OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
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All optics and part of Roaring Kitty’s litigation defense. The fact remains that the ONLY reason he went all over social media, YouTube, etc. pumping GME was to increase the value of his holding. With that said, it was nice to see Wall Street take some lumps.
Last I saw, the saving rate was still well above pre-COVID norms. And DC is about to dump a ton of more cash on the public.
Just one source discussing cash on the sidelines.
Thanks for linking, great article. Nice quote:
"Economists at Goldman Sachs forecast that the economy will grow 6.8 percent this year"
Damn, hold on to your hats!
FYI, got some more ETH and BTC on this morning's super dip. Definitely in good shape for the long haul now.
I bought MARA on the dip at 36, literally sold it 14 minutes later at 40 and change.FYI, got some more ETH and BTC on this morning's super dip. Definitely in good shape for the long haul now.
That’s already priced in the market. I could be wrong but thought the there are a lot of inflows to stocks/crypto already.
Sure. LOL. Many said vaccines were priced into the market, but the market still went kaboom when both got approved and distribution began. Sorry, not buying it.
"Already priced in" is the last gasp attempt for bears to poop on good news.
I guess how do you explain the market if no one priced in the v-shape recovery. All the indices are all above pre-pandemic levels. If you chart the indices, it sure looks like a V to me. LOL
and Tesla is off 16% from its high from a month ago. Meanwhile Alcoa, F, EOM, CAT, COP, DOW, DE and others are on roll and hitting 52 week highs. Will this rotation continue? who knows, but it’s sizable over the last month or so.
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Except it’s correct. The surprises on the vaccines had to do with timing and efficacy, The economic news you’re talking about is already considered in stock prices.
I think you’re spot on. The violent uptick last year also was a reaction to the governments willingness to buy risk assets such as HY. If they were willing to do that, how far a leap would it be for them to buy index funds? And you didn’t want to be out of the market if that was rolled out.
Great buying opportunities. Growth/tech are always more volatile than other sectors, but they are only down about 3% from the recent high (Nasdaq).
Only a great buying opportunity if you are sitting on cash and don't have your money tied up in investments already. If they were in investments outside of Commodities or Value stocks today, you took a beating.
The question will be: is it time to sell and build your cash reserve for a bigger correction that is looming or just let it ride?
Not yet a buying opportunity. TSLA is however getting closer. if TSLA goes below $700, then should start buying.
Many of the techs are down about 10-13%. I sold all my techs when they hit their 52 week highs. I’m starting to nibble at them now. I also brought BDX14% down, UNH 10.4% down, PFE 18% down AMGN 13% down and VZ 11% down, all down more than 10%. Waiting for HD to go down to 10%.
ADBE down 13%, FB down 15%, AMZN 10% down, PYPL 9.8% and Nflx 9%. I think buying them down 15-20% will be safe. The techs might be down 15-20% but the overall market will only be down 5-10%.
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Two Bitcoin threads on the football msg board was the clear bubble indicator
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch
You lose out on so much gain by waiting that you will never make it up.
I think we lose out if we try to time the market. We’d have to know when to get out and then get back in. I am optimistic over the long haul but have no idea what will happen in the short term. That’s why I basically have an asset allocation that I more or less stay with and rebalance occasionally as per my AA. I was about 98% equities until i got to semi retirement five years ago and then full retirement last year. So over the past six years I’ve been 75%-80% equities and will stay with that going forward. Over the years I road out ‘87, dot.com crash, 2008-9, 2018, and 2020. That’s worked well for me.
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Technically, you’ll have more than 16 years. You should continue to hold stocks after retirement. I’m hoping to retire in 2-3 years but will need stocks to keep me retire.16 year time horizon, let it ride and buy, buy, buy!
Obviously a very good point. We will have stocks well into retirement. Not sure of the allocation yet, but you are definitely right.
+1
Made tons of extra money by staying the course in 2008/2009 and for the COVID crash last year. Not changing now. We have plenty of cash in reserves (which we won't use for investments), but this frees up our upcoming annual bonuses. We don't need to bank any of this. I will likely pull some of this ahead and put it into our E-Trade brokerage account.
Totally agree. We are staying about 75%-80% equities with an eye toward leaving money to the kids, charities, and RU.
I use to be in the market 100% before my retirement but I retired 12 years ago. I also handled the 87, dot.com, 2008, 2018, and 2020 period but was out of the market in the 2008 and 2020 crash. I move in heavy after the 2008 since I was mostly in cash and in 2020 but didn’t expect it to recover so quickly.
Generally I agree you shouldn’t try to time the market but I don’t like to accept $500k loses at any time. 50-100k lost is maybe acceptable. My brother equity was down a million in March which would be difficult for me to accept but he recovered it since he left it in the market. I probably lost some capital gains but I’m more comfortable when I’m in cash and make the trade when I see an opportunity especially when the market appears to be overvalued.
100% agree with staying the course with your plan. We have many years expenses in cash or short duration FI so we can ride out an extended bear if need be. We could also tax loss harvest if it made sense.
Nothing wrong with that. I took a seven figure paper loss last March but stayed the course and recovered that and then some. We all have to decide what makes sense for us individually depending on our circumstances.
$500k loses are meaningless if you don't need the money at that time. Hell, I think we were down close to a million at the bottom of COVID, but the crash was artificial BS. Just kept buying. Turned out very nicely, even with pretty conservative investments at the time. Wish I was more aggressive.
Honestly, we have way too much cash, but that's makes us (especially the wife) comfortable. We view this cash and our retirement investments as totally separate. However, since we don't need any more cash, all excess salary and bonuses are invested. If the downward trend continues, I will definitely pull some cash forward in lieu of my upcoming bonuses.
Can't miss out on these opportunities.
If you’re 15 years out from retirement I would probably not have much cash so I agree with you. I also agree with your approach that if you want 1%-5% in some of these more speculative stocks and crypto, fine. I personally would not go beyond that but that’s just my view.
I'm embarrassed to say that we more than 5 years of living expenses in cash (and probably more if we tightened the budget). And that is assuming we both lose our jobs. Our girls private school and college money are completely separate.
My crypto portfolio makes up 0.3 to 0.4% of our retirement investments. I jumped into ARKK a few months ago and that is now roughly 7-8% of our retirement assets (even with today's big drop it is about 20% up). Those are the most risky items. The rest is a mix between managed funds/etfs and indexes. I've been very successful with funds over the years.
Besides my crypto account, I have no individual stocks.
Nothing wrong with 5 years living expense in cash, in my view. It lets you ride out a longer bear market or potential problems such as unemployment.
I have some individual stocks that have large unrealized gains I’ll leave to the kids for a stepped up basis, or to charities.
That's the only bad thing about brokerage accounts, large unrealized gains (well, only bad from a certain POV). I would love to get out of a few funds and reallocate but the tax consequences would be significant (even as long-term cap gains). We max out all possible retirement accounts, but there is a lot left over.