happen I guess.
I looked into the cannabis market a bit, but it definitely has a mixed record over the past 3-4 years. Lots of disruption and dust to settle. One of the ETFs may be interesting, but as of now, I am focused on ARK, EV, semiconductors, and cryptos. Can't do everything!
No dogecoin!?!?!?This is my "fun" account! Just for the crypto market. When in Rome! Our 7 retirement accounts are still all funds and efts.
My crypto portfolio = GBTC, ETHE, Hive, Galaxy, and Argo Blockchain
Do yourself a favor. In your funny bag portfolio, just avoid SPACs
Any SPACs that come to mind? Are they common in the cannabis space? FYI, just looked at a list of SPAC. I think I'm good. Not familiar with the term much.
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If you're looking to hold rather than day trade in the cannons sector look at an ETF, MJ.
You also need to look at wealth disparity for the pace of adoption, NYCHA can't even keep the heat consistatly operating, so they're going to build and maintain charging stations? What about the city dwellers who park on the streets? And although it may not be common in the Tri-State area, what about middle income home owners for whom purchasing a charging station may be an economically prohibitive cost.
@Rutgers Chris
SPAC is an acronym for Special Purpose Acquisition Corp. They don’t have a great return history as an “asset” class, and their structure makes it more conducive to fraudulent or misleading disclosure. They are also referred to as blank check companies, and I fear that the deal sponsors and initial buyers of SPACs often take advantage of individual investors. Many businesses use the structure as a means to go public without going through the IPO process. This can lead to less diligence and disclosure about the business and its liabilities.
A recent example is Clover Health.
Need your WSJ paywall bypass abilities again for Jason Zweig. This weeks column might be of slight interest to this thread, Cathie Woods and ARK.
If you're a 30 second trader, NOT a day trader and have it on screen the whole day have fun. Hope you won't have to take a piss. Otherwise don't touch it.
If you do your due diligence, you can trade SPACs as long as you go for single and doubles, not homeruns. The Clover Health stock started as a SPAC. Its symbol was IPOB which I sold about 6-7 dollars above my buy price.
Three things to look at when you want to buy a SPAC, 1) see who its run by. Someone like Richard Branson, or Blackrock, not Kim Kardashian, 2) know which company the SPAC is looking to merge with, CCIV merging with Lucid Motors ran the SPAC from 10 to its current 33 price. 3) unless you feel the company that the SPAC is merging with shows great potential, sell the SPAC before the merger (as I did with IPOB/Clover health).
Almost all SPACS go public at $10 (Ackmann's went public at $25). Once I knew who they were targeting, I'd buy in, usually by then the SPAC was $14-16. Decide your target sell price and don't be a pig.
You are not equipped to perform the required diligence as an individual investor, and even supposed well known operators can sponsor acquisitions where key information is not dislocated. There is a reason the IPO process is a long, tedious one. Underwriters and their lawyers would be liable for failing to disclose information that Clover withheld. And the investment performance of SPACs as a whole have been poor.
Thank you Frida’s Boss, was curious about your thinking. I definitely think the spac craze is a bit overdone but I’ve had a ton of success with them. I’m avoiding those led by celebrities and whatnot, but I agree with Scarlet Nut’s line of thinking. I’ve invested in CCIV, Peter Thiel’s backed BTWN, and all of Chamath’s recent ventures- Clov, IPOD/E/F.
I'm not a financial analyst yet have made money on at least a half dozen SPACs. I followed the points I posted and sold before the mergers. All my buys and sells were done within 45 days. Dozens of new SPACs pop up almost weekly so your post is overall correct. A little work however can make it profitable.
Everyone is a genius in a bull market craze, feel free to ignore my comments.,
I'm not ignoring nor besmirching your post. I feel you are a valued poster in this thread. I'm just saying there are ways to make some money in this sector if done prudently. I'm sure the SPAC market will dry up in a bear market. No company wants to go public when things are headed south. During markets like these, grab as much as possible while you can and also protect yourself for when the bull stops running.
This survey has already been discussed in another thread. Tesla has fit and finish issues. No doubt. They DON'T have battery, software, or power train issues. Would you weigh all of these issues the same? I wouldn't, and neither would the other posters who commented on this. But, that's exactly what JD Power did. Should a 3mm panel gap or a paint swirl be weighed the same as a faulty engine or power train? Up to you to decide.
And I view your experience, while, real, as lucky. To me, such are the signs of a bull market at the top.
Unfortunately, when individual investors start to believe they can trade around areas that are tailor made for fraud, and tout their success in doing so, the bell is close to ringing.
This is a bit bearish, but CW and ARK has a great record over the past 4 years. I'm sure there will be bumps in the road, but the rewards will likely outweigh the risks.
Cathie Wood Has Wall Street's Hottest Hand. Maybe Too Hot.
BY JASON ZWEIG, MARKETWATCH - 6:10 PM ET 2/5/2021
While the world has been mesmerized by the crazy gyrations of a handful of stocks over the past couple of weeks, Cathie Wood has kept on minting money for her investors as few money managers ever have.
Ms. Wood is chief executive and chief investment officer of ARK Investment Management LLC of New York, which is not only today's hottest fund manager but one of the hottest performers of all time.
Such success for other managers, however, has often carried the seeds of its own undoing (https://jasonzweig.com/ mutual-funds-and-mr-creosote/). It's almost inevitable that when funds get too big, too fast, they can't sustain their performance.
That's partly because all that money makes it hard for fund managers to maneuver as nimbly as they did when they were small. Copycats mimic their every move, and it's a lot easier to sell a few shares of a stock on the way up than it is to sell oodles of them on the way down.
ARK runs five exchange-traded funds for which Ms. Wood and her team of 11 analysts and portfolio managers actively invest in companies they believe will change the world through what they call "disruptive innovation (https://ark- invest.com/big-ideas-2021/)."
Since its launch in October 2014, ARK Innovation, the firm's largest fund, has delivered an average return of 39% annually. Had you invested $10,000 at the fund's inception, it would have been worth more than $78,000 this week; the same stake in the S&P 500 would have amounted to less than $22,000.
Money chases performance. ARK managed a total of $11.4 billion at the end of March 2020. By year end, that had swollen to $58.2 billion.
Among the earliest institutional investors to buy both Tesla(TSLA) Inc. stock and bitcoin, Ms. Wood is an eloquent evangelist for assets she believes are on "exponential growth trajectories."
Already, Ark has to contend with mimicry. So far, a smartphone app and at least three websites have sprung up that purport to track Ark's daily trades (). In reddit's sometimes raunchy online WallStreetBets forum, members call Ms. Wood Cathie Bae (https://www.reddit.com/r/ wallstreetbets/comments/kfm3nj/cathie_wood_retaining_control_over_ark_funds/)(short for "babe" or "before anyone else"), and traders talk about buying ARK's favorite stocks and what the firm might invest in next.
This year, stocks are lifting off even before ARK buys them. On Jan. 13 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/ 1579982/000110465921003837/tm212832d1_485apos.htm), the firm filed a prospectus to launch a new fund, ARK Space Exploration ETF. Although the fund hasn't yet received regulatory clearance, satellite and other space-related stocks shot up 8% to 10% the next day.
Size also can become an impediment. When you have millions of dollars, you can easily invest in a few small companies. Once you have billions, you may have to spread investments across more and bigger companies; otherwise, your trades could wreak havoc on your holdings (https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/01/22/295549/ index.htm). Many fast-growing asset managers have changed their investing style, incurred much higher trading costs or simply suffered a severe decline in performance (https://jasonzweig.com/the-velocity-of-learning-and-the-future-of- active-management/).
ARK is already a big owner of some small stocks. At Israeli biotech company Pluristem Therapeutics(PSTI) Inc., with a total stock-market value of $219 million, ARK holds 15.5% of the shares outstanding (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/ data/1158780/000110465921002913/tm212782d2_sc13g.htm). That's three times as much as all other institutional owners combined. At a French biotech, Cellectis(ALCLS.FR) S.A., with a $900 million market value, ARK owns 11.5%--more than the next 11 largest holders combined.
Although those two positions make up barely 0.5% of ARK's total assets, they reflect the firm's style.
According to FactSet, 43.5% of ARK's total equity holdings are in stocks of which the firm owns at least a tenth of all shares outstanding. At Vanguard Group, by contrast, only 9.7% of total equity positions are in such concentrated holdings.
If ARK ever needs to sell any of those holdings, who will buy in enough bulk to keep prices from collapsing?
In an interview, Ms. Wood says that as markets rise, ARK diversifies into larger companies. They form a kind of war chest that ARK can tap into "during downturns, when our less-liquid stocks will be hit disproportionately, giving us better bargains," she says. In other words, ARK counts on being able to sell some big stocks to buy smaller ones when those become even cheaper--as it did successfully during last year's severe bear market.
Also, many of ARK's smaller companies are issuing additional shares, "and it is with our encouragement sometimes," says Ms. Wood. "We want our companies to invest aggressively today," because ARK believes these businesses should be financing their unparalleled opportunities for future growth.
As a result of new stock offerings, those companies' shares are becoming more liquid over time, she says.
What might happen if the same investors who flung billions of dollars into ARK's funds over the past year yank the money back out?
"Not concerned about it," says Ms. Wood. "I mean, Tesla a year ago was 10 times smaller than it is today." "That's telling us, reinforcing our sense, that the market is beginning to understand the exponential growth opportunities out there," which will create ample liquidity over time, she says.
Even so, I worry about ARK's outsize positions in relatively few stocks, where it is often the biggest boat in a small pond.
At my request, Elisabeth Kashner, director of funds research at FactSet, analyzed the liquidity of ARK's holdings. She calculates that if investors sold enough shares of ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK) to cause a $1 billion redemption, that would require 14.5% of the recent trading volume of its underlying holdings, on average, to change hands. For Vanguard Total World Stock ETF(VT), by comparison, a $1 billion block sale would involve an average of only 0.6% of total trading volume in that fund's stocks.
"Any selling of this kind is likely to be on a significantly higher-than-average volume day" in ARK's holdings, says the firm's chief operating officer, Tom Staudt. So ARK's trades would likely be less of the resulting market-wide total than FactSet's numbers imply, he says.
Given ARK Innovation's massive $25 billion in assets, "it is reasonable to worry about the market impact of $1 billion exiting the fund in a single day," says Ms. Kashner. If a redemption of that size occurred, she says, "downward pressure on the fund constituents would be nearly inevitable."
An old Wall Street proverb warns that it can be hard to get out of stocks when markets go bad: "Liquidity is there only when you don't need it."
Another warns, "When you have a few shares of a stock, you own it, but when you have lots of shares, then the stock owns you."
Write to Jason Zweig at [email protected] (mailto:[email protected])
-Jason Zweig; 415-439-6400; [email protected]
It’s an interesting article that is really suggesting that the realities of asset management might mean her best return days are behind her. of course, if she delivered returns at 20% per annum clip, she’d be a hero, so there is lots of room for her to be successful yet well below her returns of the past two years. Zweig is right, though. Size is the enemy of returns.
He raises a somewhat ominous topic, too. What happens when a vehicle with daily liquidity meets a surge in redemptions when the vehicle holds less liquid investments? In short, it can be a disaster. That said, I’m not sure her holdings are THAT illiquid to be a major concern though as her size increases, she might be forced to be a very large holder of her businesses. That could lead to disruption.
As much as I'm bullish on ARK, do I expect 150% returns in 2021 and beyond? Hell no. Even CW says to expect double returns over the next 5 years (which is about that 20% you cite). I understand the issue about size, but by no means is ARKK (the flagship etf) that large in relative terms. I started jumping into ARKK in early Jan. Great returns so far. What I really liked is that ARKK made a 3% return in 2018, which was a down year. They still overperformed.
This long bull market will end sooner or later, but probably not in 2021. And perhaps not even in 2022, which is a national election year. Interestingly, CW in one of the videos that I posted voiced concern over the new stimulus bill. She thinks it is way too big and may lead to inflation. Some inflation is okay, but too much would likely end the Fed's party.
We shall see!
I suggest you check out the specs and features on the Cybertruck before calling it impractical.