Realistic Chance to Dance

[NYShoreGuy]

Resume is worse than a few years back when snubbed but bubble a bit different.

Best win NC State, likely 5 games vs Uconn and St John's

11-9 and a conf tournament semifinal appearance leaves them on outside looking in.

I think key for a league like Big East going forward is how fairly on metrics and performance is WCC, Mountain West, A10 treated with at large consideration because those are the comps to the conference at this stage. Next year new Pac 12 will replace WCC.

On a neutral court how often would New Mexico, San Diego State, George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth, Saint Mary's and Santa Clara beat the 7th to 11th best teams in ACC, Big 12, SEC and Big Ten.

Those 4 leagues are looking at 28-30 of the at large bids.

 

[shu67]

Close to zero. They have to win out the rest of the regular season to.

 

[HALL85]

Circle the SJU game as THE must win. Winning at UConn will be next to impossible.

Hopefully team gets access to the Rock before next two games at home.

 

[JoePeppitone2012]

Maybe 4-1 and one BET win?

 

[Piratz]

12-8 BE + avoiding a BET nightmare. Avoid losing to the 3 bad teams. Get 1 of the big ones. 10-seed or play-in.

 

[Hall84]

12-8 BE + avoiding a BET nightmare. Avoid losing to the 3 bad teams. Get 1 of the big ones. 10-seed or play-in.

Agree 100%. That would make us 22-9 with a win over either Uconn or the Johnnies.
Also root hard for Butler and Provy who are just outside Q1 road wins.

 

[Halldan]

30-35% chance

Must go 4-1, which means they have to beat UConn or SJU.

Then possibly need one conference tournament victory.

 

[joeyklings]

Looking at the schedule.

We have a bye before Uconn on Saturday. They play St John’s on Wed night. Could be a Letdown spot for them. Would still need to play our A game.

 

[Halldan]

 

[PROF Ed]

Again we are not in a bubble being on the bubble. Teams in other power conferences also on the bubble are in play as well, what they do also affects our status.

 

[Seton75]

If you care and are able, show up and cheer.

We need to win, and we need bid stealers to stay home this year.

Lots of talk here about the league being 3 good teams and 8 mutts, but I predict a wild, upset-driven BET, with at least one surprise team in the finals.

 

[HallGuy2323]

Maybe 4-1 and one BET win?

Nope

 

[Piratz]

Yeah, it’s all relative. The consensus today has us either First 4 out or Next 4. So a lot can happen over 3 weeks.

Then you also have to watch the bid stealers. In 2024 the 5 of those knocked us from firmly in to 2nd-out. Brutal.

At 22-9, 12-8 with a top tier Q1 W (SJU/UConn), solid tier Q1 W (NC State) and maybe you get a couple others sneaking back in it will feel solid. I’d want to avoid another 1st Round BET loss Thursday afternoon to a team below us too. Keep the line moving.

 

[Hall Berry]

FWIW, and since the committee cares so do I, the metrics say Seton Hall is currently a Top-50 team. {NET: #50; Kenpom: #48; Bart Torvik: #50; BPI: #52}. Winning 4 of your last 5 regular season games should easily move the Hall into the 40's. By comparison, in 2023-24, SHU metrics were in the 60's (too many blowout losses).

What the 2023-24 team had, that this team does not, however, are marquee wins. Remember, we had beaten UConn (#1) and Marquette (#12) at home, as well as earned a regular season sweep of St. John's.

As Piratz said, probably the best we can hope for now with a 4-1 finish, is one top tier win (SJU/UConn) and one solid tier win (NC State).

This will keep us in the conversation when the conference tournaments start.

And Hall84 makes a good point. If Butler (NET #79) and Providence (NET #80) can climb into the Top 75, it moves our games against them from Quad 3 Home/Quad 2 Away to Quad 2 Home/Quad 1 Away. That would be the "easiest" way to pick up two Quad 1 wins.

 

[Seton75]

I wish quad wins were determined/fixed by the numbers when the game was played. Helping or hurting chances cause a team has changed since you played them is kinda dopey.

 

[SPK145]

NET is not used to select teams for The Dance.

 

[dehere23]

If you care and are able, show up and cheer.

We need to win, and we need bid stealers to stay home this year.

Lots of talk here about the league being 3 good teams and 8 mutts, but I predict a wild, upset-driven BET, with at least one surprise team in the finals.

I agree with you the BET has the potential to be crazy this year, but I also have a feeling it is going to be UCONN’s revenge tour after last year and some of their recent Ls in that building.

 

[Halldan]

NET is not used to select teams for The Dance.

It's used to aid in seeding.

But just as Kenpom has a psychological affect so does the NET.

 

[Seton75]

It's used to aid in seeding.

But just as Kenpom has a psychological affect so does the NET.

Selectors think what they want to think and are influenced by whatever influences them.

 

[SPK145]

Selectors think what they want to think and are influenced by whatever influences them.

This. It's a lot more subjective than objective.

 

[NYC Pirate]

Have to beat DePaul and Gtown.
A week to prepare for @UCONN. This is the game that would probably land SHU in to The Dance. Not impossible, but not likely.
@Xavier is the tricky one. Winnable yes, but could be the typical Hall Road Game. Playing the Powerful Huskies could be a good Prep for this one. Xavier plays so loose. 50/50.

SJU at home will be the game that puts SHU back onto The Bubble with a win. At least a fighting chance. I believe SHU will win this game convincingly if healthy.

So, I would venture to guess 3-2 in some fashion before a return match with Creighton at MSG. Maybe one last chance to beat UConn?

 

[PhishingPirate088]

Maybe 4-1 and one BET win?

There is massive amount of evidence over the years that despite what anyone says the committees put almost zero stock into conference tourneys

 

[Halldan]

At times some have said that. But maybe more so on the Sunday game results,

 

[NCAAsorBust]

Selectors think what they want to think and are influenced by whatever influences them.

This. It's a lot more subjective than objective.

What they do is subjective, however they use anything they can to justify their subjective process.

 

[joeyklings]

4-1 and think it’s a very good chance we dance

 

[STLPirate12]

Realistically, I think 4-1 gives us a chance - makes it worth watching the selection show. I think we need to finish 5-0 to really feel good about our chances though. I don't think the conference tournament is impactful outside of winning the auto bid. It gets minimal consideration at best.

 

[NYC Pirate]

Not sure the only chance is to win all 5 including @ UConn. There could be others paths. We can't be unhappy if we go 5-0. Lol.

 

[NCAAsorBust]

Realistically, I think 4-1 gives us a chance - makes it worth watching the selection show. I think we need to finish 5-0 to really feel good about our chances though. I don't think the conference tournament is impactful outside of winning the auto bid. It gets minimal consideration at best.

Neutral site win over Creighton won't do much. If we add an extra win against UConn or SJU at MSG that would be a big boost.

 

[SPK145]

Have to beat DePaul and Gtown.
A week to prepare for @UCONN. This is the game that would probably land SHU in to The Dance. Not impossible, but not likely.
@Xavier is the tricky one. Winnable yes, but could be the typical Hall Road Game. Playing the Powerful Huskies could be a good Prep for this one. Xavier plays so loose. 50/50.

SJU at home will be the game that puts SHU back onto The Bubble with a win. At least a fighting chance. I believe SHU will win this game convincingly if healthy.

So, I would venture to guess 3-2 in some fashion before a return match with Creighton at MSG. Maybe one last chance to beat UConn?

3-2 before the BET will not do it.

 

[Seton75]

What they do is subjective, however they use anything they can to justify their subjective process.

Even twisted info, ie our uconn win 2 yrs ago

We are a longshot with a chance, after our landslide win in the preseason battle for the BE cellar

 

[NYShoreGuy]

Even twisted info, ie our uconn win 2 yrs ago

We are a longshot with a chance, after our landslide win in the preseason battle for the BE cellar

Creighton and DePaul were just devastating results

 

[dehere23]

Creighton and DePaul were just devastating results

Looking at this now, definitely, but can’t be too upset because there are like 4-5 that easily go the other way. Including the Creighton miracle at home which offsets the road game.

 

[NYC Pirate]

3-2 before the BET will not do it.

I agree. I want it to be 4-1 but it won't be easy. 3-2 is the way it may shake out. Unless they beat Uconn even 4-1 may not be enough. So then there is MSG. Still nay not be enough.

DePaul, Gtown, Xavier, SJU, Creighton.
Give UConn a game at MSG
Pray on Selection Sunday.

 

[radecicco]

It’s a long shot no matter what we do. And the only thing we can do is just keep winning. I’ll say it again, it’s been an unexpectedly fun season considering we were picked last and not one of our portal pickups was top 250.

 

[JTSHU]

They always change their criteria to justify their decisions. Plus whe. They ssid they dont really take conf tournaments into account is insane to me

 

[JTSHU]

Gotta get the 3 teams below us no question and try to pick off st johns and or uconn. They arent unbeatable but we cant play like we did against butler

 

[VegasPJ1]

Chances are Slim and None and unfortunately Slim has left the building.

 

[SPK145]

Creighton and DePaul were just devastating results

As was Butler at home.

 

[TheHall87]

A win over UConn demonstrably changes the equation. How many teams sitting squarely on the bubble have a non-home win over a top 10 NET team?

I'm not saying it will happen but it gives a big boost to the ultimate meh resume.

Better still if I can win one game against each UConn and SJU, it's at MSG to earn the auto bid.

 

[Buc Bloc]

4-1, a win in the 4-5 game and good effort v either SJ or Uconn in semis.

23-10 cant be easily tossed aside.

when was last time we played on Thursday at noon at BET? It will be a good feeling to (hopefully) not be playing at 10pm.