yeah I dont see any model maybe the gfs that even comes close to that amount there.
OT: Tracking Winter Storm Fern 1/25-26
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
RGEM shorter term models has mixing up into north jersey and central jersey by 4pm....verbatim is 6-10 region wide..also less qpf than other models
That's a little bit of a blanket statement. Kids in my town shovel and their parents even promote their services on the town FB page.
Canadian model has mixing up all the way through Somerset County by evening Sunday....8-11 inches region wide
I said above that the NWS says that in my area (Cherry Hill) there will be a changeover from snow to snow/freezing rain on Sunday afternoon. But they think there may be a shift back to snow about 4 a.m. that night. If this is right, we will have a little snow on top of freezing rain and then snow below it. I am surprised there is no mention of sleet.
yeah some models to have lingering precip or wrap round even later on Monday but its often hard to count on
i think mt holly is going to have to slice those totals for your area soon
Ukie is general 8-10 inches it has a weird dryslot near nyc where they only have 5-6
these percentages dont even match their forecast...if they are saying 14 for most of nj on their map yet the percentages of greater than 12 for many of these areas are 37% or less
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Just above 78 at the Union/Morris/Somerset County intersection.
Will have to play it by ear.
If I lived closer to you, I would stop by and help you shovel as we debate various Rutgers football topics. But sorry, too far, I'm down at the Monmouth/Ocean border.
Patterson moonlight as a meteorologist?
Whoops. There is a hidden message with the local weather-it will be a cold day at Rutgers before we hire a DC!
well you may stay all snow and get at least 10...the thing is in the afternoon its coming down at least an inch an hour so piling up alot quickly...stages recommended
i dont know but does seem like he is forecasting for our area
Mt holly not really budging...sliced a tiny bit...10-15 inches
NJZ008>010-012>015-020-026-PAZ060-103-105-106-241100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.260125T0600Z-260126T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T1800Z/
Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern
Monmouth-Mercer-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-Berks-Western Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of New Brunswick, Long Beach Island,
Perkasie, Reading, Trenton, Pottstown, Somerville, Sandy Hook,
Collegeville, Flemington, Freehold, Jackson, Morrisville,
Doylestown, Morristown, and Chalfont
1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow with mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations between 10 and 15 inches and ice accumulations
around one tenth of an inch.
* WHERE...Portions of New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.
* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Monday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
NJZ008>010-012>015-020-026-PAZ060-103-105-106-241100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.260125T0600Z-260126T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T1800Z/
Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern
Monmouth-Mercer-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-Berks-Western Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of New Brunswick, Long Beach Island,
Perkasie, Reading, Trenton, Pottstown, Somerville, Sandy Hook,
Collegeville, Flemington, Freehold, Jackson, Morrisville,
Doylestown, Morristown, and Chalfont
1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow with mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations between 10 and 15 inches and ice accumulations
around one tenth of an inch.
* WHERE...Portions of New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.
* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Monday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
did cut for philly and so jersey but to be honest this should extend up to south of 78, middlesex monmouth
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T1800Z/
New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Southeastern
Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of West Chester, Glassboro, Cherry Hill,
Media, Camden, Philadelphia, Norristown, Dover, Millville,
Centreville, Lansdale, Wilmington, Easton, Moorestown, Denton,
Wharton State Forest, Pennsville, Chestertown, Honey Brook,
Kennett Square, Oxford, and Mount Holly
1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations between 8 and 12 inches and ice accumulations around
three tenths of an inch.
* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, northeast
Maryland, southern New Jersey, and southeast Pennsylvania.
* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Monday.
* IMPACTS...Significant ice accumulation on power lines and tree
limbs may cause widespread and long-lasting power outages. Power
outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be
nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the
Monday morning commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
&&
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T1800Z/
New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Southeastern
Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of West Chester, Glassboro, Cherry Hill,
Media, Camden, Philadelphia, Norristown, Dover, Millville,
Centreville, Lansdale, Wilmington, Easton, Moorestown, Denton,
Wharton State Forest, Pennsville, Chestertown, Honey Brook,
Kennett Square, Oxford, and Mount Holly
1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations between 8 and 12 inches and ice accumulations around
three tenths of an inch.
* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, northeast
Maryland, southern New Jersey, and southeast Pennsylvania.
* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Monday.
* IMPACTS...Significant ice accumulation on power lines and tree
limbs may cause widespread and long-lasting power outages. Power
outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be
nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the
Monday morning commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
&&
still a bit high here
Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal
Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-
Including the cities of Rehoboth Beach, Ocean City, Atlantic
City, Cape May Court House, Hammonton, and Georgetown
1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow with mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations between 6 and 10 inches and ice accumulations around
one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...Portions of southern Delaware and southern New Jersey.
* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
could impact the Monday morning commute.
Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal
Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-
Including the cities of Rehoboth Beach, Ocean City, Atlantic
City, Cape May Court House, Hammonton, and Georgetown
1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow with mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations between 6 and 10 inches and ice accumulations around
one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...Portions of southern Delaware and southern New Jersey.
* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
could impact the Monday morning commute.
I don't care about the snow, but that ice really worries me.
Thanks! Here's the link for others who may be interested. Ice forecasts can be found at the same site.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/WINTER
Ill give my 2nd call tonight but i am favoring 7-11 IMBY to cover under and overperforming. I really like the idea of 8 or 9.
Mt Holly still going with higher totals because of high ratios and dont believe in the sleet
Important runs thus afternoon tonight and tomorrow morning and afternoon to hone in on details
Mt Holly still going with higher totals because of high ratios and dont believe in the sleet
Important runs thus afternoon tonight and tomorrow morning and afternoon to hone in on details
Nam coming in warm..cuts central jersey to 4-6 inches vebatim
mixes by 4pm and 1/3 of storm is sleet
mixes by 4pm and 1/3 of storm is sleet
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Just saw that. Oof, weenie suicide on AmericanWx. Will be interesting if other model runs show this too. I was thinking this would happen all along.
It has been trending this way since Wednesday I believe. Like always way to much hype so early on
uglie 18z suite thus far with icon showing a good amount of sleet and rgem mixing up through central jersey as well. Its not that we do not thump snow, its that the 2nd half of the storm wont
a higher resolution model...it can be good with short term placement of say thundertorms, etc.
Seems like all the model runs they don't like they discredit on AmericanWx.
Weather channel app just cut my area back from 8-12 to 5-8. Apple phone app showing 3-4”. Bust incoming