But it is, we all know it.
Any comments on QT/QE yet? I believe the run off is ending, which is very bullish.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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Any comments on QT/QE yet? I believe the run off is ending, which is very bullish.
QT ends December 1stBut it is, we all know it.
Any comments on QT/QE yet? I believe the run off is ending, which is very bullish.
NOW with the double beat and 5:1 share spilt:
What the hell is NOK? LOL. Seriously, I saw the big pop yesterday on the new, but I know next to nothing about the company.
Nokia. An old RU friend recently retired from there. He was an EE, who went on to Princeton for grad school. Originally worked for Bell Labs/AT&T, which became Lucent, later acquired by Alcatel, which was taken into Nokia. 45 years of service in all. He was instrumental in developing 5G.
45 years is an amazing run. My dad worked at Union Carbide/Dow Chemical for 38 years before retiring. He started there right out of RU.
Tom Lee Update:
Key takeaway Fed presser: inflation close to target but jobs is weak = dovish. Trump-Xi meeting is "12" on a scale of 1 to 10 = positive for stocks.
The S&P 500 closed essentially “flat” Wednesday after the Fed FOMC Oct rate decision. The cut of -25bp was expected, but Fed Chair Powell’s comments about future path of rates created a bit of market confusion. In reviewing carefully the press conference, we view his overall comments as dovish (explained below) and moreover, the Trump-Xi meeting seems to have gone well — enough so the President deemed it “on a scale of 1 to 10, the meeting with Xi was a 12”
Key takeaway Fed presser: inflation close to target but jobs is weak = dovish. Trump-Xi meeting is "12" on a scale of 1 to 10 = positive for stocks.
The S&P 500 closed essentially “flat” Wednesday after the Fed FOMC Oct rate decision. The cut of -25bp was expected, but Fed Chair Powell’s comments about future path of rates created a bit of market confusion. In reviewing carefully the press conference, we view his overall comments as dovish (explained below) and moreover, the Trump-Xi meeting seems to have gone well — enough so the President deemed it “on a scale of 1 to 10, the meeting with Xi was a 12”
- Equities closed flat on Wednesday, but the intraday decline was more than 1% and the VIX climbed on the day from 16 to 17. Initially, equities responded negatively to Powell stating a Dec cut is “not a foregone” conclusion. But by the close, equities managed to climb back to flat.
- Our takeaways from the FOMC press conference are as follows:
– Fed now viewing tariff related price increases as “one-time” and not inflation = good
– therefore, PCE inflation implied at 2.3%-2.4% “not that far off” from target = good
– Fed will not have PCE due to gov’t shutdown
– labor markets are showing slowing job gains, which he views as “due to supply”
– and he views job growth currently as “close to zero” = more likely to cut
– current rates are looser but “I wouldn’t say they are accomodative now” = room for cuts - To me, this is overall positive and more dovish than the official take. That is, the Fed is saying inflation is pretty much on target, rates have room to decline and there is no jobs growth. So, I would view this as overall dovish.
- But the Fed did explain why “December is not a foregone conclusion” and it is due to disagreement among FOMC members about the neutral rate. Some believe the Fed is already there. But to me, this is also noise. If the job market continues to stall, the Fed will be dovish.
- Part of the reason for jobs softness is the gains made by AI. Thus, corporate profits for those companies leveraged to AI, benefit from this shift. Meaning, equities could rise, and jobs market weakens, but this would lead to a dovish Fed. Because the Fed’s mandate is labor markets, not targeting corporate profits.
- As for Trump-Xi meeting on Thursday, the reports coming from Asia are positive:
– President Trump “On a scale from 1 to 10, this meeting with Xi was a 12” - This is as good as one can expect. And as a result of the meeting:
– US and China will work to collaborate on Ukraine.
– China will begin buying soybeans and resume rare earth exports.
– Further discuss chip restrictions.
– China tariffs cut to 47% from 57%.
– Fentanyl tariffs slashed to 10% now
– Trump will visit China in April 2026 and Xi will visit the US soon.
See's that as why Meta is down. Capex growth exceeding revenue growth.
GM posted a bunch of short videos last night on META, MSFT, and GOOGL. Also one on the AI trade, CapEx, and what it means to NVDA (very bullish). You should check out his YT channel.
My leap calls for CMG are going to get crushed today! Do I buy more? Not sure. I may need to wait and see what happens. SBUX had a decent report. And SHAK was pretty good.
CMG is in the falling knife category. I think you might be able to catch a bounce with shorter terms call options, but the longer term trend is downward until proven otherwise. Imo.
I pretty much agree. This is the 3rd quarter that was meh to bad. CMG is in the "prove it" category now.
Calls down 35% today. Not as bad as I thought, but they are Jan 2028 contracts, so plenty of time. I'm going to hold for now, but not add.
I see SBUX turned positive.
What's the current thought on BTC's price action?
Is the 4 year price cycle theory still being leaned on? I feel like this weakness may be people trying to front run that. And I don't think that theory is real, at least not as something that continues moving fwd, and I could see a run late this year early next year.
Is the 4 year price cycle theory still being leaned on? I feel like this weakness may be people trying to front run that. And I don't think that theory is real, at least not as something that continues moving fwd, and I could see a run late this year early next year.
Any downturn in price lately is amplified by people fearing “the top is in” and it’s the beginning of the next bear market. A lot of people hold the opinion below (from a logical poster in X), which would align with your thinking.
“Because of vestigal memetic consensus around the 4 year cycle, there is way too much underlying fear around "the top". I am convicted BTC simply doesn't trade like that anymore given it has been captured by tradfi and is a more pure expression of liquidity conditions. That said, it feels like BTC's recent underperformance vs. gold is driven by jitters around the 4 year cycle and OGs and other parties selling and acting as a drag on price. All of these things will wash out in time. At some point the underlying drivers for BTC will push it higher and when gold's momentum slows down that liquidity will re-enter BTC as well, acting as a slingshot.”
Is the 4-year cycle even a thing anymore? Lots of meaningful changes to the market over the past 2 years.
That’s the question. We won’t know until the pattern is broken in hindsight. Some say it was never a thing, some say it’s gone because of market changes, others are banking on it extending into 2026 because of market changes. But any time there’s a shakeout it appears to be exaggerated by people selling thinking a bear market is coming.
For me, easiest way to play it is to just keep dca’ing as the price will be much higher in the future regardless of cycles
Are you still only focusing on BTC and SOL? I'm having trouble getting too interested in anything other than the big dog.
@T2Kplus20 , looks like GPCR is gaining momentum, lots of buy and overweight recommendations. Price movement also attributed to Pfizer dropping out of the oral weight-loss pill and lots of positive results in their Phase II results (6% weight loss in 12 week trials).
Very true! And I think there's been some skepticism with Viking and its asset, so Structure may become the new belle of the ball!
Whoever figures out a competitive oral option first will see their stock MOON beyond belief.