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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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Navion N8865H said:
Would you guys educate me - the last couple years I've been reading about AI. I still can't figure out if companies will be able to monetize it or will regret running up debt? I get that AI is here to stay, but is it worth the cost at this point?

Are there still AI buys right now? The utilities that will power the data centers? NVDA?
Click to expand...
A common narrative right now is it is inevitable that some companies will overspend. And that is the weight on ORCL, META and even NVDA to some extent.

Are those companies at that point yet? Maybe, maybe not. Market is trying to sort that out.

But other companies, like GOOGL are ripping, in part, because of AI.

Another part of this narrative is that "non AI" companies will soon reap the benefits of AI capabilities. Financials for instance(great performance this year), industrials as well(see CAT).
 
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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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RUT has outperformed the S&P, but not the Nasdaq, over the last 6 months.

RUT outperforming them both over the last month.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,734
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Rutgers Chris said:
Google just keeps winning. What they’ve done outside of their core business with Google Ventures, Waymo, Isomorphic Labs, Deep Mind, etc is fascinating.

Click to expand...

Wow, I didn't know that or that Fidelity owns 10% of SpaceX! I assume this is mostly via their mutual funds? I own FBGRX and SpaceX is a small holding of the fund (1% or so).
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,734
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RU05 said:
A common narrative right now is it is inevitable that some companies will overspend. And that is the weight on ORCL, META and even NVDA to some extent.

Are those companies at that point yet? Maybe, maybe not. Market is trying to sort that out.

But other companies, like GOOGL are ripping, in part, because of AI.

Another part of this narrative is that "non AI" companies will soon reap the benefits of AI capabilities. Financials for instance(great performance this year), industrials as well(see CAT).
Click to expand...
With GOOGL blowing up, you can clearly see the market is still desperately trying to find the future "winners" of the AI race.

And this goes for GEV today as well. In order for AI to work, we need more energy/electrical infrastructure. GEV, PWR, and Eaton are associated AI plays.
 
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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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.25% cut. Some dissenting for no cut. One dissenting for .50%.

Market goes green on the news.

The RUT up more then 1.6%. Again outperforming.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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RU05 said:
.25% cut. Some dissenting for no cut. One dissenting for .50%.

Market goes green on the news.

The RUT up more then 1.6%. Again outperforming.
Click to expand...
Pretty much as expected. Sounds like 1 or 2 cuts for 2026 (pending the new chair) so that gets rates down to 3.25/3.5'ish. Neutral is around 3'ish, so we should be in good shape. Probably more important is the Fed starting to buy $40-50B in T-bills a month. That's some nice QE! :)

No surprise to see R2K leading the way.
 
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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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T2Kplus20 said:
Pretty much as expected. Sounds like 1 or 2 cuts for 2026 (pending the new chair) so that gets rates down to 3.25/3.5'ish. Neutral is around 3'ish, so we should be in good shape. Probably more important is the Fed starting to buy $40-50B in T-bills a month. That's some nice QE! :)

No surprise to see R2K leading the way.
Click to expand...
Side note. SLB with a nice day and looks like it is breaking out.

how are those calls?
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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RU05 said:
Side note. SLB with a nice day and looks like it is breaking out.

how are those calls?
Click to expand...
Now +40% with my position (Jan 2027). Closing price is $5.97 and my CB is $4.26. Things change quickly with calls, even with leaps.

I really think this new "QE" is pumping the areas of the market you would expect it to benefit.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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Tom Lee starting to drop his 2026 Market Outlook. Preview:

2026 OUTLOOK: Wall of Skepticism + New Fed
  • After 3 years >20% yearly gains, bull market still alive. S&P 500 10% gain, “E” needs to catch up to “P/E”
    – Year-end 2026 S&P 500 Target is 7,700
  • The significant “Wall of Worry” is a tailwind for bull market
  • New Fed = dovish policy = positive for stocks in 2H
  • Major drivers of earnings and GDP in 2026:
    – AI and energy infrastructure
    – Wall Street moving onto blockchain
    – On-shoring
  • Favorite sectors:
    – Technology (AI, Bitcoin & Ethereum)
    – Basic Materials, Energy
    – and Financials
 
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rurahrah000

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Aug 21, 2010
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T2Kplus20 said:
Tom Lee starting to drop his 2026 Market Outlook. Preview:

2026 OUTLOOK: Wall of Skepticism + New Fed
  • After 3 years >20% yearly gains, bull market still alive. S&P 500 10% gain, “E” needs to catch up to “P/E”
    – Year-end 2026 S&P 500 Target is 7,700
  • The significant “Wall of Worry” is a tailwind for bull market
  • New Fed = dovish policy = positive for stocks in 2H
  • Major drivers of earnings and GDP in 2026:
    – AI and energy infrastructure
    – Wall Street moving onto blockchain
    – On-shoring
  • Favorite sectors:
    – Technology (AI, Bitcoin & Ethereum)
    – Basic Materials, Energy
    – and Financials
Click to expand...
If Tom Lee says that we will only be up 10% next year, we are in deep trouble
 
R

RUAldo

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Sep 11, 2008
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T2K - since you are an industry player, what are your top 3 Pharma/biotech picks? I’m already in MIST figuring I’d gamble since worst case scenario is I use it for tax loss harvesting to address a hefty tax bill next April. I also own Insmed.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,734
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RUAldo said:
T2K - since you are an industry player, what are your top 3 Pharma/biotech picks? I’m already in MIST figuring I’d gamble since worst case scenario is I use it for tax loss harvesting to address a hefty tax bill next April. I also own Insmed.
Click to expand...
My biotech home run swings are:
1. MIST - approval decision will be announced on Friday or Monday. This is an all or nothing play.
2. PRME - very early clinical-stage biotech, but I love its science and believe they will be successful. Watch and slowly buy during dips.
3. Love Insmed.....very good company. They only have one main product, but good pipeline.
4. Ascendis - growing sales with already 3 products approved in the US.
5. Madrigal - NASH/MASH is a great space to be in (adjacent to obesity/GLP-1s).

Many other good ones to chat about, but this is my list for now.
 
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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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CSCO first record close this century.

I'm in it. Bought in July. up 16%. Plus a tick up in the form of a 2% div.

Solid but not sexy, (yet at least) good to have those in the portfolio.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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RU05 said:
Warning!!

I'm going to buy some SLB today. So if you are in it, you might want to sell some calls.
Click to expand...
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,734
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RU05 said:
CSCO first record close this century.

I'm in it. Bought in July. up 16%. Plus a tick up in the form of a 2% div.

Solid but not sexy, (yet at least) good to have those in the portfolio.
Click to expand...
It's remarkable how big that bubble was in 1999/2000. CSCO has been a solid, steady company for decades. Crazy that it took 25 years to set a new ATH.
 
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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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The current forward looking rev growth for ORCL is ridiculous.

$67B in 2026 (they are currently in 3rd qtr).

2028 is expected to be $126B.

$180B in 2029.

EPS expected to double 2026 to 2029.

Big debt, but if they can realize that growth it's pretty cheap.
 
R

RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
14,578
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RUT up .6% Again outperforming.

Basically even with the Nasdaq over the last 6 months. Making a run at the S&P for ytd performance. 17% vs 15.5% Nasdaq at 21.75% ytd.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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RU05 said:
The current forward looking rev growth for ORCL is ridiculous.

$67B in 2026 (they are currently in 3rd qtr).

2028 is expected to be $126B.

$180B in 2029.

EPS expected to double 2026 to 2029.

Big debt, but if they can realize that growth it's pretty cheap.
Click to expand...
Sounds like the logic here is:
ORCL has $500B+ in backlog work (and growing) and we need to spend heavy now to build the capacity to recognize this backlog opportunity.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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RU05 said:
RUT up .6% Again outperforming.

Basically even with the Nasdaq over the last 6 months. Making a run at the S&P for ytd performance. 17% vs 15.5% Nasdaq at 21.75% ytd.
Click to expand...
Makes perfect sense. Rates have been cut, QE just restarted. Life is good for the small caps. :)
 
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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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MDB which has been a beast of but is now pushing up against a highpoint downward trend that goes back 5 years.

20% growth. 20x price to sales.

Maybe a good time trim.
 
R

RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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DIS signs deal with Open AI which will allow users to create 30 sec vid's using Disney characters.

Currently a sub 16x p/e. Solid growth expected. I'm thinking multiple expansion could also be in the cards.
 
R

RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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I asked Gemini if DVN had a cup and handle formation forming on it's 10 year chart (2020 being the cup) and it gave me this.

Based on recent technical analyses, a prominent cup and handle formation
is not explicitly identified on DVN's charts, though some related bullish patterns have been noted.

Technical analysis of DVN's recent performance has highlighted different potential setups:

  • A "bull flag" pattern, indicating a slight pullback after a strong rise, which could be a buying opportunity.
  • A "consolidation triangle" with bullish potential on the 4H chart, suggesting a strong move may be imminent pending a breakout.
  • The stock is in a medium-long term rising trend channel, approaching a resistance level of $38.50.



Using AI for technical analysis, at least to run idea's by, is interesting.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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RU05 said:
DIS signs deal with Open AI which will allow users to create 30 sec vid's using Disney characters.

Currently a sub 16x p/e. Solid growth expected. I'm thinking multiple expansion could also be in the cards.
Click to expand...
Hmm, been eyeing DIS for a Jan 2028 call play. Been hoping it would creep down to $100'ish.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,734
18,745
113
RU05 said:
I asked Gemini if DVN had a cup and handle formation forming on it's 10 year chart (2020 being the cup) and it gave me this.

Based on recent technical analyses, a prominent cup and handle formation
is not explicitly identified on DVN's charts, though some related bullish patterns have been noted.

Technical analysis of DVN's recent performance has highlighted different potential setups:

  • A "bull flag" pattern, indicating a slight pullback after a strong rise, which could be a buying opportunity.
  • A "consolidation triangle" with bullish potential on the 4H chart, suggesting a strong move may be imminent pending a breakout.
  • The stock is in a medium-long term rising trend channel, approaching a resistance level of $38.50.



Using AI for technical analysis, at least to run idea's by, is interesting.
Click to expand...
That's pretty freaking cool.
 
R

Rutgers Chris

All-American
Nov 29, 2005
4,545
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RU05 said:
I asked Gemini if DVN had a cup and handle formation forming on it's 10 year chart (2020 being the cup) and it gave me this.

Based on recent technical analyses, a prominent cup and handle formation
is not explicitly identified on DVN's charts, though some related bullish patterns have been noted.

Technical analysis of DVN's recent performance has highlighted different potential setups:

  • A "bull flag" pattern, indicating a slight pullback after a strong rise, which could be a buying opportunity.
  • A "consolidation triangle" with bullish potential on the 4H chart, suggesting a strong move may be imminent pending a breakout.
  • The stock is in a medium-long term rising trend channel, approaching a resistance level of $38.50.



Using AI for technical analysis, at least to run idea's by, is interesting.
Click to expand...
Was just coming here to post this. Definitely a great idea

 
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