Recalibrating expectations for Colorado, can LSU still make the playoff and what's wrong with Clemson?
Every team in college football has a “1” next to its name — either as a win or loss after two-ish*** weeks of the 2023 season. (We here honor Week 0 on the schedule). Colorado and Florida State dominated headlines with their Week 1 wins, while fans of the Tigers — both Clemson and LSU — are seeking some hard truths after getting exposed.
This is Ask Jesse (think Ask Jeeves, but for college football), where I answer your favorite CFB questions. In the future, be sure to fill up my internet mailbox via DM or Twitter reply @JesseReSimonton or by email at [email protected].
Onto this week’s questions…
LSU got rolled by Florida State but we saw the same thing happen with Oregon against Georgia last season. Come November, the Ducks were in the playoff hunt. Can the Tigers rally and still make the playoff? — Jason
Technically, yes.
Realistically? No.
Since the inception of the College Football Playoff in 2016, no team that has lost its season opener has gone on to make the CFP field. Most know that no two-loss team has ever made the playoff, either. So the odds are stacked against LSU.
Could the Tigers run the table the rest of the way with their schedule? I don’t see it. Florida State was clearly the better team Sunday, but that doesn’t mean LSU isn’t a Top 10-15ish team. Still, the Tigers (bizarrely) misused Harold Perkins Jr., they didn’t have DL Maason Smith and their above-average OL got overwhelmed by one of the best DLs in the country. I’m not going to celebrate my skepticism around Jayden Daniels’ Heisman Trophy odds, but it’s clear the senior still has limitations as a passer, too.
Ultimately, LSU is probably a 10-2, 9-3 team in 2023. Sometimes, in rare instances, we actually should heed what coaches tell us in the offseason. After basking in beating Alabama for six months, Brian Kelly started to really pump the breaks on any national title expectations for his team this fall. He told anyone who’d listen that LSU still lacked overall team depth (which we saw sans Smith), had concerns in the secondary (definitely) and was unsure if the RB room was ready for primetime (nope).
The Tigers rallied from a loss to the Seminoles in the opener last season to make the SEC Championship Game, and that remains a realistic goal. But LSU is not a playoff team in 2023. Not anymore anyway.
Do you believe? — David
We get it. Deion got a huge W. But I’m already exhausted by all the Colorado hype. Do we really have to deal with this all season? — Ben
After beating TCU, what is the ceiling for Colorado the rest of the season? Can they compete for the Pac-12? — Chris
Lots of Deion Sanders, Colorado questions this week, and understandably so!
I grouped all the inquiries together because…
First, I totally expected Deion Sanders — or Coach Prime as he would prefer — to provide the program with energy and exposure right away. He was always going to give the Buffs juice. I just didn’t know he had access to Michael Jordan’s ‘Secret Stuff’ from Space Jam.
I was legitimately stunned at how well organized, disciplined and cohesive a team with 65+ transfer players looked in Week 1 — as a 20.5-point underdog! This is not a team — with Shedeur Sanders at quarterback, Travis Hunter playing both ways and loads of skill talent — that is going to win just 2-3 games.
And yet, while I (do believe!) in Sanders’ vision to turn the Buffs into a (eventual Big 12) real contender, I’m going to pump the breaks a bit on the idea they’re suddenly an 8-9 win team in 2023. But also I’m not going to move the goal post here for Sanders and CU. If they make a bowl game, that’s still a massive success in my eyes.
The Buffs put EVERYTHING into that Week 1 matchup, and that’s not possible the rest of the season.
In 88 plays against TCU, they had ZERO tackles for loss. The Horned Frogs abandoned the run despite averaging over 7.1 yards per carry. Colorado’s offensive line started to wilt late, but Sanders was so accurate at quarterback it didn’t matter.
Those issues — and others — are going to pop up throughout the rest of the season. It’s fair to recalibrate Colorado’s ceiling in 2023 — I’d say a fringe bowl team capable of winning 5-7 games — but I need to see another couple of data points of success to truly believe this team is suddenly a legit Top 25 team all season.
For now, just enjoy the show — because in the end, college football is an entertainment product and no one is delivering more on that reality than Deion Sanders.
What’s Dabo’s deal? Offense looked the same. Cade (Klubnik) stinks. Tigers won’t even make the championship game. — Thomas
I’ll reserve judgment on Cade Klubnik in his just third-career start, but after one game in 2023, I do believe I was completely wrong about Clemson this fall. I thought Dabo Swinney, stubbornness and all, was serious about fixing Clemson’s offense by going outside the Tigers’ family tree and hiring Garrett Riley.
But even before the Tigers got embarrassingly blowout out by Duke, ESPN’s broadcasters talked about how Swinney told them he hired Riley “come in here and coordinate the Clemson offense.”
MAJOR RED FLAG ALERT
The whole allure of Riley to Clemson was an injection of fresh ideas and schematics. This isn’t Tommy Rees going to Tuscaloosa and him putting his fingerprints on “the Alabama offense.” Or Mike Bobo at Georgia.
Clemson’s offense — one that featured a staff last season with zero Power 5 coaching experience at anywhere but Clemson — had grown stale and predictable. Riley was supposed to come in and change that.
Instead, what we saw in Week 1 was much of the same. Iffy OL play. Next to no explosiveness (just two plays over 20 yards). Not trusting the QB to push the ball vertically (Klubnik had 35 throws, including 17 behind the LOS, under 10 yards in the air). Maybe it wasn’t DJ Uiageleli’s fault after all?
Swinney was right. Riley is coordinating “Clemson’s offense,” and that’s a problem.
The other obvious issue is Swinney’s allergy to the transfer portal. His refusal to even tweak the margins of his roster is beyond stubbornness at this point. It’s negligent. No one is asking Swinney to go to the extreme like Deion at Colorado or Lincoln Riley at USC, but purposely refusing to adapt and evolve to the times (especially in the last few seasons when the NCAA has loosened the transfer portal rules) is how you get a result like Monday night.
Clemson lacks dynamic playmakers on the perimeter. During the Tigers’ heyday from 2011-2020, they produced eight 1,000-yard receivers from guys like Sammy Watkins, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Williams and Tee Higgins. They haven’t had a guy on the outside catch more than 600 yards since. And yet even though more than 300 receivers entered the portal for the 2023 cycle, the Tigers didn’t take a single transfer.
Again, that’s a dereliction of his job. And if Swinney continues to disavow the portal, then his Tigers’ program will continue to recede toward the rest of the ACC — and no longer contend for championships.
Thoughts on Texas at Alabama? — Steve
Like almost everyone else in America, I can’t wait for this primetime matchup on Saturday. The Longhorns arguably should’ve beaten the Tide a year ago, only to see Quinn Ewers get hurt and Bryce Young turn into Superman late to halt the upset.
Flash forward, and many are super high on Texas’ potential in 2023, while others (though certainly not all if you saw the entire College GameDay crew pick the Tide to win the SEC) are down on Alabama.
For me, this is a let’s see it game from Ewers and Texas’ OL. I think Alabama is the better team. Better coach. Better overall roster. Jalen Milroe looked damn good against MTSU, but there’s certainly the question of whether he can replicate that performance against better competition? We’ll see.
But Ewers needs to answer the bell, too.
He continues to flash in spurts, but consistency has evaded him thus far. In Week 1, he made some great throws mixed in with missed shots downfield and the same footwork ills that plagued him in 2022. Meanwhile, the Longhorns’ supposedly strong OL had a sluggish start blocking Rice (eight TFLs allowed). That could spell disaster against Alabama’s fearsome front seven, or maybe it was just the Week 1 jitters, and they’ll look more like their preseason potential.
The showdown between Texas’ playmakers (JT Sanders, Xavier Worthy, AD Mitchell, etc.) versus Alabama’s secondary (Kool-Aid McKinstry, Jaylen Key, Malachi Moore, etc.) is the matchup to watch.
As we sit here midweek, I think Alabama wins and covers the touchdown spread.
What’s one preseason prediction you would take back? — Brian
Well, I’ve already eaten crow on my Clemson take within this very column. My Texas Tech to make the Big 12 Championship is off to an inauspicious start, but things do have a tendency to get loopy in Laramie!
It was just one game, but I’d have to go with North Carolina still being bad defensively. All credit to Gene Chizik, Charlton Warren and that Tar Heels’ staff because they had a great game plan to just punish Spencer Rattler and South Carolina’s offensive line.
When was the last time we saw UNC’s front just bully dudes? They had nine sacks and 16 tackles for loss. They were great at getting key stops on money downs (the Gamecocks were just 4 of 18 on third and fourth downs), too.
If UNC’s defensive turnaround is real, then coupled with Drake Maye’s upside and the offense’s potential in general, then the Tar Heels could absolutely be one best three (or better) teams in the ACC in 2023 — and I did not think that was possible one week ago.