
<p>The conference slate has brought weekly upsets and daily changes to the Bracketology picture. These early results have led to big changes across the board, which keep shaping the field and establishing the resumes of many contenders.</p>



<p>The NCAA uses the <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings">NET Rankings</a> – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket. </p>



<p>As the conference schedule dominates headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from <a href="https://www.on3.com/">On3</a>.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-bracketology">Bracketology</h2>



<p><strong>Projected 1-line:</strong> Michigan, Arizona, Duke, UConn<br><strong>Last four byes:</strong> Seton Hall, Indiana, USC, UCLA<br><strong>Last four in:</strong> Texas A&M, Ohio State, New Mexico, Baylor<br><strong>First four out:</strong> Texas, SDSU, Missouri, Virginia Tech</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">First Four (Dayton)</h2>



<p>16 Grambling (SWAC) vs. 16 Howard (MEAC)<br>16 Vermont (AEC) vs. 16 Navy (Patriot)<br>11 Texas A&M vs. 11 Baylor<br>11 Ohio State vs. 11 New Mexico</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-midwest-chicago">Midwest (Chicago)</h2>



<p><strong>St. Louis</strong><br>1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 Grambling/Howard<br>8 SMU vs. 9 Kentucky<br><strong>San Diego</strong><br>5 Tennessee vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)<br>4 Kansas vs. 13 Hawaii (Big West)<br><strong>Philadelphia</strong><br>6 Villanova vs. 11 Miami (OH)<br>3 Illinois vs. 14 High Point (Big South)<br><strong>Oklahoma City</strong><br>7 St. John’s vs. 10 Auburn<br>2 Houston vs. 15 ETSU (SoCon)</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-1-seed-michigan">1-seed Michigan</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="538" src="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/23090607/Dusty-May-Michigan-5-1024x538.jpg" alt="Dusty May, Michigan" class="wp-image-3201579" srcset="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/23090607/Dusty-May-Michigan-5-1024x538.jpg 1024w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/23090607/Dusty-May-Michigan-5-300x158.jpg 300w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/23090607/Dusty-May-Michigan-5-768x403.jpg 768w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/23090607/Dusty-May-Michigan-5-50x26.jpg 50w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/23090607/Dusty-May-Michigan-5.jpg 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Dusty May, Michigan  – © Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images</figcaption></figure>



<p>Michigan has established itself as the No. 1 overall seed in Bracketology and proved how wide the non-conference gap it built up was after suffering a loss. The Wolverines remain in this spot for now, but are now very close to Arizona across the board.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-2-seed-houston">2-seed Houston</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="538" src="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/29134459/USATSI_25796891-1-1024x538.jpeg" alt="Kelvin Sampson, Houston Basketball | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images" class="wp-image-3219248" srcset="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/29134459/USATSI_25796891-1-1024x538.jpeg 1024w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/29134459/USATSI_25796891-1-300x158.jpeg 300w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/29134459/USATSI_25796891-1-768x403.jpeg 768w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/29134459/USATSI_25796891-1-1536x806.jpeg 1536w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/29134459/USATSI_25796891-1-2048x1075.jpeg 2048w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/03/29134459/USATSI_25796891-1-50x26.jpeg 50w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">(Robert Goddin-Imagn Images) Mar 28, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson in the first half during a Midwest Regional semifinal of the 2025 NCAA tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium.</figcaption></figure>



<p>Houston returns to the 2-seed line after seeing multiple teams above it fall. The Cougars have continued to strengthen their resume with a string of wins, also keeping them firmly in the race with the rest of the top Big 12 contenders to compete for a conference title.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-south-houston">South (Houston)</h2>



<p><strong>Buffalo</strong><br>1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 LIU (NEC)<br>8 Iowa vs. 9 NC State<br><strong>Tampa</strong><br>5 Florida vs. 12 Belmont (MVC)<br>4 Michigan State vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)<br><strong>Portland</strong><br>6 Utah State (MVC) vs. 11 UCLA<br>3 BYU vs. 14 St. Thomas (Summit)<br><strong>Oklahoma City</strong><br>7 Miami vs. 10 Georgia<br>2 Iowa State vs. 15 Lipscomb (ASUN)</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-1-seed-uconn">1-seed UConn</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="538" src="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/11/03225647/USATSI_27497498-scaled-e1762232255935-1024x538.jpg" alt="UConn HC Dan Hurley during New Haven game 2025" class="wp-image-3897864" srcset="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/11/03225647/USATSI_27497498-scaled-e1762232255935-1024x538.jpg 1024w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/11/03225647/USATSI_27497498-scaled-e1762232255935-300x158.jpg 300w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/11/03225647/USATSI_27497498-scaled-e1762232255935-768x404.jpg 768w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/11/03225647/USATSI_27497498-scaled-e1762232255935-1536x808.jpg 1536w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/11/03225647/USATSI_27497498-scaled-e1762232255935-2048x1077.jpg 2048w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/11/03225647/USATSI_27497498-scaled-e1762232255935-50x26.jpg 50w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Nov 3, 2025; Storrs, Connecticut, USA; UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley watches from the sideline as they take on the New Haven Chargers at Harry A. Gampel Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images</figcaption></figure>



<p>UConn has established itself with one of the best resumes in college basketball to this point, continuing to shift up the board with each update. The Huskies remain on the 1-seed line behind the strength of their results, with plenty of teams looking to jump them.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-2-seed-iowa-state">2-seed Iowa State</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="538" src="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/07/24130605/USATSI_25751278-1024x538.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-3470422" srcset="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/07/24130605/USATSI_25751278-1024x538.jpg 1024w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/07/24130605/USATSI_25751278-300x158.jpg 300w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/07/24130605/USATSI_25751278-768x403.jpg 768w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/07/24130605/USATSI_25751278-50x26.jpg 50w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/07/24130605/USATSI_25751278.jpg 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Mar 23, 2025; Milwaukee, WI, USA;  Iowa State Cyclones head coach T.J. Otzelberger reacts during the first half in the second round of the NCAA Tournament against the Mississippi Rebels at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images</figcaption></figure>



<p>Iowa State once again carries great weight in the analytic models for bracketology this season, using early results to keep them in the mix for a top seed. The Cyclones remain very close to the 1-seed line despite a place on the 2-seed line.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-west-san-jose">West (San Jose)</h2>



<p><strong>San Diego</strong><br>1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 UT Martin (OVC)<br>8 St. Louis (A10) vs. 9 Indiana<br><strong>Buffalo</strong><br>5 Arkansas vs. 12 South Florida (American)<br>4 Virginia vs. 13 Yale (Ivy)<br><strong>Greenville</strong><br>6 Louisville vs. 11 Ohio State/New Mexico<br>3 Vanderbilt (SEC) vs. 14 Troy (SBC)<br><strong>Portland</strong><br>7 North Carolina vs. 10 USC<br>2 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 15 Portland State (Big Sky)</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-1-seed-arizona">1-seed Arizona</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="538" src="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2023/12/25122054/tommy-lloyd-arizona-1024x538.jpg" alt="Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd" class="wp-image-2117267" srcset="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2023/12/25122054/tommy-lloyd-arizona-1024x538.jpg 1024w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2023/12/25122054/tommy-lloyd-arizona-300x158.jpg 300w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2023/12/25122054/tommy-lloyd-arizona-768x403.jpg 768w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2023/12/25122054/tommy-lloyd-arizona.jpg 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">© Rob Kinnan | USA TODAY Sports</figcaption></figure>



<p>Arizona continues to sit on the 1-seed line as one of the last undefeated teams remaining in college basketball. The strong non-conference resume for the Wildcats has set up a Big 12 run, where they look to dethrone Michigan as the No. 1 overall seed.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-2-seed-gonzaga">2-seed Gonzaga</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="538" src="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/12/07113034/Nov-4-2024-Spokane-Washington-USA-Gonzaga-Bulldogs-head-coach-Mark-Few-selects-players-to-send-in-against-the-Baylor-Bears-in-the-second-half-at-Spokane-Arena.-Mandatory-Credit-James-Snook-Imagn-Images-1024x538.jpg" alt="Nov 4, 2024; Spokane, Washington, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few selects players to send in against the Baylor Bears in the second half at Spokane Arena. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-Imagn Images" class="wp-image-2950037" srcset="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/12/07113034/Nov-4-2024-Spokane-Washington-USA-Gonzaga-Bulldogs-head-coach-Mark-Few-selects-players-to-send-in-against-the-Baylor-Bears-in-the-second-half-at-Spokane-Arena.-Mandatory-Credit-James-Snook-Imagn-Images-1024x538.jpg 1024w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/12/07113034/Nov-4-2024-Spokane-Washington-USA-Gonzaga-Bulldogs-head-coach-Mark-Few-selects-players-to-send-in-against-the-Baylor-Bears-in-the-second-half-at-Spokane-Arena.-Mandatory-Credit-James-Snook-Imagn-Images-300x158.jpg 300w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/12/07113034/Nov-4-2024-Spokane-Washington-USA-Gonzaga-Bulldogs-head-coach-Mark-Few-selects-players-to-send-in-against-the-Baylor-Bears-in-the-second-half-at-Spokane-Arena.-Mandatory-Credit-James-Snook-Imagn-Images-768x403.jpg 768w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/12/07113034/Nov-4-2024-Spokane-Washington-USA-Gonzaga-Bulldogs-head-coach-Mark-Few-selects-players-to-send-in-against-the-Baylor-Bears-in-the-second-half-at-Spokane-Arena.-Mandatory-Credit-James-Snook-Imagn-Images-50x26.jpg 50w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/12/07113034/Nov-4-2024-Spokane-Washington-USA-Gonzaga-Bulldogs-head-coach-Mark-Few-selects-players-to-send-in-against-the-Baylor-Bears-in-the-second-half-at-Spokane-Arena.-Mandatory-Credit-James-Snook-Imagn-Images.jpg 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Nov 4, 2024; Spokane, Washington, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs head coach Mark Few selects players to send in against the Baylor Bears in the second half at Spokane Arena. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-Imagn Images</figcaption></figure>



<p>Gonzaga has completed the most important part of its resume as a member of the WCC. The Bulldogs have hit the ground running against conference opponents, starting their surge toward the postseason, where they have become a staple to land a high seed.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-east-washington">East (Washington)</h2>



<p><strong>Greenville</strong><br>1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Vermont/Navy<br>8 UCF vs. 9 Wisconsin<br><strong>Tampa<br></strong>5 Texas Tech vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)<br>4 Alabama vs. 13 Hofstra (CAA)<br><strong>Philadelphia</strong><br>6 Clemson vs. 11 Texas A&M/Baylor<br>3 Nebraska vs. 14 Oakland (Horizon)<br><strong>St. Louis<br></strong>7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 Seton Hall<br>2 Purdue vs. 15 Marist (MAAC)</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-1-seed-duke">1-seed Duke</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="538" src="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/06/06070910/Jon-Scheyer-7-1024x538.jpg" alt="duke-head-basketball-coach-jon-scheyer-explains-how-blue-devils-doing-things-differently-summer" class="wp-image-2489236" srcset="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/06/06070910/Jon-Scheyer-7-1024x538.jpg 1024w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/06/06070910/Jon-Scheyer-7-300x158.jpg 300w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/06/06070910/Jon-Scheyer-7-768x403.jpg 768w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/06/06070910/Jon-Scheyer-7-50x26.jpg 50w, https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2024/06/06070910/Jon-Scheyer-7.jpg 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption></figure>



<p>Duke remains a steady presence near the top of every bracketology model and others, from the polls to the computers. After their non-conference resume, the Blue Devils continue to look the part of a 1-seed team and have numbers headed back in the right direction.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-2-seed-purdue">2-seed Purdue</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://on3static.com/uploads/dev/assets/cms/2025/02/17142001/Screenshot-2025-02-17-at-3.19.01%E2%80%AFPM-1024x580.png" alt="Purdue coach Matt Painter" class="wp-image-3120549"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Purdue coach Matt Painter (Chad Krockover)</figcaption></figure>



<p>Purdue remains on the 2-seed line once again, as much a result of strong performances around it as anything it did. The Boilermakers have a solid resume and continue to trend back toward the 1-seed conversation.</p>


On3 Basketball

2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections following multiple upsets

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