OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
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Yeah people don't realize this entire tariffs thing is about taking down China and telling Xi-tler not to F with the US and Taiwan, who were the first to respond and agree to increased bilateral agreements both in trade and defense. We literally can collapse China's economy in a matter of days just with a simple thing like a tariff war, because they are completely reliant on the US for consumerism of their cheap manufacturing and if they don't play ball then we crush them, and internally they are in such bad shape due to over-construction and devaluing the RMB while having a dwindling working age population and companies moving out of China due to US pressure since Trump got in last time. And if Xi wants to even consider military action they'd be taken out both militarily and economically in a matter of days... this is why Xi is being so stubborn because he's about to lose face to everyone in his country and has zero ways to deal with it.
I meant last week, not this past week.
This past week was down a ton early on Monday, but made a comeback. Up a ton early Tuesday only to give it back. Huge day Wed, really bad day Thurs, good day Friday. In sum a good week overall, but to the OP on the topic, crazy volatile.
Looks like there was a high set on Feb 20th, and a downward trend in place since. Pushing up near that line. Need to break through that.
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Hope you're right. And also hope it lasts more than a week and doesn't end up trapping longs.
We all knew this was coming. I'm so ready for this to be over. How is anyone supposed to have any confidence to invest in the market (or a company to invest in itself) with stuff like this popping up every day?
Callable in 2033 and 2029. bought both at par or slight discount. Don’t have extension or prepay risk.
DOn't know if you guy watch/listen to teh All-In podcast but this one posted Saturday on Youtube was heated on this general topic. It was a fun watch... warning.. it is long.. 2 hrs total and most is on-topic.. maybe play at 1.25X or faster? Chamath is the MVP of this debate.
The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Really enjoyed the first half hour so far. Intelligent people having a great discussion in a mature way without nasty comments and cutting each other off.
My initial thought is only time will show us which of them is correct.
I agree with your opinion on Chamath so far also.
Now an hour- taking a break.
My initial thought is only time will show us which of them is correct.
I agree with your opinion on Chamath so far also.
Now an hour- taking a break.
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It’s not quite that simple. China can throw our economy into a severe recession or even a depression. All they have to do is sell the US treasuries they own and our economy is screwed.
The best podcast there is for business and world events imo.
I've always thought that was the mutually assured destruction balance with China. If we closed our markets China's economy would absolutely crater. If China started to dump our treasuries our financial health/debt management would explode. Right?
Great Video for the argument of Free Trade shared by my former Econ professor who is now head of Economics at The Citadel.
Thankfully, they cannot afford to do that. Still, they're selling off some, for effect, to help in tariff negotiations.
Nope.
To me, sounds like everything will be repealed soon since investors are fleeing US treasuries for safer and more stable options. Bond market will win again.
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Sure they'll be repealed again and then repeal the repeal. Rinse and repeat.
My impression is that neither country can afford to do what they are doing.
I guess the other question is which country’s citizens are either willing to deal with the hardship or have no say in it anyway
Oh, that reminds me. Saw this a few days ago. This essentially reflects the markets as well!
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I bet the markets start looking past all the talk and only react when something is actually implemented. As of now, the vast majority of tariffs have never seen the light of day.
This is so spot onOh, that reminds me. Saw this a few days ago. This essentially reflects the markets as well!
Tariff "**** Show" continues.
Today, per Bloomberg: "President Donald Trump denies that there was a tariff “exception” for certain electronics announced Friday, saying in a post on Truth Social that these products are still subject to existing tariffs of 20% and that the administration is looking into tariffs on the whole supply chain for electronics."
Also today... "Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said President Donald Trump’s trade exemptions on electronic devices are only temporary."
Do these guys ever talk to each other? Is Bessent the intermediary? S&P Futures up .85%, right now. Tomorrow will be "interesting."
Today, per Bloomberg: "President Donald Trump denies that there was a tariff “exception” for certain electronics announced Friday, saying in a post on Truth Social that these products are still subject to existing tariffs of 20% and that the administration is looking into tariffs on the whole supply chain for electronics."
Also today... "Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said President Donald Trump’s trade exemptions on electronic devices are only temporary."
Do these guys ever talk to each other? Is Bessent the intermediary? S&P Futures up .85%, right now. Tomorrow will be "interesting."
There are no tariffs of 20%. Chips and electronics are fully exempt pending a review that will take "1 or 2 months". Yeah, sure. Plans will change 100 times by then. LOL!
Futures are up because the market is starting to ignore the daily rhetoric. Bessent and the bond market will figure everything out.
20% is back based on a post from POTUS on Truth Social. More info to be released tomorrow.
Trump's Truth Social post today:
"NOBODY is getting “off the hook” for the unfair Trade Balances, and Non Monetary Tariff Barriers, that other Countries have used against us, especially not China which, by far, treats us the worst! There was no Tariff “exception” announced on Friday. These products are subject to the existing 20% Fentanyl Tariffs, and they are just moving to a different Tariff “bucket.” The Fake News knows this, but refuses to report it. We are taking a look at Semiconductors and the WHOLE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN in the upcoming National Security Tariff Investigations."
Yeah, I'm going to trust the people actually collecting the tariffs over Trump. Chips are exempt from China's 2,000% tariffs or whatever they are now. Besides, most semis come from Taiwan so I guess it doesn't matter anyway.
Goldman still kicking butt:
Goldman Sachs tops estimates on boom in equities trading revenue
Goldman Sachs tops estimates on boom in equities trading revenue
Nvidia stock leaps after massive U.S. investment surprise
Nvidia unveiled plans for a massive investment in its U.S.-based manufacturing setup Monday as the ripple-effects of President Donald Trump's tariff gambit, as well as China's retaliation towards the tech sector, continue to reverberate.Nvidia (NVDA) said it plans to manufacture an American-made 'supercomputer' from a U.S. platform, and plans to produce as much as $500 billion in AI infrastructure over the next four years as part of a partnership with Foxconn and Taiwan Semiconductor.
The plants are expected to be built in Arizona and Texas and will be used to test Nvidia Blackwell chips in the former and the AI supercomputers in the latter.
Interesting fun fact re: WOLF. New incoming CEO Robert Feurle was a key exec at Infineon Technologies, a spinoff of Siemens. He also was at Micron and ams-OSRAM AG. As you may know, in 2016 Infineon (of Germany) made a buyout offer for WOLF, but the offer was blocked on grounds of national security concerns. Curious if something is now in the works between the two companies. ??? Feurle holds dual citizenship w/Germany and USA.
this is part of the combined economic and defense plan that I pointed out earlier. Xi is at the point of his party and the Chinese citizens losing confidence in his Lenin-style mentality and the US is putting the screws on them economically as well as preparing for Xi to pull something stupid with Taiwan. Its a shift towards the country who is the US' best friend in the region instead of the Chamberlain-like kowtowing to the world's #1 villain that we've seen since Bush II took over, Obama with Clinton, and Biden.
Nvidia makes major announcement. All computing will be manufactured and built in America. As great President Trump might say…yuuuuuge!
+1
Hope everyone is happy now.
Partnership with TSM and Foxconn.
Let's just hope the NVDIA plants comes to fruition (won't happen overnight) unlike the FOXCONN plant that was supposed to be brought back to Indiana or Wisc (I forget which) but never materialized.+1
Hope everyone is happy now.
Partnership with TSM and Foxconn.
I think the US TSM plant is already being built. Been hearing about this for about a year.
+1
Hope everyone is happy now.
Partnership with TSM and Foxconn.
Some of the posters in this thread are going to be very unhappy lol!