Lee Goldberg appears to be forecasting severe mixing in CNJ.
TWC earlier today forecasted approx 12-14 inches for CNJ
TWC earlier today forecasted approx 12-14 inches for CNJ
OT: Tracking Winter Storm Fern 1/25-26
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Offer a free Rutgers t shirt and he'll be here.
let's draw him in...
These might be too “inside baseball” for some in the thread.
There wouldn't be a shortage if they stopped salting in rain.
You sound salty. Maybe they can run the street sweepers through my town and collect all the loose salt on roads
At 5 a.m.,the National Weather Service in Mount Holly issued the briefing I've linked below. As you can see, the NWS believes at least six inches of snow is a certainty and only a 10% chance of less than 10 inches of snow in the forecast area. There is a 50% chance of more than a foot of snow, according to the briefing. The snow may mix with sleet or freezing rain or perhaps even plain rain in the southern part of the area, which of course would make things worse. Bitter cold is then expected for several nights. Be safe, everyone!
https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
Based on model trends they will be lowering those percentages
There is still 66 hours to go before storm commences. Plenty of model runs. Today and tomorrows runs more important thsn any runs before them.
GFS is really on an island with all snow 12-16 inches widespread. The other models have mixing changeover issues that the GFS is notoriously bad at fleshing out. They still have a heavy thump of snow of at least 6 and perhaps in the 8-10 inch range for Central Jersey maybe up to a foot in North Jersey
What you see though the trend has many of the models are picking up on the warm nose. The extent has yet to be determined
The NBM at this point looks overdone and thats why Mt Holly disco on 12 plus everywhere looks overdone unless modelling starts trending colder.
The idea of a coastal long duration event is less likely but still cannot be ruled out at this time. Main show could be over by midnight
Again...cannot stress enough, today and tomorrows runs are huge
GFS is really on an island with all snow 12-16 inches widespread. The other models have mixing changeover issues that the GFS is notoriously bad at fleshing out. They still have a heavy thump of snow of at least 6 and perhaps in the 8-10 inch range for Central Jersey maybe up to a foot in North Jersey
What you see though the trend has many of the models are picking up on the warm nose. The extent has yet to be determined
The NBM at this point looks overdone and thats why Mt Holly disco on 12 plus everywhere looks overdone unless modelling starts trending colder.
The idea of a coastal long duration event is less likely but still cannot be ruled out at this time. Main show could be over by midnight
Again...cannot stress enough, today and tomorrows runs are huge
Highly premature to post those amounts. NWS must be taking info from the other thread.
I hope to not eat those words.
Dan Zarrow. Too soon to post amounts but says at least 6 inches for most and 6 plus for NNJ
https://townsquare.media/site/385/files/2026/01/attachment-sunday-storm-20260122-v2.jpg
https://townsquare.media/site/385/files/2026/01/attachment-sunday-storm-20260122-v2.jpg
Looking more like mix/rain working its way in. It wouldn’t surprise me if they cut totals drastically in the next two days
Only if he can knock over a little kid to get to it!
to be fair no one has put out an official forecast yet....thats what happens when storms are closely tracked 5-7 days out. I do think that there will be alot of 6-12 or 8-12 or 10-14 inch call with maybe some 4-8 along the coast as we move forward but I think the idea of region wide swath of 12-18 is looking less likely, not to say that someone will not get those high amounts somewhere in the regio
NBM
General weighting philosophy
Time RangeHeavier Weight
0–24hHRRR, RAP, obs
24–48hNAM, HRRR, HREF
48–72hNAM + globals
3–5 daysEuro, CMC, ensembles
5–7 daysEnsembles dominate
It’s NOAA/NWS’s official blended forecast system, designed to combine many models, ensembles, and observations into a single, statistically optimized forecast for sensible weather (temps, precip, wind, snow, etc.).
General weighting philosophy
Time RangeHeavier Weight
0–24hHRRR, RAP, obs
24–48hNAM, HRRR, HREF
48–72hNAM + globals
3–5 daysEuro, CMC, ensembles
5–7 daysEnsembles dominate
It’s NOAA/NWS’s official blended forecast system, designed to combine many models, ensembles, and observations into a single, statistically optimized forecast for sensible weather (temps, precip, wind, snow, etc.).
What goes into the NBM (Inputs)?
Global Models
- ECMWF (Euro)
- GFS
- CMC (GGEM)
- UKMET
- ICON (limited elements)
Ensembles
- EPS
- GEFS
- GEPS
- HREF (short range)
Regional / Mesoscale
- HRRR
- NAM / NAM-Nest
- RAP
- RGEM
Observations & Post-Processing
- Surface observations
- Climatology
- MOS-style bias correction
- Downscaling to fine grids (~2.5 km)
well since we are in within 72 hours, its okay to post clown maps...here is the 6z euro which has mixing with sleet and rain
this would be 10-1 ratios and that could be higher the first half of the storm. You see this model is spitting out lower totals than some other models in the 7-11 inch range
this would be 10-1 ratios and that could be higher the first half of the storm. You see this model is spitting out lower totals than some other models in the 7-11 inch range
over salting is the new norm. Can't have any left over for budget reasons I believe
So the 12z nam is out, its at the end of its range but its also picking up on the warm nose
here it is at 1 pm, at 4 pm and then at 7pm and you see the mixing moving up to central jersey....because its the end of range we do not get the last panel. Still even on the nam we get the thump of snow heavy during the late morning and afternoon. Remember this isnt a forecast but it does give an indication that the other models are indeed onto something with the warm air aloft. Verbatim its 6-10 inches with more mixed type precip to come.
here it is at 1 pm, at 4 pm and then at 7pm and you see the mixing moving up to central jersey....because its the end of range we do not get the last panel. Still even on the nam we get the thump of snow heavy during the late morning and afternoon. Remember this isnt a forecast but it does give an indication that the other models are indeed onto something with the warm air aloft. Verbatim its 6-10 inches with more mixed type precip to come.
yep this is true all over the country, municipalities are buying up all the salt and there is little left for private contractors who then have to absorb an inflated price when they do find salt. In the 70s and 80s there was never this much salt put out. Lol remember they used sand even. It started in the 90s but it was in the 2000s that things became ridiculous. People having it too good, add in an influx of inexperienced drivers not used to snow in this part of the country.
agree 100% and yes, I remember sand too! I prefer the sand actually
yep and some mid to upper 40s as I told you earlier in the week and Numbers was wrong again
back when i was a youth they used to spread sand all over the road, talk about messing up your sleigh riding!
This is wild !
Looks like Bac s model above makes most sense as of now.
7 inches or thereabouts seems feasible / reasonable for CNJ given the mixing which is hard to understand given temps are way below 32.
Guess it’s atmospheric differences etc.
I listed ranges as of this morning early on other thread for Monmouth which were :
Masco : 4-6
Zarriw : 6
TWC : 12-18
FWC : 18-24
Looks like sleet and rain will suppress snow totals
Looks like Bac s model above makes most sense as of now.
7 inches or thereabouts seems feasible / reasonable for CNJ given the mixing which is hard to understand given temps are way below 32.
Guess it’s atmospheric differences etc.
I listed ranges as of this morning early on other thread for Monmouth which were :
Masco : 4-6
Zarriw : 6
TWC : 12-18
FWC : 18-24
Looks like sleet and rain will suppress snow totals
Warm air aloft will cause sleet with surface temps below freezing. So it could be 26 and prolonged sleet
I’m thinking 8-12 is a good bet for central jersey. Even if it dies mix at the end - the initial dump of snow is major.
Could see 12+ in north Jersey and 6-10 in south Jersey.
This would be my first call.
Could see 12+ in north Jersey and 6-10 in south Jersey.
This would be my first call.
thats decent early...further runs may cut back on totals as these overruning events with warm noses tend to go to sleet earlier than models show.
I think we are going to have to break the state down into regions at this point and its too soon to do that. There is a high potential existing for everyone to get at least 6 inches with possibly more but that can be pared down with further runs....6-14 is certainly the range at this point...the higher end widespread region wide 12-18 looking less and less likely with each run
GFS is holding serve but again is sort of an outlier at this point and the one model that struggles the most with indentify the warm nose. Again it has a very long duration event into Monday evening
its a 10-18 event with the higher ratios given how cold it is
its a 10-18 event with the higher ratios given how cold it is
Actually, my adult kid did this in Wisconsin for a Mazda 3. It's apparently a thing out there, and the tire store places your "regular" tires in storage and changes them in the Spring. The tires mad a big difference on the Mazda 3.
Yup, they're available through Tire Rack, but the selection has shrunk. I used to get them studded for the crappy driving here in NJ.
Those tires would make a huge difference in the type of weather Wisconsin has.
Definitely still a thing If you have a performance car - I run high performance summer tires in the summer and switch to winter performance tires in the fall on my RS5. The summer tires lose traction once you get much below 40F - definitely would be dangerous in snow.