I swapped my ETH for SOL when ETH was at 4100 months ago and SOL was about 110. Though I’d like to still have some ETH in my portfolio, I don’t regret the swap.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
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SOL has been stuck in the mud for quite a while. I'd be happy to shift some resources back to SOL futures in preparation for the ETF approvals.
It’s up 30% in 10 days
. From the 2022 lows eth is up 3x, bitcoin 7x and sol 20x. Sol ran earliest, so there was bound to be some catching up. I can only imagine that someone is spinning up a sol treasury company as we speak.And speaking of runners, my favorite now has a publicly traded treasury company. I’m not saying we are near a top, but when it happens there will be things to look back on as signs.
Checking in to see if our TA master is around @rutgersguy2
China looking strong (until the next rug pull):
iShares China Large-Cap ETF
China looking strong (until the next rug pull):
iShares China Large-Cap ETF
It’s up 30% in 10 days
And speaking of runners, my favorite now has a publicly traded treasury company. I’m not saying we are near a top, but when it happens there will be things to look back on as signs.
You can't keep cherry-picking the 2022 low (ancient history). Performance since the April/tariff lows is way more important now.
BONK's chart looks messy. Maybe this is a catalyst?
Like I posted, I got in on SOL with my swap at around 110 less than 6 months ago and it’s up almost 100%. Percentage wise, SOL has performed better than ETH since my swap
Yes it is on Friday 8/15. It could come early tomorrow, hope it isn’t delayed like Kalvista & Novovax’s recent (eventual) proposals.
Very interesting, big thanks for the heads up! I will look into it.Yes it is on Friday 8/15. It could come early tomorrow, hope it isn’t delayed like Kalvista & Novovax’s recent (eventual) proposals.
I own zero Solana, so I don’t really have a dog in the race. It’s not cherry picking, it’s measuring the cycle as everyone in crypto does. I was telling you to buy Solana when it was $10 so no cherry picking needed here.
Even using your arbitrary April number, sol is up 95%. Don’t see the stuck in mud in realty.
Do you really think 4-year cycles matter anymore? Serious question, not about SOL vs. ETH. I just see many things that point to the 4-year cycle being a remnant of the past. So much has changed with the ETFs and Trump.
Until proven otherwise, yes. That said, I’ve said for two years that I’ll be interested to see how the ETF flows impact the traditional cycles. It may very well be different, it wouldn’t shock me at all.
It’s up 30% in 10 days
And speaking of runners, my favorite now has a publicly traded treasury company. I’m not saying we are near a top, but when it happens there will be things to look back on as signs.
Lets go BONK. I only own 1B now but still would like to see this go somewhere--all speculation of course
Pretty much proves how bad government data is. PPI was literally 0% last month. So absolutely no impact in June, but major impact in July? LOL.
I for one do not. I think the last one was coincidental, ie gov't stimulus during Covid was the driver for that surge. This surge is now Trump pro crypto policies and institutional adoption.
I don't know. But we are talking 2 runs. Hardly a trend.
What are the actual drivers in this theory? Just waning and rising interest that fluctuates every 4 years?
The driver is the pattern that’s happened every four years since inception, coinciding with the halving cycles.
That rainbow chart doesn’t show a trend over three cycles? Down in yellow, bottom, chop/up in blue and green, up in red to a top and back down/repeat. You’ve correctly identified two ups, but crypto bottomed in November 2018 and was already recovered before Covid, the exact pattern from November 2013-14.
I’m not saying it holds, but it’s what everyone expects. Every time there’s a dip the crypto world is ready for the next crash and acts accordingly. Aggressive shorting will make it worse and at some point it almost becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.
The driver is the pattern?
BTC's 2019 high was in July, was then dropping the rest of the year. Still below those highs just prior to the Covid dip.
The BTC chart is so extreme you can't even see the early price movement in those early years.
But breaking it down I see a spike in 2011. A spike in 2013. Another in 2017. Then we have 2021. So prior to the gov't spending fueled 2021 spike we are talking 2 events which jive with this 4 year cycle theory. And the 2011 spike is ignored in the theory.
But breaking it down I see a spike in 2011. A spike in 2013. Another in 2017. Then we have 2021. So prior to the gov't spending fueled 2021 spike we are talking 2 events which jive with this 4 year cycle theory. And the 2011 spike is ignored in the theory.
Right, so it recovered before Covid and the stimulus you mention. The move from $3k in late 2018 to $13k in July 2019 lines up with a halving front run. Each halving has seen a 2-300% run leading up to it.
Its the same thing now, you’re calling this pump Trump specific, but it ran from $16k to $80k before we knew we was going to win and we had an anti-crypto administration. Sure, the etf was a big driver too, but it all lines up with the halving and cycle.
All of this is altcoin focused for me, I’ll continue to hold Bitcoin, but altcoins are behind sensitive to these cycles.
There was no similar run up in 2015. Troughed in 2015. 4 years later it was a mid cycle run up.
If we look at 2024, this run up exceeded previous highs which is not something we saw in 2019, and as mentioned the opposite of 2015. And was 5 years after the 2019 mid cycle run.
So even if we agree previous halving's had significant influence on price action we are already seeing movement that does not resemble previous cycles. Halvings having much less significance, gov't and institutions having much more. The fact that gov't runs on 4 year cycle's that aligns with the halvings? Interesting I guess but coincidental imo.
January of 2015 it was $150, it was $650 at halving in 2016. Very similar run.
Here's a clearer chart of the four phases within the cycle. The lows always come in November/December, thus the conversation here. Every cycle has macro conditions that when looking back can be seen as part of the equation too. The goal here is to look forward. Macro conditions (rate cuts) will be at odds with the timing of the cycle now, so we will get to see what happens next. I will be out of everything but bitcoin by late fall and will watch.
So CoreWeave missed on earnings, but was way up on revenue. Also, the IPO unlock hit so people could sell that got in at $40'ish. Any other news?
Overall, doesn't sound that negative.
Yes. Might be bumpy rid for now. This is a long term play. Like 2 years. Really is a 10 year play but din’t expect anybody to hold that long, i might. The amount they are buying and trying to expand is awesome. Long term hold. Maybe im wrong
I still own TeraWulf in our Roth IRAs accounts. It blew the F up today on the Google news!
From Tom Lee and crew:
How PPI Ended Up Not Being a Disaster
It’s safe to say yesterday morning’s wholesale inflation report took us all by surprise. Kinda like summer showers, washing away hopes for jumbo interest-rate cut that some so naively believed they deserved.
The producer-price index rose 0.9% in July from the month before, coming in much hotter than the 0.2% expected by economists. It marked the biggest jump since June 2022. Core PPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, also climbed 0.9% on the month, higher than the 0.3% expected.
Digging deeper, it was worrying to see what pushed up PPI. The biggest jump came from services, which rose 0.945%. It’s not the best piece of news because it means inflation could be moving from goods to the more sticky services prices. The idea is that once you get used to making a certain amount of money for your service, it’s hard for you to lower your rate.
Within that services segment itself, the biggest contributor was trade services, rising 2% from the month before. What is that vague sounding term? It’s the margin mark-up that wholesalers and retailers charge, a concerning sign that tariffs are actually showing up. Last month, the margin they were charging went up the most in machinery and equipment, followed by a bunch of finance-related services like portfolio management.
A few minutes after the open, the S&P 500 fell as much as 0.4%.
But here’s how investors were able to convince themselves this isn’t the worst report ever, leading the broad-based index to finish barely higher, in turn setting a fresh record. Hey, I say a win is a win.
On the totem pole of economic reports, PPI doesn’t rank at the top and it doesn’t help that it’s been way too volatile recently. Investors watch it only because components from the PPI report filter through to the personal-consumption-expenditures price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation report.
As everyone is already ultra-aware, the Fed is under insane amounts of pressure from the president to cut rates. So when the report suggests that wholesale inflation is up 3.3% from a year ago, running above the central bank’s 2% target, it really ties their hands.
Well, color us lucky. The PPI numbers going into PCE don’t look all too shabby. Let me explain how. Within PPI, there’s two kinds of data sets: PPI Commodity and PPI Industry. From PPI Commodity, the BLS calculates final demand PPI, which is the headline number I wrote about in the second paragraph.
Meanwhile, in the PPI Industry, both final demand and a bunch of other stuff is included, which can cause the numbers and contributors to differ. This is what is used to create the PCE report.
Yesterday’s report showed that the top three highest-weighted PPI items going into the PCE aren’t related to tariffs. Here’s what they are: Hospitals rose 3.2% from a year ago, physician services rose 1.8%, and portfolio management and investment advice services rose 12.4%.
That means a 25-basis point cut in September is still very much on the table. Hopes for a bigger rate cut were unrealistic anyway.
How PPI Ended Up Not Being a Disaster
It’s safe to say yesterday morning’s wholesale inflation report took us all by surprise. Kinda like summer showers, washing away hopes for jumbo interest-rate cut that some so naively believed they deserved.
The producer-price index rose 0.9% in July from the month before, coming in much hotter than the 0.2% expected by economists. It marked the biggest jump since June 2022. Core PPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, also climbed 0.9% on the month, higher than the 0.3% expected.
Digging deeper, it was worrying to see what pushed up PPI. The biggest jump came from services, which rose 0.945%. It’s not the best piece of news because it means inflation could be moving from goods to the more sticky services prices. The idea is that once you get used to making a certain amount of money for your service, it’s hard for you to lower your rate.
Within that services segment itself, the biggest contributor was trade services, rising 2% from the month before. What is that vague sounding term? It’s the margin mark-up that wholesalers and retailers charge, a concerning sign that tariffs are actually showing up. Last month, the margin they were charging went up the most in machinery and equipment, followed by a bunch of finance-related services like portfolio management.
A few minutes after the open, the S&P 500 fell as much as 0.4%.
But here’s how investors were able to convince themselves this isn’t the worst report ever, leading the broad-based index to finish barely higher, in turn setting a fresh record. Hey, I say a win is a win.
On the totem pole of economic reports, PPI doesn’t rank at the top and it doesn’t help that it’s been way too volatile recently. Investors watch it only because components from the PPI report filter through to the personal-consumption-expenditures price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation report.
As everyone is already ultra-aware, the Fed is under insane amounts of pressure from the president to cut rates. So when the report suggests that wholesale inflation is up 3.3% from a year ago, running above the central bank’s 2% target, it really ties their hands.
Well, color us lucky. The PPI numbers going into PCE don’t look all too shabby. Let me explain how. Within PPI, there’s two kinds of data sets: PPI Commodity and PPI Industry. From PPI Commodity, the BLS calculates final demand PPI, which is the headline number I wrote about in the second paragraph.
Meanwhile, in the PPI Industry, both final demand and a bunch of other stuff is included, which can cause the numbers and contributors to differ. This is what is used to create the PCE report.
Yesterday’s report showed that the top three highest-weighted PPI items going into the PCE aren’t related to tariffs. Here’s what they are: Hospitals rose 3.2% from a year ago, physician services rose 1.8%, and portfolio management and investment advice services rose 12.4%.
That means a 25-basis point cut in September is still very much on the table. Hopes for a bigger rate cut were unrealistic anyway.