Joel Klatt emphasizes pressure on Lincoln Riley, evaluates chances USC makes CFP

With playoff expectations upon his arrival, USC has yet to experience that under Lincoln Riley as they’ve actually gotten worse record-wise in each of his three seasons in Los Angeles. However, Joel Klatt thinks this could be the year for the Trojans to make their debut in the CFP.

Klatt named USC at No. 7 of the Top-10 teams most likely to make their first-ever playoff appearance on his show on Monday. They may not end up actually doing it this season like they haven’t in his first three but, to him, Klatt thinks Riley needs to at least have the Trojans in contention for an at-large spot this fall.

“They started last season with a win over LSU, and I thought that that was going to propel them to a potential playoff season last year. In Lincoln Riley’s first year, they were a game away from going to the playoff. So, I personally believe that Riley has maybe come under some criticism that might not be fair,” noted Klatt. “But, I could be wrong. I could be wrong because he’s going to have to win this year. You can’t go 7-5 again. You just can’t.”

USC is 26-14 (.650) under Riley since 2022. That record has had fewer wins on it during each season of his tenure, though, leading to last year when they finished at 7-6 (4-5) during their debut in the Big Ten, including a 1-5 start in conference play from September into October. Still, the Trojans showed signs with wins over No. 13 LSU, Wisconsin, and Texas A&M in the Holiday Bowl while five of the six losses came by a possession or less like at No. 18 Michigan, in overtime to No. 4 Penn State, and a competitive enough effort against No. 5 Notre Dame.

With that, Klatt, ironically, thinks that USC will need to improve on offense after the unit was the worst of Riley’s career at 30.2 points, his first scoring offense to not be Top-10 as it was No. 51 nationally, with 437.2 yards per game. That’s with the Trojans actually having one of Riley’s better defenses in his career at 24.1 points and 377.1 yards allowed on average.

“The offense wasn’t quite a normal Lincoln Riley offense. I still think that they need to get back to running the football like they were able to do in his first year at USC and like he was able to do for the majority of his time at OU, which means that the O-line needs to play well. That’s still a question. I don’t know exactly how that’s going to go. Wide receiver? They lost a lot of wide receivers due to the portal. Two really good ones (back), Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane. I want to see them get back to running the football and I want to see them get back to spreading the football out on the outside. I thought that that was a real marquee of what Lincoln Riley was at Oklahoma,” said Klatt. “You’ve got Jayden Maiava back. He started the last four. He led the comeback against A&M. Now he’s had an entire offseason as the starter. Turnovers killed them at the quarterback position. If you limit turnovers then you’re going to be in it. You’re going to have a chance to win nine or ten games.

“Good news, though. Year one with D’Anton Lynn went really well. There was a real improvement on the defensive side of the ball. They brought in Rob Ryan as an assistant this offseason. Defensive line is actually looking like a strength now, which hasn’t been the case for them in the past.”

That said, record is going to decide whether USC is in or out of playoff consideration, especially since they’re more likely to be in an at-large berth rather than necessarily as the team having won the Big Ten Championship. That led Klatt to highlight a four-game stretch, which comes the same span that cost them last season from September through November 1st, that could make the difference for them. Three of those four are on the road, including the first against the No. 1 team for Klatt on this same list in Champaign.

“I think that the key game is USC-Illinois, September 27th. That’s huge. Both teams could be undefeated going into that one. If they were able to get that one, now you’ve got something because then you’ve got basically Michigan, Notre Dame, and Iowa. You’ve got Nebraska on the road depending on how Nebraska was able to do,” said Klatt. “So, let’s say you can get through that stretch going, like, 3-1…Can they do that? Maybe. Maybe? And now you’re in it, you know. They’ve got tough games against Oregon on the road – don’t think they’re going to win that one. So now you’re just talking about, like, can you steal a victory here or there?”

To this point, USC has not met what many thought they could be under Riley after he earned three appearances in a half-decade spent at OU. Still, with an improvement here and there this upcoming season, the Trojans might finally fight their way into their first spot in the College Football Playoff.

“Again, those close losses could turn into close wins this year and, if they do, they could be a team making their very first playoff appearance,” Klatt said.