OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
- Start date
New from COIN:
The Mag7 + Crypto Equity Index Futures are now live, offering a streamlined way to gain exposure to the world's biggest tech stocks and leading crypto ETFs. This unique index provides built-in diversification across these traditionally separate asset classes, allowing you to speculate, manage risk and hedge your portfolio.
The Mag7 + Crypto Equity Index is a hybrid index composed of both traditional equities and cryptocurrency ETFs. Components of the index are equally weighted and include:
1. “Magnificent 7” Stocks: The top seven (7) technology companies in the US stock market including
a. Apple Inc. (AAPL)
b. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
c. Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
d. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
e. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
f. Meta Platforms Inc. (META)
g. Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
2. Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) Stock
3. Cryptocurrency ETFs
a. iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT)
b. iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA)
Please note, as component prices change, their weighting in the index will shift. To maintain balance, the index is rebalanced quarterly, resetting each component back to a 10% weight.
The Mag7 + Crypto Equity Index Futures are now live, offering a streamlined way to gain exposure to the world's biggest tech stocks and leading crypto ETFs. This unique index provides built-in diversification across these traditionally separate asset classes, allowing you to speculate, manage risk and hedge your portfolio.
The Mag7 + Crypto Equity Index is a hybrid index composed of both traditional equities and cryptocurrency ETFs. Components of the index are equally weighted and include:
1. “Magnificent 7” Stocks: The top seven (7) technology companies in the US stock market including
a. Apple Inc. (AAPL)
b. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
c. Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
d. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
e. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
f. Meta Platforms Inc. (META)
g. Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
2. Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) Stock
3. Cryptocurrency ETFs
a. iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT)
b. iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA)
Please note, as component prices change, their weighting in the index will shift. To maintain balance, the index is rebalanced quarterly, resetting each component back to a 10% weight.
From FS Insights on gold:
In case you’ve been sleeping under a rock (not the shiny kind), gold has had an incredible run to records this year. The role lower government-bond yields may have had in that isn’t being discussed enough.
Recent data show that the 60-day correlation between gold prices and the 10-year Treasury yield is at negative 0.47, hovering near the 2025 low of negative 0.52 hit in late August. The last time that happened was in March 2024, according to our data team’s analysis.
That deeply negative correlation marks a huge reversal from April and May when they had both moved higher together. Investors sought refuge from tariffs and declining stocks in gold, all the while betting that interest rates would remain higher for longer to tamp down an increase in inflation from duties.
That’s not supposed to happen, according to market basics. But back then, it felt like the sky was falling, so it might excuse some of the unusual moves. Lots of playbooks broke down in that topsy-turvy market.
Since then, some sense of normalcy between the two assets has been restored, giving investors one less thing to worry about. When yields on the safest, risk-free asset such as the 10-year Treasury decline, it gives investors reasons to own even an income-less investment like gold. Thankfully, that’s what’s up right now.
Gold’s persistent and relentless 41% rise this year has lapped past the S&P 500’s 13% increase and even some of the hottest stocks and investments. It has outperformed chip darling Nvidia, which has gained “only” 28%, and Google’s 30% increase. Bitcoin and ethereum have added about 20% and 25%, respectively.
The 10-year Treasury yield, meanwhile, has come down in recent months. On Wednesday, yields settled at 4.152%. Three months ago, they were at 4.292%.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled this week that the central bank isn’t done with its rate-cutting cycle because the board remains concerned about the pockets of weakness popping up in the labor market.
While the rates the board sets can influence short-term borrowing rates, the longer ones are dictated by market participants instead.
Recent moves in longer-term yields suggest that investors are doubtful that we go back to an era where lower rates were the standard. However, if it keeps becoming clearer that tariffs won’t have a significant inflationary effect and that revenue generated from tariffs can be used to pay down the U.S. debt, yields might actually continue their downward slide.
In that case, expect rates to continue adding fuel to gold’s fire rally.
In case you’ve been sleeping under a rock (not the shiny kind), gold has had an incredible run to records this year. The role lower government-bond yields may have had in that isn’t being discussed enough.
Recent data show that the 60-day correlation between gold prices and the 10-year Treasury yield is at negative 0.47, hovering near the 2025 low of negative 0.52 hit in late August. The last time that happened was in March 2024, according to our data team’s analysis.
That deeply negative correlation marks a huge reversal from April and May when they had both moved higher together. Investors sought refuge from tariffs and declining stocks in gold, all the while betting that interest rates would remain higher for longer to tamp down an increase in inflation from duties.
That’s not supposed to happen, according to market basics. But back then, it felt like the sky was falling, so it might excuse some of the unusual moves. Lots of playbooks broke down in that topsy-turvy market.
Since then, some sense of normalcy between the two assets has been restored, giving investors one less thing to worry about. When yields on the safest, risk-free asset such as the 10-year Treasury decline, it gives investors reasons to own even an income-less investment like gold. Thankfully, that’s what’s up right now.
Gold’s persistent and relentless 41% rise this year has lapped past the S&P 500’s 13% increase and even some of the hottest stocks and investments. It has outperformed chip darling Nvidia, which has gained “only” 28%, and Google’s 30% increase. Bitcoin and ethereum have added about 20% and 25%, respectively.
The 10-year Treasury yield, meanwhile, has come down in recent months. On Wednesday, yields settled at 4.152%. Three months ago, they were at 4.292%.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled this week that the central bank isn’t done with its rate-cutting cycle because the board remains concerned about the pockets of weakness popping up in the labor market.
While the rates the board sets can influence short-term borrowing rates, the longer ones are dictated by market participants instead.
Recent moves in longer-term yields suggest that investors are doubtful that we go back to an era where lower rates were the standard. However, if it keeps becoming clearer that tariffs won’t have a significant inflationary effect and that revenue generated from tariffs can be used to pay down the U.S. debt, yields might actually continue their downward slide.
In that case, expect rates to continue adding fuel to gold’s fire rally.
I'm doing some reallocations, which means trimming growth ETFs/funds and moving the money to my value or core holdings.
Also moving money from my savings which is now paying 3.75% to SGOV which is at 4.35%. Not sure how long the latter will stay at it's current rate, but it should be above the savings account rate even if it comes down to meet current fed funds rates.
Edit: First I am going to move money from my MS savings to an external account, and then transfer that money back to my MS brokerage account. Hope I can take advantage of a promotion for a quick 1%.
Edit: First I am going to move money from my MS savings to an external account, and then transfer that money back to my MS brokerage account. Hope I can take advantage of a promotion for a quick 1%.
Last edited:
Done. Think I was up 10% on this trade. Did really well on a trade earlier this year. Hope to get back in at a lower level.Can you sell some HOOD please? I would like to 5x this position.
Good point. I have a bunch of cash in my personal account automatically sitting in Fidelity's money market fund, which normally has a really good rate. It's probably down to 3.5% now, so likely better options to explore.
SGOV seems like good solution. I don't know if 4.35% holds up, but it was at this rate while my savings was at 4%, so I figure it will stay higher then my current 3.75%
IDK what this guy is talking about nobody cares about gold unless it’s the digital kind LOL Novogratz, CW, Saylor…over the course of time history will continue to show physical beats digital. I def sold my gold miners too early in the run!
I put my cash into SGOV which is a no risk 4.35% a 0-3 month treasury bond etf.
But I'm seeing some corporate bond etf's which pay as much as 6.5%(JNK in this case, maybe some higher one's out there?) but there is some risk there. It is pretty low beta (.27), so definitely lower risk then equities, and even better the charts look good.
But I'm seeing some corporate bond etf's which pay as much as 6.5%(JNK in this case, maybe some higher one's out there?) but there is some risk there. It is pretty low beta (.27), so definitely lower risk then equities, and even better the charts look good.
I generally prefer going with T-Bills as that SGOV 4.35% is 30-days backward looking. With a T-Bill I know the exact amount I will get if held to maturity.
Also, if SGOV is sold before the monthly ex-div date any gains are taxed as capital gains so are not exempt from state taxes. If a T-Bill is sold before maturity any gains are still considered interest and exempt from state taxes
Up 9% today.Can you sell some HOOD please? I would like to 5x this position.
Sounds interesting, not really sure what it means:
Wolfspeed (WOLF) Stock Soars 1,100% On Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Update
12:48 PM ET Sep-29-2025
Wolfspeed Inc (WOLF.NaE) shares are surging Monday afternoon after the company announced a reorganization plan, with shareholders receiving substituted new common stock. The stock surged as much as 1,450% following news of its Chapter 11 restructuring and corporate changes. Here’s what investors need to know.
What To Know: Wolfspeed’s court-approved plan will slash its debt by 70%, from $6.5 billion to $2 billion, and cut interest payments by about 60%. As part of the process, Wolfspeed (WOLF.NaE) will reincorporate from North Carolina to Delaware.
In connection with these changes, the New York Stock Exchange suspended trading of the “old” Wolfspeed (WOLF.NaE) common stock on Monday. Wolfspeed’s “old” common stock is set to be delisted on Oct. 10.
Shareholders will receive new common stock in the reorganized company. However, the restructuring involves significant dilution, with current shareholders set to receive only 3-5% of the new equity as creditors take majority ownership.
The massive debt reduction sparked speculative trading, fueling the dramatic price surge amid several trading halts Monday morning.
Another rug pull coming or is legalization legit this time? I guess we shall see!
Yikes regarding WOLF:
Big Losses on WOLF Stock
On Monday, Wolfspeed announced that existing shareholders received their pro rata share of the 'new' company: 1,306,903 shares at an exchange rate of 0.008352. In other words, 120 (119.7, to be exact) 'old' shares turned into 1 'new' share. This is a brutal outcome for shareholders, who owned WOLF at $1.21 per share on Friday; that price suggested that 'new' WOLF would need to trade at $145 per share for the equity value in the new company to be equivalent. Monday's close of $22.10 on its face thus suggests a loss of about 85%.
But there's a catch here. Monday's 8-K also notes that old shareholders can receive their share of another 871,287 shares in the new company. In other words, the 1.3M shares received so far account for 3% ownership of the new company. The remaining 2% (which, per social media commentary, appears allocated in some brokerage accounts but not at all; again, this does not appear to have been a well-run process) can still be gained if Renesas gets its approvals by the "regulatory trigger deadline" (I had previously thought this coincided with the exit bankruptcy, but that deadline actually appears to be three years from now).
Even so, the losses will be substantial. The combined exchange ratio is 0.01392, or about 72 to 1; the current price of $22.10 suggests a value for the 'old' shares of about $0.31. That's a nearly 75% loss from Friday's close.
LABU has been looking good for a few months. CURE is just now breaking out.
think i might go the latter.
Along these lines MRNA and ABBV topped my board today.
Great day, but RDDT kicked me in the teeth. Down 11% due to another AI issue. Still up 120%.
BTC, ETH, and SOL mooning on the jobs data. Fed to cut, cut, cut!
CURE also has a bigger potential to gap up. I'll be buying calls. PILL is another leveraged healthcare ETF to consider.
Remember, PILL, CURE, LABU are all leveraged ETF's and can be extremely volatile. Everyone should have strict stop loss.
Speaking of leveraged ETFs, I'm still rocking 2 QLD positions since early/mid 2023. They are doing well.
But QLD is only 2x.
Tom Lee/FS Insights:
The government shutdown started at Wed 12:01am ET and this means that we will not be getting data from BLS or any agency until the shutdown is over. But we think this is a “sidebar” issue and probabilities heavily favor stocks strong from Oct to Dec this year — in fact, we see S&P 500 reaching at least 7,000 by year-end and maybe higher.
The government shutdown started at Wed 12:01am ET and this means that we will not be getting data from BLS or any agency until the shutdown is over. But we think this is a “sidebar” issue and probabilities heavily favor stocks strong from Oct to Dec this year — in fact, we see S&P 500 reaching at least 7,000 by year-end and maybe higher.
- The government shutdown lasted 35 days in Dec 2018 and this would be a long stretch. In fact, it would be so long, the Fed would not have any new data for its Oct FOMC rate decision (10/29) and most likely would have to rely on the August jobs report (weak) and then ADP yesterday. This would be dovish, because the Fed would have to act with caution.
- After all, the economy suffers from a shutdown, from lost activity, so this would be a reason for the Fed to lean dovish on its next rate decision. The ADP report was soft and what was notable, in our view, is the drop in “job changer” median pay. It fell month over month and the yoy pace is settling in at 6.6%, so this hardly paints a picture of a strong jobs market.
- I would not lean “bearish” because of shutdowns. As we highlighted earlier this week, shutdowns have rarely created lasting impacts on equities. So if stocks are down, we would be dip buyers. This is something to be mindful of, as we may hear of dire warnings of calamity because of the shutdown.
- But more importantly, we are entering the strong seasonal period (4Q) and this means stocks higher.
– since 1950, Oct to Dec median gain +4.9% (n=75)
– this implies S&P 500 7,050
– win-ratio 81%
– Fed cut in Sep, like 1998 and 2024
– avg gain 1998/2024 +13.8%
– implies S&P 500 7,750 - You get the picture. There is a strong seasonal tailwind underway and the upside is higher given the Fed is dovish. That is what we think also makes sense, given the continued skepticism around equities.
- So, we would urge looking through the messiness of the shutdown, and even the lack of data. If stocks are particularly weak, I would use this to “buy the dip.” And the same strategy holds for sectors (see below). I would not advise going “defensive” — except, owning Gold and Bitcoin make sense.
Tom Lee knows more than I ever will regarding equities and the economy. However, his "buy the dip" comment is interesting to me... the S&P rose 4.6% in September. If it does dip because of gov't shutdown in early October, he recommends buying that dip, which is fine, but on the heels of a 5% September, any dip most likely would still have you buying at an increase over last month. The entire market seems so bubbly and full of optimism, i have no ability to time it so I just buy the same amount 2x per month every month.
I do love Beta.
My JNUG has been a beast.Speaking of leveraged ETFs, I'm still rocking 2 QLD positions since early/mid 2023. They are doing well.
But QLD is only 2x.