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OT: Stock and Investment Thread

Caliknight

Caliknight

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Sep 21, 2001
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BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine said:
And what "disinfectant"? Hint: it was already discussed here moron. #CatsupTime again

Toby? oops someone mixed-up his username lol.
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Why do the have the same creepy guy picture? Who is that?
 
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rutgersguy1_rivals

Heisman
Dec 17, 2008
45,214
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rurahrah000 said:
Well folks... we have now fundamentally changed our way of doing things. After discussing with several economists and politicians, most of whom know and understand these things way more than me, I have come to a few conclusions. We are now full swing into populism and nationalism. Lots of honest and true conservatives are realizing today that there is a big difference between conservatism and populism/ nationalism. Most are probably having buyer's remorse. But I digress.

In terms of the stock market, this is going to fundamentally change the way we think about the market. We are doing a 180 degree turn from globalism. No one really knows how this will affect the stock market a year from now. I have a strong feeling that these tariffs are not a negotiation tool, but rather a way to bring manufacturing back to the USA and attempt to revive the middle class. This has the potential to decrease the wealth gap that has been building for the past several decades. Bringing manufacturing back to the USA will however result in decreased consumption particularly due to increased costs. There is no way we will be able to produce things as cheaply as China, etc. even with these robots (which are still a pipe dream) as being discussed by Howard Lutnick. Interestingly with decreased consumption, it may end up saving the environment. There is likely to be a recession in the next 1 year and there is almost no guarantee that we will come out the other end better off than we are today.

My advice is to look for companies that are heavily reliant on China, Vietnam etc. to not only produce their goods, but to sell large quantities of items and short them. Companies that are less concerned with global trade will be better off. However, no one will be spared from a downturn.
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I don’t think moving “low skilled”manufacturing here en masse is a realistic goal. It’s also a cost intensive endeavor that would likely take 5-10 years for any company and a different admin could change the rules altogether and then what for the companies that made all those investments
 
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Caliknight

Caliknight

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Define low skilled. Is that the guys in car manufacturing plants that have been sitting idle and are now getting turned on? That's not taking 5-10 years. And even if that did, it's still an investment in the future. I applaud the administration for being the first I've seen to not take the candy right in front of them and kick the can down the road.
 
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rutgersguy1_rivals

Heisman
Dec 17, 2008
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Caliknight said:
Define low skilled. Is that the guys in car manufacturing plants that have been sitting idle and are now getting turned on? That's not taking 5-10 years. And even if that did, it's still an investment in the future. I applaud the administration for being the first I've seen to not take the candy right in front of them and kick the can down the road.
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Making clothes, making toys, making whatever everyday things we use that are mostly manufactured overseas. That kind of stuff isn’t likely to be made here on any significant level.

if anything it might move to other countries with lower tariffs (SA or LA) as opposed to here but even that will take time too. These things just don’t happen on a dime and when the admin changes will the tariffs/rules change too and then were those investments worth it if you made them.
 
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rurahrah000

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rutgersguy1 said:
I don’t think moving “low skilled”manufacturing here en masse is a realistic goal. It’s also a cost intensive endeavor that would likely take 5-10 years for any company and a different admin could change the rules altogether and then what for the companies that made all those investments
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I think that is absolutely the plan. Move most manufacturing back to America and revive the middle class and Midwest.
 
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Joey Bags

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FWIW, the focus point of on-shoring manufacturing in the US isn’t to bring jobs back, it's the physical act of having the good produced here or input sourced from here. If jobs are created or on-shored as a result that’s icing in the cake, but that’s an ancillary objective.

The Trump Admin’s huge IoT/AI investment braintrust of which Oracle is a leader is supposed to help pairing said manufacuring onshoring with the appropriate technologies to allow companies to continue to produce volume at a competitive price. Now who knows if this works or ends up as a disaster, but this is the concept.
 
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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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rurahrah000 said:
I think that is absolutely the plan. Move most manufacturing back to America and revive the middle class and Midwest.
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I have to believe its literally impossible to move most manufacturing back to America. Especially the cheap walmart type stuff.

But balancing it to some extent, with a focus on higher end products, and products important to national security, sounds like a realistic and worthwhile goal.
 
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Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
18,970
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T2Kplus20 said:
You should be proud of me. Haven't bought anything today! Yet. :)
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I will dip my toes in once the tariffs are reversed. I think it has to end 6 months before midterms or he takes a victory lap when someone gives him enough to claim victory.
 
BossNJ

BossNJ

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Oct 6, 2020
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jtung230 said:
I will dip my toes in once the tariffs are reversed. I think it has to end 6 months before midterms or he takes a victory lap when someone gives him enough to claim victory.
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Either way there will be the meaningless victory lap
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,863
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jtung230 said:
I will dip my toes in once the tariffs are reversed. I think it has to end 6 months before midterms or he takes a victory lap when someone gives him enough to claim victory.
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If this is the high-water mark for tariffs, the market is currently at max fear. Any marginal improvement will cause a nice rally. There are only 6 countries/markets (including the EU) that really matter. And most of them are already in negotiations. Let's see what happens.
 
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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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T2Kplus20 said:
If this is the high-water mark for tariffs, the market is currently at max fear. Any marginal improvement will cause a nice rally. There are only 6 countries/markets (including the EU) that really matter. And most of them are already in negotiations. Let's see what happens.
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Brown thought there is some rollback built into the current market otherwise it would be down "30%" which was certainly hyperbole, but down significantly more was the point.

But we shall see how the market reacts if and when the negotiated roll backs are announced.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,863
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gmay8 said:
I couldn't help myself. I bought SPY down 4%. VB down 6%, and I put in an order for VTSAX which will execute at day end.

I can't see minus 5% days and not buy at least something
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I'll likely buy a little in extended, but I'm pretty open tomorrow morning to dive into our accounts.
 
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rutgersguy1_rivals

Heisman
Dec 17, 2008
45,214
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RU-05 said:
Brown thought there is some rollback built into the current market otherwise it would be down "30%" which was certainly hyperbole, but down significantly more was the point.

But we shall see how the market reacts if and when the negotiated roll backs are announced.
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He also said he moved to 60% T-bills 40 % large cap from 100% large cap.
 
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vkj91

Heisman
Feb 7, 2007
188,122
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After reading this thread and looking at the market, I expected to have gotten crushed today. I mean we had people saying nobody will ever retire again!!!!
Made enough to pay out of state Tuition and room and board at Rutgers for a year. Maybe all you do it yourself guys should seek professional advice?
I’m sure we will all have down days ahead but people need to relax
 
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drewbagel423

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Oct 30, 2006
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T2Kplus20 said:
If this is the high-water mark for tariffs, the market is currently at max fear. Any marginal improvement will cause a nice rally. There are only 6 countries/markets (including the EU) that really matter. And most of them are already in negotiations. Let's see what happens.
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Max fear is if inflation stays high, companies start forecasting lower earnings, unemployment increases, GDP slows or shrinks, etc. Still lots of potentially negative catalysts to navigate. Some good ones may also pop up, but don't be a Tom Lee and think we can't go lower, especially out a couple months.
 
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Caliknight

Caliknight

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Sep 21, 2001
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vkj91 said:
After reading this thread and looking at the market, I expected to have gotten crushed today. I mean we had people saying nobody will ever retire again!!!!
Made enough to pay out of state Tuition and room and board at Rutgers for a year. Maybe all you do it yourself guys should seek professional advice?
I’m sure we will all have down days ahead but people need to relax
Click to expand...

TDS doesn't work that way you know that.
 
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RUAldo

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Considering Navarro said on CNBC that the tariffs are not a negotiation will be interesting to see how tomorrow goes.
 
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rurahrah000

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jtung230 said:
Did Trump tell that to the union guy?
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Exactly. If we could make the same stuff here with automation, it would have already happened without tariffs. That sort of change just requires funding for the infrastructure. The point of moving manufacturing here is to help the areas that have been decimated by manufacturing moving out of America.
 
Caliknight

Caliknight

Hall of Famer
Sep 21, 2001
195,757
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rurahrah000 said:
Exactly. If we could make the same stuff here with automation, it would have already happened without tariffs. That sort of change just requires funding for the infrastructure. The point of moving manufacturing here is to help the areas that have been decimated by manufacturing moving out of America.
Click to expand...
The union knows what we all know. Automation is coming and it's coming fast.
 
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