Over the next few weeks, keep your eyes on the Middle East

PawsFan

Heisman
Dec 17, 2019
14,778
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at least use legit sites if you are going to post info. This is a known troll account that uses AI generated content. I'd fact check some of the things you just throw into this thread. Lots of incorrect information on X...don't believe everything you read. They have a ton of fake accounts all over that just post stuff to get people worked up. Been doing it since at least the Ukraine stuff started. Just google them...you'll see that they spread misinformation and have changed their name multiple times...

And they do fundraisers and I bet people actually give to them

But it supports his indoctrinated narrative.
 

Dungeon09

Heisman
Dec 1, 2021
6,908
24,645
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LOL. YOu must be young.

I’m flattered that you think “doesn’t personally remember the 1973 embargo” qualifies me as young, but the post isn’t wrong. The 1973 embargo amounted to a supply reduction of 4 MBD which was about 65% of total US imports at the time. 20 MBD currently pass through the strait which is nearly equivalent to the entire daily US consumption of petroleum and 250% of the ~8.5mbd gross petroleum import.
 

Dungeon09

Heisman
Dec 1, 2021
6,908
24,645
113
We were briefing that over the weekend. Threats are being assessed and addressed at the installation level. Some bases have instituted stricter protocols than others. At least, that is how it was explained to us and that is how we are messaging.
Government non-defense nuclear facilities have gotten increased security advisories as well.
 

MisterWorst

All-Conference
Jun 6, 2023
768
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I’m flattered that you think “doesn’t personally remember the 1973 embargo” qualifies me as young, but the post isn’t wrong. The 1973 embargo amounted to a supply reduction of 4 MBD which was about 65% of total US imports at the time. 20 MBD currently pass through the strait which is nearly equivalent to the entire daily US consumption of petroleum and 250% of the ~8.5mbd gross petroleum import.
But it doesn't effect me as much this time so it's obviously not as bad. /s
 
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PawsFan

Heisman
Dec 17, 2019
14,778
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I’m flattered that you think “doesn’t personally remember the 1973 embargo” qualifies me as young, but the post isn’t wrong. The 1973 embargo amounted to a supply reduction of 4 MBD which was about 65% of total US imports at the time. 20 MBD currently pass through the strait which is nearly equivalent to the entire daily US consumption of petroleum and 250% of the ~8.5mbd gross petroleum import.
Let me when the price per barrel quadrupels.
 

tboonpickens

Heisman
Sep 19, 2001
19,823
34,986
113
But it supports his indoctrinated narrative.

Ashli Babbitt says hi.
:LOL: Right there with you. So 100 children have been hanging around SA sites, BMOA's, military airfields, naval ports, CDCM launch sites, mine storage facilities etc etc etc. Sure.

Of those "Civilians" killed how many were nuke, scientist or contactors working on military bases?

These are soccer mom's being killed.
 

cyclotiger

Heisman
Feb 17, 2014
6,722
13,678
113
Funny. This word hasn't gotten to the active duty military.
Don't shoot the messenger
I'm just sharing info from a credible source
We were briefing that over the weekend. Threats are being assessed and addressed at the installation level. Some bases have instituted stricter protocols than others. At least, that is how it was explained to us and that is how we are messaging.
Yep
 

CUT93

Heisman
Jan 8, 2006
5,851
10,566
113
The national average is currently $1.20/gal higher than when Obama left office.
That is true- unless you you adjust for inflation. Even unadjusted, gas prices were higher much of the time from 2011-2014 and MUCH higher for a lot of that three year span if adjusted for inflation. I'm willing to bet, it doesn't take three years before it gets backs below those levels- even unadjusted for inflation. Adjusted for inflation, we are still roughly $2/gal lower than the high under obama.

I remember when gas was nearing $3/gal under bush. Every day for months, maybe even a year, cnn had a constant graphic in the back ground 24/7 no matter the topic of discussion and lead every show highlighting the average. Yet when when it when it was 30%+ higher and reaching $4/gal under obama, they somehow did not think it as newsworthy.
 
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GDead_Tiger

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Dec 7, 2021
13,060
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Reports that Turkey, India, France, and Italy are being allowed to have tankers pass through the straits because they’re using Iranian ports
 
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MisterWorst

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Jun 6, 2023
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That is true- unless you you adjust for inflation. Even unadjusted, gas prices were higher much of the time from 2011-2014 and MUCH higher for a lot of that three year span if adjusted for inflation. I'm willing to bet, it doesn't take three years before it gets backs below those levels- even unadjusted for inflation. Adjusted for inflation, we are still roughly $2/gal lower than the high under obama.

I remember when gas was nearing $3/gal under bush. Every day for months, maybe even a year, cnn had a constant graphic in the back ground 24/7 no matter the topic of discussion and lead every show highlighting the average. Yet when when it when it was 30%+ higher and reaching $4/gal under obama, they somehow did not think it as newsworthy.
I can't find anything that shows data much past 2024 or so, but the surprising thing to me is that once you adjust to current dollars the price of gas since the early 90s has stayed pretty consistently around 3.20.

The US is now a net exporter of oil but I'm personally less worried about what I pay at the pump (though obviously I'd like it to be as low as possible) and more worried about how rising oil prices effect petroleum-based industries like fertilizers and plastics. Couple that with the increased transportation costs and it'll have a disproportionate effect on food costs longer term. A lot of ME countries have shut down wells since they've now filled their storage to capacity and it'll take a few months to get the oil fields back on line. Likewise I'm not sure how quickly the tar sands and shale gas fields can ramp up production but that's likely a few months as well. So even if the war stopped today and the straight of Hormuz went back to 100% of it's traffic before the war, we're looking at a shorterm increase in prices overall being all but certain.
 

CUT93

Heisman
Jan 8, 2006
5,851
10,566
113
I can't find anything that shows data much past 2024 or so, but the surprising thing to me is that once you adjust to current dollars the price of gas since the early 90s has stayed pretty consistently around 3.20.

The US is now a net exporter of oil but I'm personally less worried about what I pay at the pump (though obviously I'd like it to be as low as possible) and more worried about how rising oil prices effect petroleum-based industries like fertilizers and plastics. Couple that with the increased transportation costs and it'll have a disproportionate effect on food costs longer term. A lot of ME countries have shut down wells since they've now filled their storage to capacity and it'll take a few months to get the oil fields back on line. Likewise I'm not sure how quickly the tar sands and shale gas fields can ramp up production but that's likely a few months as well. So even if the war stopped today and the straight of Hormuz went back to 100% of it's traffic before the war, we're looking at a shorterm increase in prices overall being all but certain.

Link is up to date FYI- not adjusted for inflation, though. The planned refinery in TX is 3-4 yrs from being operational. Once it is though, domestic oil prices should be significantly lower and should also help globally. We have the crude, just not the capacity to refine it. The vast majority of our refineries are set up to refine much heavier crude that we have had historically.

Some short term pain headed our way for sure.
 

P. Marlowe

Heisman
Dec 7, 2009
13,992
25,719
101
Starting to see a massive rift developing between Artesh and the IRGC for various reasons - prioritizing missile component procurement over necessary supplies (food and medicine) and unwillingness to help with medical evacs and treatment of Artesh members. That is leading to widespread desertions. IRGC has called on reserve units and few are answering the call. Also finding a lot of senior IRGC personnel cell phones and no corresponding bodies in buildings destroyed by air strikes. IOW, a weak effort at obfuscation while they desert/attempt to get their families out of the country. **** is not going well on the ground.

In the last 24-48 hours, you’ve had multiple diplomatic defections. Two have been widely reported. One of them was deputy FM under Ahmedinejad. There are more.
 

Tiger Guru

Heisman
Nov 27, 2007
13,100
19,561
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Left or Right never take over threads.
Either the truth or obnoxious fabrication aholes do.

Plenty of the “left” have vacated threads because they are wrong. It just happens to be the “right” turn.

Here’s a concept. See the world as it is and all the left and right talking points can piss off and die.
Truth hurts and people can’t take it. I’ll never try to defend against something that’s truthful just because I don’t like it.

This thread has been great and I’m enjoying it but it is odd how many people’s first thought is “yeah but”.

Thanks for those updating ITT with great info, regardless if I like how it sounds or not.
 
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CUT93

Heisman
Jan 8, 2006
5,851
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Starting to see a massive rift developing between Artesh and the IRGC for various reasons - prioritizing missile component procurement over necessary supplies (food and medicine) and unwillingness to help with medical evacs and treatment of Artesh members. That is leading to widespread desertions. IRGC has called on reserve units and few are answering the call. Also finding a lot of senior IRGC personnel cell phones and no corresponding bodies in buildings destroyed by air strikes. IOW, a weak effort at obfuscation while they desert/attempt to get their families out of the country. **** is not going well on the ground.

In the last 24-48 hours, you’ve had multiple diplomatic defections. Two have been widely reported. One of them was deputy FM under Ahmedinejad. There are more.

This article details exactly what you are saying. Freely admit I have zero reliability info on this source, though.
 

BigPapaWhit

All-American
Jun 15, 2014
3,286
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Starting to see a massive rift developing between Artesh and the IRGC for various reasons - prioritizing missile component procurement over necessary supplies (food and medicine) and unwillingness to help with medical evacs and treatment of Artesh members. That is leading to widespread desertions. IRGC has called on reserve units and few are answering the call. Also finding a lot of senior IRGC personnel cell phones and no corresponding bodies in buildings destroyed by air strikes. IOW, a weak effort at obfuscation while they desert/attempt to get their families out of the country. **** is not going well on the ground.

In the last 24-48 hours, you’ve had multiple diplomatic defections. Two have been widely reported. One of them was deputy FM under Ahmedinejad. There are more.
What or who is providing ground intel? Do we have actors on the ground? Or is the US relying on “local” assets? Israeli intel?

Not doubting the information just curious on how it is been collected, for example cell phones but no bodies.
 

P. Marlowe

Heisman
Dec 7, 2009
13,992
25,719
101
What or who is providing ground intel? Do we have actors on the ground? Or is the US relying on “local” assets? Israeli intel?

Not doubting the information just curious on how it is been collected, for example cell phones but no bodies.

Yes. The US, the UK, Russia, Jordan, France, Egypt, Israel - among others - all have people on the ground. Yes. Those people on the ground have local contacts and actual assets they’re actively running. And some of those people on the ground are assets being run by other people on the ground.
 

SDTiger9

Heisman
Jan 26, 2005
35,166
80,217
98
Truth hurts and people can’t take it. I’ll never try to defend against something that’s truthful just because I don’t like it.

This thread has been great and I’m enjoying it but it is odd how many people’s first thought is “yeah but”.

Thanks for those updating ITT with great info, regardless if I like how it sounds or not.
I appreciate it, I really do. It’s the only way to actually execute and deliver a liberal democracy. Blue and Red people simply aren’t interested.

We have gone to the plate so many times and neither is capable. Why? They can’t execute or the lie incessantly. The only reason anyone would be a part of it is for selfish gain or false beliefs.

See you in the next life Special Agent Utah!!!
 
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