OT: Stock and Investment Thread

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,779
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I'm green at 10:06 am. Edit: Jinxed it. down .5% at 10:40.

LYB
MDB
DOW(bought it yesterday)
CRWD
S (some reason I still own this dog)
SNOW

at the top of my portfolio.
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,779
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ABBV like VRTX looks like it wants to break out.

MRNA holding up nicely after yesterdays big run up. Only down 1.5% today.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,779
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Looking at FLG, Long Island based bank. Mnuchin is in it in some capacity.

Was NYCB before rebranding. Struggled through Covid, and is still trying to get profitable again, which it finally did this past qtr, and expecations are for it to be fully profitable this year. 10x 2027 expected eps would put it at $18. Currently .7 price to book.

It was rejected from $13 a bunch of times over the last 2 years before finally breaking out.

Sitting just below it now and I'm thinking this level will now provide support.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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WTI at $79. Will it climb over $80?

The rise in oil is putting pressure on the idea that more rate cuts are near.

Rate sensitve stocks taking a hit. See FLG which I mention above.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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Now that I think about it.

LYB and DOW are supposedly tied to oil prices for some reason. Oil over nat gas as a ratio I think.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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I AI'd CORZ.

"Total revenue fell 16% year-over-year as the company intentionally pivots away from lower-margin Bitcoin mining toward high-performance computing (HPC) and AI hosting."

It's one of those. Similar to HUT which we've talked about.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,594
19,628
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Started buying TOST today....as long as it stays above $27'ish (strong VWAP support at this level). Tried to jump back into NOW, but my limit orders never got filled. Maybe tomorrow.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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Supposedly no oil ships went through on Wednesday.
Bunch of wusses! :)

Interesting that energy/oil was rather meh today. Up a little, but not much. I didn't sell any of my energy positions, but definitely thinking about it. I do believe this is a multi-year macro trend with XLE and its holdings moving higher, but maybe it dumps when oil eventually does so. Then buy back in. Or maybe I'm trying to be too cute. All of my positions are shares or Jan 2027 leaps (so plenty of time).
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,779
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Bunch of wusses! :)

Interesting that energy/oil was rather meh today. Up a little, but not much. I didn't sell any of my energy positions, but definitely thinking about it. I do believe this is a multi-year macro trend with XLE and its holdings moving higher, but maybe it dumps when oil eventually does so. Then buy back in. Or maybe I'm trying to be too cute. All of my positions are shares or Jan 2027 leaps (so plenty of time).
Probably a sign the market doesn't see this as a long term thing.

If the war becomes a little messier then those price may continue to rise.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,594
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Probably a sign the market doesn't see this as a long term thing.

If the war becomes a little messier then those price may continue to rise.
Yeah, very likely. I did read/see that Iranian missile and drone launches are done 80-90% already. So that's a good sign.
 

Rutgers Chris

All-American
Nov 29, 2005
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We are allowing India to buy oil from Russia. Don’t make me look up how to post the nothing to see here meme.
Nothing To See Here GIF by Giphy QA
 
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Caliknight

Hall of Famer
Sep 21, 2001
196,197
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Ive been seeing the same histrionics from the same people since Feb of last year. They weren't right then and they won't be now.
 

drewbagel423

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2006
5,819
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They facilitate the transport of oil. Don't be on the wrong side when the news drops.
What news? The WH has said they want unconditional surrender and the ability to name the next leader. Iran isn't going to roll over that easily. The only way to achieve that is use of ground forces.

Remember before anyone rushes to buy the dip: the market needs to rise by 11% to break even after a 10% drop.

Good week... PLTR up quite a bit and headed higher. My oil hedge is working out well. It may go higher than $100.
That's probably a good bet at this point, given that all energy production in the region is at risk of shutting down.

 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,594
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What news? The WH has said they want unconditional surrender and the ability to name the next leader. Iran isn't going to roll over that easily. The only way to achieve that is use of ground forces.

Remember before anyone rushes to buy the dip: the market needs to rise by 11% to break even after a 10% drop.
LOL! When the conflict ends, oil will be down to $65 and S&P back to $6,900 within a few trading days. Did you learn anything from last year? Also, Trump says a lot of things.

The market is down like 4% from ATHs.
 

drewbagel423

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You think production/supply is just going to immediately snap back to what it was? Something like four ships have crossed the strait this week. It could take months to fill the growing deficit. And that's assuming this ends soon. The longer it goes on, the worse it's going to get.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,594
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You think production/supply is just going to immediately snap back to what it was? Something like four ships have crossed the strait this week. It could take months to fill the growing deficit. And that's assuming this ends soon. The longer it goes on, the worse it's going to get.
Do you think production/supply is an issue right now? There are months and months already in process and 80-85% of oil continues to flow. Yes, if is doesn't end soon we will have a small deficit of oil which likely can be compensated for by other sources. The only big deal here is fear. Nothing more.
 

drewbagel423

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Oct 30, 2006
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Do you think production/supply is an issue right now? There are months and months already in process and 80-85% of oil continues to flow. Yes, if is doesn't end soon we will have a small deficit of oil which likely can be compensated for by other sources. The only big deal here is fear. Nothing more.
Yes, I do. 20-25% of the world's daily oil & LNG travels through that strait. It's been closed for five days already. Not to mention the refineries and other production infrastructure that's been attacked by drones. And if it weren't going to be a problem, what incentive would the WH have for ending the war early, like you predict? Why not just keep bombing them into submission?
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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Yes, I do. 20-25% of the world's daily oil & LNG travels through that strait. It's been closed for five days already. Not to mention the refineries and other production infrastructure that's been attacked by drones. And if it weren't going to be a problem, what incentive would the WH have for ending the war early, like you predict? Why not just keep bombing them into submission?
Seems like submission is coming quickly (based on what Iran can and can't do anymore).
About 10 ships went through yesterday and I'm sure this will increase. It's all about fear, not reality.
 
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Bueller

Sophomore
Nov 28, 2025
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You think production/supply is just going to immediately snap back to what it was? Something like four ships have crossed the strait this week. It could take months to fill the growing deficit. And that's assuming this ends soon. The longer it goes on, the worse it's going to get.
The Ayatollahs in Iran are more than just political leaders - they are also akin to Catholic popes in Shia branch of Islam. Iran is 99% of Iranian population ( 80% is Twelver Shias - Mamdani's crew). A reason Iran bombing a lot of other states is because they have US bases and or govs aligned with US. Those govs assumed US protected them militarily and Iran wanted to show them they weren't. The populations are also considerably more in step with Iran than the US aligned leaders. Most "experts" keep saying Iran just "striking out haphazardly in panic." I hope Iran doesn't hit the desalination plants in the other ME states (wary about sleepers in West). Some Israeli officials now saying "Turkey is the new Iran" and that's the view of the "greater Israel" expansion project. "Peace" is not an ultimate goal in ME imo. US "picking" a leader not in line with Iran's religious constitution could be a bull in glassware shop thing.
 

RU in IM

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Good week... PLTR up quite a bit and headed higher. My oil hedge is working out well. It may go higher than $100.
Yep, it’s not just how you perform on the upside, it’s also how you’re positioned in a time of weakness. Energy and energy infrastructure represent over 12% of my equities, and have led my portfolio YTD. But this weak, not so much, although it did reduce the blow somewhat.
 
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rurahrah000

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Aug 21, 2010
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Yep, it’s not just how you perform on the upside, it’s also how you’re positioned in a time of weakness. Energy and energy represent over 12% of my equities, and have led my portfolio YTD. But this weak, not so much, although it did reduce the blow somewhat.
Moreover, portfolio performance depends on how well your biggest investments perform and how well someone manages loses. Too often folks hold on to their losers for too long.