Zarrow has cut his totals in his morning update
For northern New Jersey, approximately along and north of Interstate 78, 10 to 15 inches of snow is expected. Double-digit snowfall is serious business. It will be dry, powdery snow, accumulating at a rate of 1-2" per hour during the height of the storm. It is not impossible that this area sees a bit of sleet at the tail end of the storm Sunday evening, but snow will still be the dominant precipitation type.
For southwestern and central New Jersey — most of the state — I now believe 7 to 10 inches of a good estimation of total snowfall. Squarely in the "major" winter storm category. It would be more, but the potential switch to sleet Sunday afternoon cuts things off.
Along the southern coast, not only will snow change to icy mix, but also a transition to rain is expected from late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening as surface temperatures rise into the mid 30s. I have to keep snow totals lower here, around 4 to 7 inches. That falls in the "moderate to heavy" snow category.
Could these snow totals go up again, if the forecast trends colder and snowier? Sure.
Could they go down further, if things keep drifting warmer and icier? Yes.
But this is the best call I can make using the data and information available at this time.
5.) Storm Timeline: Four Phases
Phase 1: First Flakes... Initial snowflakes could enter southwestern New Jersey as early as Saturday evening, but realistically light snow will hold off until early Sunday morning (after Midnight). It will take a little while for the very cold and dry air to moisten up enough for substantial snow to fall, but it will happen eventually. The ground will be cold enough for snow to stick and accumulate immediately, which could happen by daybreak. That means road conditions will start going downhill by mid-morning Sunday.
Phase 2: Moderate to Heavy Snow... Sunday morning through midday, bands of snow will fall and accumulate. Some models show pockets of 1-2" per hour snowfall is possible, which will lead to low visibility and fast accumulations
Phase 3: Transition to Icy Mix... As warmer air penetrates the middle layers of the atmosphere, snow will likely changeover to an icy mix of snow and mainly sleet through Sunday afternoon. First along the coast, then progressing across southwestern and central New Jersey. Coastal areas could even warm enough in the lower and middle portions of the atmosphere to flip over to plain rain.
Phase 4: Lingering Snow Showers... It looks like the storm will start to peter out and move away by Sunday evening. I think we should see improving conditions by 9 or 10 p.m. There will still be lingering snow showers through the overnight into Monday morning. And definitely lingering travel disruptions
Read More: 7 things to know about this weekend's wild wintry weather in NJ |
https://nj1015.com/nj-weather-cold-snow-ice-weekend/?utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral
