2023 Bold Predictions: 10 Things I Think will happen in college football this fall
After an offseason stuffed with silliness — from another kooky coaching carousel, to NIL going bonanza, to more crazy conference realignment — it’s time for games again. Talkin’ season is over. Thank god.
Week 0 starts on Saturday, so that means predictions. Bold predictions. Some takes are spicier than others, but the following 10 Things I Think, I Think have varying ranges of heat.
Promise.
This is the first of a two-part series of 10 Things I Think, I Think. It’s an homage to a Peter King bit and something I snipped many moons ago as a beat writer covering Florida and Tennessee. Part 1 is a random set of predictions for 2023, and Part II will be my picks for conference championships, the Heisman Trophy and the College Football Playoff.
So flame me for a bunch of wrong predictions. You have the receipts. Debate away. 10 Things I Think, I Think will happen in college football in 2023:
1. This is Jim Harbaugh’s final season at Michigan
On Monday, the Wolverines proactively suspended their ninth-year head coach for the first three games of the 2023 season after Harbaugh has been accused of allegedly lying about buying recruits some hamburgers. The move is being framed as Michigan’s way of currying favor with the NCAA. I think it’ll have the opposite effect. Harbaugh has pleaded innocence and now his alma mater has effectively sided with the NCAA.
Harbaugh has flirted with the NFL every offseason, and after this season, he finally jumps (hello Los Angeles Chargers? Las Vegas Raiders? The Washington Commanders?) over frustrations with the NCAA, the lack of alignment at Michigan and wanting that elusive Super Bowl ring like his brother.
2. No one from the Pac-12, ACC or Big 12 will win the Heisman Trophy
That’s right, I’m eliminating the reigning Heisman winner and preseason favorite Caleb Williams. Apologies to Bo Nix, who already has a billboard campaign from New Your City to Dallas, and Michael Penix, last season’s leader in passing yards for an 11-win team.
Jordan Travis, Cade Klubnik and Drake Maye are all listed among the Top 10 in preseasons odds. Doesn’t matter.
Quinn Ewers? So sorry.
The Heisman Trophy winner is coming from the Big Ten or SEC. I don’t know if that’s Marvin Harrison Jr. or Carson Beck, but someone from those two conferences will take home the sport’s most cherished individual award in 2023.
3. Dont’e Thornton leads the SEC in touchdown receptions
The Oregon transfer caught a single touchdown in 2022, but the 6-5, 205-pound burner is primed for a breakout season running go routes out wide in Josh Heupel’s offense.
Thornton has created lots of buzz in the fall for the Vols, and while I don’t think he’ll match Jalin Hyatt’s numbers from last season (67 catches for 1,267 yards and 15 touchdowns) — he will become the second-straight Tennessee receiver to lead the league in scores.
4. TCU, Utah, North Carolina, Ole Miss and Tulane all finish the season unranked
College football is a crazy, unpredictable sport. There’s always a handful of teams ranked in the Preseason Top 25 that finish the year unranked.
A year ago, six of the Top 15 teams in the preseason USA Today Coaches Poll finished the year unranked — including three teams in the Top 10 (Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Baylor).
5. Deion Sanders goes 3-9 in Year 1 at Colorado
The Buffs will be the most interesting team in college football this fall, but that doesn’t mean Coach Prime’s “burn it, and build it” plan will paid dividends immediately. It’s going to be a long, rough year.
Colorado has 11 games against Power 5 opponents, and even a Week 3 home game against in-state rival Colorado State is no gimme. Sanders recently promised that Colorado is “gonna win.” He just didn’t say how many.
6. Iowa’s Drive for 325 isn’t even a sweat
Much-maligned Hawkeyes OC Brian Ferentz is facing a literal “Put up, or shut up,” contract year where the team must average at least 25 points per game or else he will be fired at season’s end.
Iowa soars past that number, averaging over four touchdowns (or over 28 points) per game in 2023. The OL is much improved and the additions of quarterback Cade McNamara, tight end Erick All and receiver Kaleb Brown will give the offense a floor that even Ferentz can’t fall below.
7. USC’s defense finishes in the No. 90s nationally again in yards per play and scoring
The Trojans led the nation in turnover margin in 2022 (+21), finishing fifth in the country in takeaways (28). And yet, Alex Grinch’s unit was still among the worst in the country.
I know they added a Bear (Alexander) and a host of other impact transfers, but the turnover regression monster + a more difficult schedule will equal the same ‘ole defensive results for a Lincoln Riley team.
8. Neal Brown, Dana Holgerson and Butch Jones will be among the those fired this offseason, but zero coaches will get canned from the SEC or ACC
Brown and Holgerson may play in a Loser Leaves Town Match on Oct. 14 when West Virginia visits Houston, while Jones has preached patience at Arkansas State but the results simply haven’t been there (5-19).
Conversely, Syracuse’s Dino Babers and Boston College’s Jeff Hafley win enough games to return to the sidelines in 2024, and there won’t be a coach fired in the SEC for the first time since 2018.
9. Carson Steele is among the most impactful transfers, leads all Power 5 tailbacks in rushing
A powerful, downhill running back in Chip Kelly’s offense = lots and lots of yards. College football’s Thor — the long-locked 6-1, 231 junior with a pet alligator who can squat over 600 pounds and runs a 4.5 — had 1,556 yards at Ball State last season and forced the second-most missed tackles in the country (96, per PFF).
Steele will share carries with T.J. Harden, but in Kelly’s run-heavy scheme, there are plenty of touches to replace with Zach Carbonnett and Dorian Thompson-Robinson no longer in Westwood. Steele will be a keystone piece of UCLA’s offense.
10. Texas A&M averages over 36 points game — the program’s best scoring total in the Jimbo Fisher Era — and Clemson leads the ACC in scoring
I’m optimistic that two of the more marquee coordinator hires this offseason will pay immediate dividends in 2023. In College Station, the Aggies haven’t averaged over 30 points per game since the shortened COVID 2020 season, and it topped 36 points per game once the entire 2022 season (38-23 win over LSU).
The engine may combust eventually, so don’t look under the hood this fall, but the Fisher-Bobby Petrino pairing will work in 2023. The Aggies return an OL that projects to be much improved. Sophomore quarterback Connor Weigman will be better in Year 2 and there are oodles of skill-talent (wideouts Evan Stewart, Noah Thomas and Ainias Smith, 5-star freshman tailback Rueben Owens).
Meanwhile, at Clemson, Dabo Swinney brought in Garrett Riley to spice up the Tigers’ stale offense. While the unit was a bit better in 2022 (33.2 points per game), there’s still plenty of room for growth with Riley calling plays and a full season of Cade Klubnik at quarterback.
Clemson led the ACC in scoring for three straight seasons from 2018-20, and the Tigers will reclaim the top spot in the rankings again this fall running Riley’s version of the ‘Air Raid.’