CW = rockstar!
This is little more harsh than I think is warranted, but so was Elaine Garzarelli.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
- Start date
This is little more harsh than I think is warranted, but so was Elaine Garzarelli.
Who?
The great thing about CW and ARK is that they are so transparent. Every move, every investment, every bit of research is available. What you see is what you get. As an ARK investor, we get 3-4 emails a week (about timely topics and market events), 2 webinars a month (I even had a question answered, but obviously it was a question that many participants likely asked as well), and plenty of public appearances to boot. I wish other companies were this open and transparent!
She earned it. Not taking that away from her. But to get to the next level, she has to work on her BS skills.CW = rockstar!
Maybe she should hold back a little. Not sure it's a good look when your research is that if everyone buys it, it'll go up. It'll be interesting to see how she adapts when sector rotation happens out of tech.
Just hoping for steady better than market returns from ARK for the next 10-15 years.
Her POV is that even though all sectors have to deal with downturns, the truly innovative companies will continue to lead the way with growth and returns. Some years it may be +150% (2020) and some years it may be 3% (2018, but this was still 10% higher than the market).
Before the internet and social media. Warned continuously about the risk of an October 19, 1987 event for the better part of a year before it happened and was spot on so she outperformed. After that the media hung on her every utterance. Eventually ran her own shop and the returns were consistently below average for managed funds. Steve Eisman (see "The Big Short") is one from the age of the internet. Spectacular returns for a while followed a decade of mediocrity.
Tons of stories like this and tons of other stories of stars continuing to be stars.
Stars? Yes. Idolatry? No. This getting beyond Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett at this point. And they are the two that make you say there are always exception. And Buffett's annual returns 70-80% of the time would be called mediocre by some, though not me.
BTC hits 53K - 
Interesting interview with the Binance founder and CEO:
Interesting interview with the Binance founder and CEO:
For the record, no one is in the category of Buffett. He is truly unique in his investment performance. Lynch has an amazing record. Better than 99% of investors over any 13 year period. But he’s just not in the conversation, simply because no one is.
So, CW pumps Tesla. Next day she pumps BTC because it has the same effect now that Tesla bought BTC. She can’t let her largest holding drop and needs to stop the slide before February closes. Even worse, apparently Musk’s #bitcoin tweet came the day of or day after BTC dropped below the price at which Tesla bought it. Greed and self-preservation on full display.
She is in demand, and rightfully so. I don’t fault her for telling interviewers what she likes and why, but if I held some of her funds, I’d prefer she keep her own counsel a bit. A psychological bias often plagues investors who routinely expound their holdings. This bias can make them less apt to spot and act upon facts counter to their thesis, and that isn’t how you want a manager to behave. I’m not saying she has done so, or even that she would do so, but she is human.
On one of these too frequently held calls, I’d encourage someone to ask about a mistake she’s made, how she caught it and what she did about it. And then follow up with whether the controls in place today would also catch said mistake given then very public persona she know enjoys.
On one of these too frequently held calls, I’d encourage someone to ask about a mistake she’s made, how she caught it and what she did about it. And then follow up with whether the controls in place today would also catch said mistake given then very public persona she know enjoys.
The whole “talk your book” thing is so ridiculous. Why does CW or any fund manager need to discuss certain stocks they own on CNBC - of course to goose the stock! Same goes for “Roaring Kitty”. If he thinks his “love for GameStop as an investment” is going to save him from drowning in litigation he’s crazy. He is a financial professional (at least at some level) that worked for MassMutual and made it his mission to mobilize mass support for GameStop through YouTube, Reddit, Twitter, etc. for the sole purpose of enriching himself. Otherwise, he could have given his family and buddies the tip and call it a day.
Just to balance out the crypo hysteria here. And yes I know his history but always good to get both sides of the argument.
When asked why bitcoin's price continues to surge, Roubini responded by saying "its surging because there is a massive amount of manipulation, pump and dump schemes, spoofing, wash trading, and front running."
"I think it's a bubble," the economist added.
Roubini also noted transaction costs and limits on the speed of transactions per minute could be an issue for the scalability of bitcoin.
"The transaction costs are huge, but the technology, proof of work, doesn't allow more than five transactions per second, the visa network allows you 24,000 transactions per second," Roubini said.
When asked why bitcoin's price continues to surge, Roubini responded by saying "its surging because there is a massive amount of manipulation, pump and dump schemes, spoofing, wash trading, and front running."
"I think it's a bubble," the economist added.
Roubini also noted transaction costs and limits on the speed of transactions per minute could be an issue for the scalability of bitcoin.
"The transaction costs are huge, but the technology, proof of work, doesn't allow more than five transactions per second, the visa network allows you 24,000 transactions per second," Roubini said.
In my experience with VXX it only works when the market takes a nose-dive. It’s driven by volatility to the downside.
BTC isn't about speed of transactions or becoming a currency, it's about stored value. The Visa example is apples and oranges and shows Roubini isn't educated on the subject.
Now ETH, that's about speed.
Yes, it’s a hedge. I like to tell people that I run a long/short investment strategy for my personal portfolio. It sounds really cool and some are impressed by it. The reality is that I’m 98% long and 2% short.
I didn’t see the interview this morning but Ken Griffin apparently said he doesn’t waste his time on cryptocurrency.
Well, she’s not just an investor. She also owns and runs an investment management business. Those two functions are not the same thing, and the incentives are not completely aligned, either. The appearances are good marketing opportunities for her to attract more assets.
Performance is the best way to attract assets. And, on that basis, no need to push the single largest position in her ARKK fund.
The explosion of the PancakeSwap decentralized exchange is triggering it. Both of their pops are horsehit IMO and could see a correction, but who knows.
You can get perpetually lost trying to keep up with these coins. I focus on my core: BTC, ETH, DCR, ELA, AAVE.
I have multiple crypto people I talk to and who are smarter than me, and know more. I lean on their wisdom on some altcoins. These are people who lost tens of thousands on alts and are bitter af about it. The only additional coins theyve weve discussed are Chainlink, Stellar, FileCoin & Amp.
He made some reasonable comments:
"I don't see the economic underpinning of cryptocurrencies. I understand how to value a stock - the net present value of earnings. I understand how to think about currency - exchange rates around the world. I don't know how to think what is effectively a digital token."
No doubt performance is the most important attribute, but don’t for a second think asset managers aren’t going to market themselves to increase AUM. I don’t recall where she started, but it was a large asset manager. Not saying she’s doing anything devious at all, either, but that’s the game.
+1
Had this fund in a 401k for the past 15 years. Now it's in a rollover IRA.
I wish this fun were available in my 401K. I have JMGMX, which has been above average for mid cap growth funds. Falls short of PRHNX though.
This. 100%. Suggest folks read their research report .
+1
My current 401k is extremely generous (I put in 6% and my company puts in 13.25%). I can't complain. However, since I'm at such a large company, they decided to dumb down the choices for the masses. I especially have just indexes.
My first 2 401ks got me into PRNSX and FDGRX, both awesome and both closed to new investors. I have both now rocking it in my combined rollover IRA.
+1
I am only in BTC and ETH. If/when Grayscale launches an ADA or DOT fund, I may dabble.
Wow - another terrific fund. Again, I'm envious. I have a similar fund FBGKX - but yours outperforms. Nonetheless, I've been very happy with my 401K investments.
FBGKX is a solid fund! Great option for a 401k. Here is my allocation for our new rollover IRA (which accounts for about 55% of our retirement assets):
PRGTX - 20% (T Rowe Global Tech)
PRNHX - 18% (T Rowe New Horizons)
ARKK - 15% (ARK Innovation ETF)
FDGRX - 15% (Fidelity Growth Company)
PRHSX - 10% (T Rowe Health Sciences)
FSMAX - 10% (Fidelity Extended Markets/S&P Completion Index)
RPGEX - 6% (T Rowe Global Growth Fund)
SOXX/XSD - 6% (Semiconductor ETFs)
Still toying around with the %'s, but this is pretty close to the final product (until market changes require reallocations).
Last edited:
