OT: Stock and Investment Thread

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,600
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Didn't get a chance today, but will buy more call contracts tomorrow. BTW, are you/anyone able to buy or sell options contracts after hours? Fidelity says that you can in a brokerage account, but I have never been successful getting an order filled.
Not able to on E-Trade.

Side note: E-Trade recently changed up their charts, and earnings-revenue graph pages and they are super glitchy. I need to look into this.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,600
9,128
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Also:



Great stuff as usual, but also talk on Berkshire and their cash holdings, which was a discussion here recently.

Something along the lines of Berkshire is at 24% equities which is down from 30ish% but in line with 10 year average

&

Berkshire needs a ton of cash given they need cash to cover insurance claims which is a huge business for them, and there is tons of natural disasters to watch out for. Buffet said something along the lines of "my insurance companies are run by pessimists".

Also said something in his annual letter which echoed what I mentioned the other day, that being, Buffet has made mistakes, which is not surprising in this business. Even I do sometimes.
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,600
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One more:

GM up 3+% on buy back and div increase.

Needs to get back above $50, but that stock is super super cheap and rolling in cash.

I thought it odd they just closed up shop on their cruise business. I get streamlining, but that seems like a high growth business with market panache. Could they not have sold it? Obvious answer is, No, but I'm still curious.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,876
18,866
113
Also:



Great stuff as usual, but also talk on Berkshire and their cash holdings, which was a discussion here recently.

Something along the lines of Berkshire is at 24% equities which is down from 30ish% but in line with 10 year average

&

Berkshire needs a ton of cash given they need cash to cover insurance claims which is a huge business for them, and there is tons of natural disasters to watch out for. Buffet said something along the lines of "my insurance companies are run by pessimists".

Also said something in his annual letter which echoed what I mentioned the other day, that being, Buffet has made mistakes, which is not surprising in this business. Even I do sometimes.

Haven't watch this one yet. I'll check out the BRK segment tonight.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,600
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I was green, then I went red, now I'm green again.

10% of additional tariff's on China announced.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,876
18,866
113
I was green, then I went red, now I'm green again.

10% of additional tariff's on China announced.
The market will grow up eventually and stop reacting like a dog seeing a squirrel. These tariff "announcement" are just meaningless background noise (until the next one happens).
 
Dec 17, 2008
45,214
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0
Also said something in his annual letter which echoed what I mentioned the other day, that being, Buffet has made mistakes, which is not surprising in this business. Even I do sometimes.
Everyone makes mistakes, that's nothing surprising. Frankly, you can be wrong more than right and still do well if those right ones are big winners.

I can't say I subscribe or operate like this always but many would say if you're quick to recognize the losers and cut the losses while letting the winners run, you'll still do very well despite potentially being wrong more than right.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,600
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Everyone makes mistakes, that's nothing surprising. Frankly, you can be wrong more than right and still do well if those right ones are big winners.

I can't say I subscribe or operate like this always but many would say if you're quick to recognize the losers and cut the losses while letting the winners run, you'll still do very well despite potentially being wrong more than right.
Also mentioned on WAYT, and it may have been in the Buffet letter, but if you let the winners run, the losers will just fade away. Ie the winners become larger positions in the portfolio while the losers become smaller, without having to do anything else, such as selling your losers.

Can only lose 100% on a position, but you can be up 1000% or more.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,876
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Also mentioned on WAYT, and it may have been in the Buffet letter, but if you let the winners run, the losers will just fade away. Ie the winners become larger positions in the portfolio while the losers become smaller, without having to do anything else, such as selling your losers.

Can only lose 100% on a position, but you can be up 1000% or more.
Some of Buffett's best advice. If you keep trimming the flowers, your garden will have nothing but weeds.
 
Dec 17, 2008
45,214
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Also mentioned on WAYT, and it may have been in the Buffet letter, but if you let the winners run, the losers will just fade away. Ie the winners become larger positions in the portfolio while the losers become smaller, without having to do anything else, such as selling your losers.

Can only lose 100% on a position, but you can be up 1000% or more.
I tend to accumulate rather than cut the loss, mind you I operate in the "safety" of large/megacap names, also often ones that have already taken a hit. So there's a cushion there as well. It's burned me in the financial crash (don't touch financials now) but it generally works for me. Provided there's some quality there, the turn eventually comes to varying degrees... sometimes big like the last tech crash.

It's not that cutting losses quick and letting winners run is a wrong either. It's a psychology thing imo (I always say know your own psychology), so you have to be of a certain mindset to take the repeated (smaller) losses which I don't know that I have. I'm more of if I think there's something here, I'm going to accumulate and wait if necessary.
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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Think the NVDA 200 day is $126. Exactly where the stock now sits.

*It may have been some other support level. But I think it was the 200 day.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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A lot of the concern on NVDA is margins, which are currently at 70% will come in. Bryn Talkington thinks those margins could go up. First time I heard someone suggest that.
 
Dec 17, 2008
45,214
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Think the NVDA 200 day is $126. Exactly where the stock now sits.

*It may have been some other support level. But I think it was the 200 day.
It is hovering around the 200DMA and other longer term MA support but it's holding for now. It's dancing around that area. Should it break, I wouldn't rule out the low 90s to low 100s area as the next area of support.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,876
18,866
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A lot of the concern on NVDA is margins, which are currently at 70% will come in. Bryn Talkington thinks those margins could go up. First time I heard someone suggest that.
No issue with margins. Jensen spoke about this for months. Slightly lower margins during the Blackwell ramp up and then they will increase back to the mid 70s.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,876
18,866
113
Alert from FS Insights:

SPX getting close to bottoming as sentiment reaches extremes
- 2-week steep slide for US Equities looks close to bottoming.
- Technology remains in good shape despite this past week’s decline.
- AAII sentiment has reached one of the most bearish levels of all time.
 
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RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
4,508
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CAVA down another 9% today. CMG down a little as well.

NKE looks like it may have been rejected by the low 80s vicinity resistance I mentioned.
I sold CAVA around $120 and bought it back today. I don’t understand why a lot of these food stocks are getting crushed especially with little tariff exposure.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,876
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CAVA down another 9% today. CMG down a little as well.

NKE looks like it may have been rejected by the low 80s vicinity resistance I mentioned.
CMG still not under $50, but probably a very good buy at $52'ish. As for CAVA, can't figure out how much of its price action is due to good business results versus meme stock dynamics.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,876
18,866
113
I sold CAVA around $120 and bought it back today. I don’t understand why a lot of these food stocks are getting crushed especially with little tariff exposure.
I'm in SHAK and probably going to buy CMG soon. Any others? SG and CAVA seem so meme'y. :)
 
Dec 17, 2008
45,214
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I sold CAVA around $120 and bought it back today. I don’t understand why a lot of these food stocks are getting crushed especially with little tariff exposure.
I haven’t stepped in yet but keeping an eye on both of them.

MCD which has been languishing for awhile on the other hand has done better lately.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,876
18,866
113
Very nice PCE print this morning:

PCE Core = 2.6% YoY (down from 2.8%) - FEDs preferred inflation measure
PCE Headline = 2.5% YoY (down from 2.6%)
Both as expected.
 
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Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
18,970
12,164
82
TSLA is 43% down from the highs. Even the head fake of filing for limo licensing in CA didn’t move the needle.
 

Captain Hogleg

All-Conference
Jan 26, 2006
3,076
4,129
68
I haven’t stepped in yet but keeping an eye on both of them.

MCD which has been languishing for awhile on the other hand has done better lately.
Bought more CAVA at $95 and added to a decent size position. Definitely a roller coaster, but I love this play long term.
 
Dec 17, 2008
45,214
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0
Bought more CAVA at $95 and added to a decent size position. Definitely a roller coaster, but I love this play long term.
It's had what looks like a definitive break of its 200DMA but also oversold at least on a short term basis so possible bounce may happen. I'm still waiting on it for now.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,600
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Yet he sold Delta near the Covid lows.

Now we can justify that sale in that Delta was taking on tons of debt and he didn't want to own that debt with the uncertainty of Covid. and maybe he moved that money to something else that did quite well, but the stock is up somewhere around 150% since that point, if a decent chunk of that money was kept in cash, it was not a great trade. He was fearful and he sold.

But like now, for him, the risk may have not been worth the reward. He has hundreds of billions, it's more important to protect that money then to grow it.
Ha. On this weeks Compound and Friends Josh Brown blows this argument out of the water. Basically calls me a dickhead.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,876
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Ha. On this weeks Compound and Friends Josh Brown blows this argument out of the water. Basically calls me a dickhead.
On this week’s episode, I remember JB saying:
“That RU-05 guy on the Rutgers Rivals board is a dickhead”
Might be paraphrasing. :)

And Jim L = buy CSCO
 
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RU in IM

All-Conference
Nov 3, 2011
2,675
2,136
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Lag seven continues to underperform.

PM and T keep flying and both hit another 52 week high. VZ having another solid day. For now, the defensive stocks are in favor, but for how long? I might up my modest exposure in tech, but just on the margins