2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Debut bubble watch list, early stock risers

The NCAA Tournament bubble has slowly taken shape over the non-conference schedule and early weeks of the new year, shaping the bubble conversation. With the Selection Committee watching each result unfold, it is never too early to take stock of where teams stand in the NCAA Tournament picture.

Every team’s position at this point is extremely fluid, with some teams safely in the field just one bad week away from a bubble conversation. Likewise, many bubble teams are one big week from feeling good about themselves in the NCAA Tournament picture.

For now, teams in the conversation for an 8-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on the 9-line are likely safe but cannot breathe a sigh of relief just yet. Those below the Next Four Out category still have more to do.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2026 Bracketology here.

Here are the teams who have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams currently in the NCAA Tournament picture.

Stock Up

St. Louis (24)

St. Louis slowly climbed all the analytic models through the non-conference schedule, putting themselves in the bubble mix by the time the calendar turned. Now on the right side of things regardless of an automatic bid, they are one of the key pieces of the bubble conversation.

The Billikens recently picked up a key A10 victory over fellow bubble team VCU, further building hope of a two-big league scenario.

Wisconsin (38)

Wisconsin had a tough time during the non-conference schedule and early conference games, sliding out of the Top 25 before finding themselves on the wrong side of the bubble entirely. That all changed when they knocked off projected No. 1 overall seed Michigan.

The Badgers are now back in the mix to land on the right side of the bubble, with plenty more opportunities to jump up the board further.

Miami (32)

Miami entered a new era this season with Jai Lucas, and early returns from the non-conference slate put them in the mix for a bubble conversation. Now, the Hurricanes are on a 10-game win streak with multiple victories in the ACC, setting up a very solid resume to build on.

The Hurricanes face a tough challenge on the road against Clemson next, with more runway to string together wins after that. A longer win streak could put them above the bubble completely.

Stock Down

UCLA (48)

UCLA has struggled from the start to live up to Top 25 rankings, lacking any real resume-building wins in the non-conference schedule. The have continued to slip in the analytic models to start Big Ten play as well, lacking efficiency.

The Bruins have now slid further down in the bubble conversation, leaving them with limited time to turn things around as the schedule only gets tougher.

Oklahoma (71)

Oklahoma has seen its stock move up and down on the bubble throughout the non-conference slate, and is now on a three-game losing streak in the SEC which has put them well on the wrong side of things for now.

The Sooners have enough runway left to get back into the mix, but face a number of difficult games with high stakes.

Kentucky (34)

The Kentucky roster has dealt with multiple injuries which setback the season, but the non-conference slate as a whole left plenty disappointment. From a lack of consistent results to low efficiency numbers, they struggled to build a resume.

The Wildcats still have cushion playing in the SEC, but have eaten through it all the way to the bubble. Now they must work their way back up the board.

Conference breakdown

Note: All teams listed with current NET Ranking within ().

ACC
In the field: Clemson (28), Duke (3), Louisville (20), North Carolina (22), SMU (25), Virginia (16)
On the bubble: Miami (32), NC State (31), Virginia Tech (59)
More to do: California (67), Stanford (69), Syracuse (65), Wake Forest (61)

Big 12
In the field: Arizona (2), BYU (9), Houston (12), Iowa State (7), Kansas (18), Texas Tech (19)
On the bubble: Baylor (42), TCU (43), UCF (37)
More to do: Colorado (68), Oklahoma State (73)

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (10), Iowa (21), Michigan (1), Michigan State (13), Nebraska (11), Purdue (6)
On the bubble: Indiana (36), Ohio State (40), UCLA (48), USC (45), Wisconsin (38)
More to do: Washington (55)

SEC
In the field: Alabama (17), Arkansas (33), Auburn (35), Florida (15), Georgia (23), Kentucky (34), Tennessee (26), Vanderbilt (4)
On the bubble: LSU (46), Missouri (72), Texas A&M (47)
More to do: Oklahoma (71), Texas (50)

Big East
In the field: St. John’s (27), UConn (8), Villanova (29)
On the bubble: Butler (53), Creighton (51), Seton Hall (39)
More to do: N/A

Others
In the field: Gonzaga (5), St. Louis (24), St. Mary’s (30), Utah State (14)
On the bubble: New Mexico (41)
More to do: George Mason (66), Miami (OH) (44), Santa Clara (52), SDSU (64)