Ford’s all-electric Transit van will make a splash and the electric version of the F-150 is going to pave the way for Ford. GM will run the same playbook. EV SUVs and light-duty trucks will put significant pressure on Tesla, especially if Ford goes all-in on EV Explorer. Ford and GM are American icons with loyal customer bases. The Tesla pumpers like to pretend as if “regular people” such as factory workers and teachers drive around in Tesla’s. It’s a joke - such a small slice of the population in the higher income brackets and wealthy states make up the lion’s share of Tesla’s sales. Tesla sold 499K total vehicles in 2020. Hmmm, with unemployment sky high due to COVID and lower income earners (without exposure to the stock market) struggling, I wonder who’s buying Tesla’s...
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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I'm a teacher and I drive a model 3. 2 teachers I work with will be buying Tesla's in the near future after going for a test drive with me.
You think Ford and GM are going to make pickups and SUVs cheaper than Tesla? Okay
Hmmm, now “BellyFullofWhiteDogCrap” is a teacher? I call BS, but I’ll let others draw their own conclusions. Regardless, you can continue to pump Tesla all you want. I think Tesla is a great company but it will get exposed under intense EV pressure from Ford, GM, and others. In 5 years it will be relegated to a niche high-end EV company for the elite and Californians. That’s not to say it won’t be successful. But, the “Tesla will rule the world” nonsense is how Tesla’s stock sky-rocketed to almost $900 p/sh with a PE of 1,400. VW will rule the EV market in the EU. China will have about a half dozen EV companies that will crush Tesla. And, on that point, anyone that believes the Chinese will let Silicon Valley’s Tesla own the EV market in China is really full of white dog crap.
What the S-1 doesn't tell you is the treatment for state tax purposes. Is it more akin to a PTP, where you might have filing requirements in multiple states, or common stock where it only involves your state of residence? For IRAs and Roth's, do you have UBTI considerations. I briefly had a PTP in my rollover IRA where that came up, but fortunately it was a smalI enough amount so it wasn't an issue. If your investment is $1000. of mad money who cares, but if you're investing real money that should be taken into account.
English please?
Any tax issues different than a normal investment? (i.e., short or long term cap gains). I technically believe that you get to deduct the fees since it is a trust.
310 mi.
I charge overnight at home.
Superchargers are everywhere for long distance trips. Put in your destination, and the car software tells you where to stop and for how long. Typically 20 min at a supercharger.
Edit..newer models have more range and winter driving does impact range. Approx 10-20%
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“BellyFullofWhiteDogCrap”? I’m not sure I’d choose a quote from Brennan in Stepbrothers to represent me, but I’m sure you’ll tell me he drives a Tesla too, just like the other 19 teachers at your imaginary school. Keep pumping Tesla. Just make sure you jump off the bandwagon before the stock craters.
Really? Some guy is going to come over to a Rutgers football forum to pump up TSLA stock. Most of the conversations around here revolve around TSLA, penny/OTC stocks and cryptocurrency. I don’t see many awesome trade theses presented here . Pumping a stock here would be a waste of time.
Depends on your state of charge.
Let's say you're at 10% SOC. You'll get to 80% in 15-20 min. Once the car reaches abt 90%, the charging rate slows down to protect the battery. Again, the car's software tells you exactly where to stop and what % to charge to.
People get hung up on "range anxiety" and charging speed. I've had to use the supercharger once in over a year of ownership, and I never think about range. I charge at home. Easy.
I imagine if you're routinely doing 300+ miles of non-roundtrip driving it would be inconvenient, but who does that apply to?
And it's a beautiful thing to never have to stop for gas.
I’m curious. Why do you deem Tesla, or for that matter any company, to be a great company? Is the phrase synonymous with great business?
Edit to add Ive no reason to doubt that BFWDC is a teacher. He’s posted for a long time in these boards and is very knowledgeable about scientific topics, judging the value of a business? Well, that’s another discussion.
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I didn’t mean he was literally pumping the stock - just that he pumps the Tesla brand and tries to justify the stock’s outrageous valuation.
Define "great".
Is it - outstanding balance sheet and a long track record of making huge profit
or
Is it - leading the way with a transformational idea that will change society
or
Both
I value Tesla’s innovation, technology, and quick rise in the once nascent EV market. Musk is also brilliant (or insane or both). But, from an investment standpoint Tesla is a joke on virtually every metric.
I think what MDK is pointing out is that there may be tax consequences and other considerations and complexities. If you look at the registration statement beginning on page 97 you’ll find some of these considerations related to US federal income taxes. The newness of Bitcoin may well carry with it an evolving and uncertain treatment for taxes. The registration is from 2017 and some of these issues/questions may or may not have been resolved—I don’t follow Bitcoin closely. Also,I don’t believe that fees will be deductible but that is not tax advise and you should consult your tax advisor.English please?
Any tax issues different than a normal investment? (i.e., short or long term cap gains). I technically believe that you get to deduct the fees since it is a trust.
+1
Definitely agree on the uncertainty. Cryptos are uncharted waters.
Sorry to keep posting CW videos, but this is really good. About the recently job #'s and economic news from the past week. I'm sure some (like @Frida's Boss ) know this all already, but as a non-financial professional, it was a valuable listen for me.
Well, that was my question. I have my own answer, but the term “great company” is used frequently enough that I was curious what others thought.
I’m not trying to be a pest, but what do you mean by “value”? Do you mean you admire it, or that you can place a dollar amount against TSLA’s innovation and technology? And let’s ignore investment for a moment, as that inevitably involves a question of price.
English please?
Any tax issues different than a normal investment? (i.e., short or long term cap gains). I technically believe that you get to deduct the fees since it is a trust.
Glossary:
PTP - Publicly Traded Partnership - You are taxed like a partnership, which means the income/loss are allocated for state tax purposes where the partnership conducts business. That means you would get a K-1 showing income for all those states. California was famous for dunning people and requiring returns for people who had never set foot in the state. A lot of oil and gas pipeline companies were PTPs. It's onerous enough that many PTPs have established corporate entities that hold the PTP interests and deal with the state tax issues. You get dividends like a regular corporation a a slightly lower rate to reflect their handling of the non-resident states.
UBIT - Unrelated Business Income Tax - Applies only to tax exempt entities like charities and IRAs. Best example is a museum that runs a restaurant that turns a profit. That, despite it's exempt status, is taxable. So if the income from the trust is considered an unrelated business you could have to file a tax return for the IRA if the income exceeds $1000.
Legit point - I admire Tesla as a disruptor. And, at the right price, I would be a buyer of Tesla’s stock based on future growth potential. But, nowhere near these levels. Last time I checked, Tesla delivered 499K cars in 2020 and was only profitable in the last quarter because of regulatory credits, but its market cap was larger than the next 9 auto manufacturers combined! It wasn’t long ago when Tesla’s short interest was through the roof. That’s partly to blame for the stock’s meteoric rise. Basically, took the GameStop route only it took 10 months to go up 500%+ instead of 10 days.
I’d throw the question back at you, and I’d suggest that the terms great company and great business are not necessarily synonymous.
Thanks for the compliment. I'd like to take a stab at your question as a novice of the business world.
For any business it starts at the top. I'm sure you know all about Elon Musk. Lots of adjectives to choose from. Self made, workaholic, inspirational, humble, a genius of engineering and physics, and I truly believe he cares about people and the future of our planet and species. Below I'll link a recent interview with Sandy Munro, an expert in the auto world. Listen to the level of detail Elon knows about his products. That matters. He's on the front lines with his workers whether it's sleeping on the factory floor or a conference room couch. If you're an average Joe on working on the line, that matters.
Product. It's got to be something people LOVE. I could go into all the reasons why, but I think you already know Tesla owners are fanatics. 1 minute behind the wheel, and I was hooked. I will never buy another ICE vehicle and will probably be a Tesla customer for the rest of my life. I'm not alone. Brand loyalty matters.
Times change and businesses have to be able to adapt. Tesla is heavily vertically integrated. They build the machines that build the machines. Batteries, unique alloys, power trains, motors, heat pumps, software, AI, and even seats and airbags. Very little of a Tesla comes from an outsourced supplier. Because of this they can change and adapt faster, easier, and with greater efficiency than any other automaker. How are other OEMs going to catch Tesla when they're dealing with dozens of different suppliers? They're the leader in the EV market, and that lead is growing for this reason.
Anyway, just my 2 cents worth. I'll also throw in the express version of the Battery Day presentation.
I fully agree with you noting the value of goodwill, especially brand loyalty, when talking about Tesla. I don't think TSLA is synonymous with EV, but they are the clear cut leader and that does carry weight. Now the brand loyalty story could turn on them when GM breaks out the HUMMER, or the Corvette, or whatever big name car they have. You noted the Bolt didn't work, but they have taken a new tack. Certainly though, TSLA has been able to build it's own legion of followers.
Now as per being vertically integrated, I'm not sure that helps versatility. If you outsource, you can draw from the worlds ingenuity. If you''re insular, then it is solely up to you. Now quality control? Or compatibility? Or cost efficiencies? That, I would think, would be significant benefits of vertical integration. I am shooting from the hip on this one though.[/QUOTE]
Went heavy R2K in August, so I caught most of the wave. Very happy!
YTD:
S&P 500 = 3.67%
R1K = 4.15%
R2K = +13.14%
Mid-Caps (VO) = +5.34%
I assume this trend will continue are society opens up via vaccinations.
And why do you think the trend continues?
I think the trend is tied to the influx of retail traders. Given I think the retail trader is not going away, nor will it change it's ways anytime soon, I also think the Russel/small cap outperformance trend continues.
Thus I remain fairly heavy in the small caps.
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We can debate Tesla as an investment all day, but as a Tesla advocate how do you explain its piss-poor JD Power rating? And, I’m not suggesting JD Power is the end all be all because my fav BMW doesn’t rate high either.
I believe society reopening will continue to help mid/small caps, but your point about retail traders is also reasonable. BTW, it is interesting that large cap growth stocks started popping again, after 3-4 months of mediocre returns.
The ARK crew is forecasting TSLA to sell 840,000 cars this year and 4 million by 2024. That's a lot of EVs!
Tsla is overvalued no doubt about it in my mind. The valuation may prove out in 30 years but that's not my time horizon. On the other end I like what GM is doing. They're investing, they are starting to disrupt and they are all in. Throw in that they're marketing that way and I like what they have. Cybertruck might be "cool" if you like impractical but the Hummer EV will be a slam dunk on both practical and cool ends. If tsla is worth 700b (it's not) gm should be worth 200, if tsla is more realistically worth 350, gm is still worth double current levels.
Just my thoughts on the issue, but buyers of TSLA, like buyers of BMW, have high expectations, thus those buyers will be more likely to note criticisms.
Who is atop those rankings?
Would you rather profits now with less growth, or more growth now and larger profits in the future?
Jd power is a pay for rating scheme. Take their rankings and piss on them.
What you should be questioning is why Musk would tell you not to buy tesla's during production ramps... Why their screen ( yeah the thing that gives you the ability control pretty much anything in the car) only has a 7 year life expectancy. Imagine if you speedometer only had a 7 year useful life. And why he himself said they were overvalued ( like $400 ago). It's mania, people buying a stock because they have no other sense of what to invest in.... I like the company... I like what they are doing... But 700b valuation is crack binge level.
A more bearish, but still overall positive view of TSLA (let me know if there is a paywall):