Bowl Projections: ESPN predicts 12-team College Football Playoff bracket, full bowl slate after Week 10

It’s been a difficult month for college football coaches on the hotseat after Auburn parted ways with Hugh Freeze on Sunday following Week 10’s loss, marking the fourth-consecutive weekend that has ended with an in-season firing. But as Power Four coaches drop like flies, the rest of the sport is focused on the upcoming College Football Playoff, especially ahead of Tuesday night’s big ranking reveal.

The first official reveal of the College Football Playoff’s weekly Top 25 rankings is Tuesday evening on ESPN. But, in the meantime, ESPN prognosticators Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach have provided a projection of what the 2025 postseason could look like based on the first 10 weeks of the season.

Keep in mind, this year’s 12-team CFP bracket format does away with automatic first-round byes for conference champions, with the opening byes going to the Playoff’s top four highest-ranked teams. That change aside, the first round will once again feature on-site home games for the highest-ranked teams numbered 5-8, just like last season. The first-round winners then advance to the quarterfinals, and subsequently to the semifinals, at previously-designated bowl sites.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 1

Bonagura: No. 12 North Texas at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Georgia 

Following another shakeup in the American after conference-leading Navy lost 31-17 to host North Texas, its first loss this season, the ESPN experts are once again feuding over their 12th seed. Bongura gives the nod to the Mean Green, while Schlabach sticks with Memphis.

They also differ on which conference will secure the No. 5 overall seed for its highest-ranked team not to play in their respective conference title game. Bonagura has Oregon holding onto that spot, while Schlabach expects Georgia will continue to maintain its grip of the No. 5 spot.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 2

Bonagura: No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Ole Miss

Much like the American, we have a new frontrunner in the ACC — No. 12 Virginia — after a wild Week 10 for the confernce, which saw two Top 10 teams — No. 8 Georgia Tech and No. 10 Miami — lose on the road to unranked NC State and SMU, respectively.

If the Cavaliers (8-1, 5-0 ACC) can remain undefeated in conference play and then win its first ACC title since 1995, they’ll likely have a first-round road trip to SEC country, with Bonagura projecting Georgia in the sixth spot while Schlabach has Ole Miss.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 3

Bonagura: No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Oregon

The Fighting Irish (6-2) are among college football’s hottest teams, winning six straight since opening the regular season with hard-luck losses to Miami and Texas A&M, climbing back into both the Top 10 rankings and the Playoff picture in the process.

Bonagura has Notre Dame matching up with the Rebels and highly-coveted coaching candidate Lane Kiffin in the first round, while Schlabach expects the Ducks to fall to the seventh seed behind a SEC foursome.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 4

Bonagura: No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 BYU
Schlabach: No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 BYU

Both ESPN prognosticators expect the fourth and final first-round Playoff game to be a rematch of the Big 12 Championship game the week before, which they expect the Cougars to win in Dallas.

Should it come to pass, it would actually be the third meeting between the two Big 12 rivals, the first of which is this upcoming Saturday in Lubbock. As the hosts, Texas Tech is widely projected to win Saturday’s regular-season game, meaning the first-round Playoff game could decide the best-of-3.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Cotton Bowl

Bonagura: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama

Despite the changes in the first-round, there’s not a lot of change with ESPN’s quarterfinal projections, with Bonagura still expecting the Rebels to face the Hoosiers in a battle between two of college football’s hottest names on the coaching carousel — Kiffin and Indiana’s Curt Cignetti.

Schlabach, meanwhile, projects an All-SEC quarterfinal in Dallas, and a rematch of Alabama’s 24-21 road win over the Bulldogs on Sept. 27. The Crimson Tide have rolled since its season-opening loss while Georgia has bounced back nicely from its Week 5 loss.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Orange Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4. Alabama
Schlabach: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Indiana

Given the shakeup in the ACC, Schlabach now agrees with Bonagura that the Ducks will make the cross-country journey to Miami for an All-Big Ten quarterfinal against conference runner-up Indiana. It would be a revenge opportunity after the Hoosiers’ Week 7 upset of the Ducks, 30-20, in Eugene.

Meanwhile, Bonagura expects Oregon to dispatch North Texas at home before facing off against SEC runner-up Alabama. This would be a bit of a trip down memory lane for Ducks coach Dan Lanning, who cut his teeth as an Alabama grad assistant under Nick Saban in 2015.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl

Bonagura: No. 8 BYU vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Bonagura and Schlabach are split on who ultimately makes it out of the Big 12 rematch in the first round, with Bonagura giving the nod to the Cougars, who he says aren’t “getting enough love nationally” despite still being undefeated 10 weeks into the regular season.

Schlabach, on the other hand, sticks with Texas Tech winning the series with BYU and moving on to take on Big Ten champion — and reigning national champ — Ohio State in The Granddaddy of Them All. Can either of the Big 12’s two Playoff bids end the Buckeyes’ run?

CFP National Quarterfinal at Sugar Bowl

Bonagura: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M

The fourth and final Playoff quarterfinal is setting up to be an All-SEC showdown in New Orleans, after both ESPN experts project the SEC champion Aggies will take one of the SEC’s at-large qualifiers for a trip to the national quarterfinals on the line.

Bonagura gives the nod to the sixth-seeded Bulldogs, fresh off a first-round win over ACC champion Virginia, while Schlabach has the surging Rebels facing off against the Aggies in a matchup pitting two of the conference’s top scoring offenses this season.

CFP National Semifinal at Fiesta Bowl

Bonagura: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State

It’s all chalk once again for the CFP national semifinals as both ESPN prognosticators project the Playoffs’ Top 4 seeds will cruise through the quarters and match up against one with a trip to the national championship on the line.

Bonagura and Schlabach expect the first semifinal in Arizona will be a rematch of the 2021 CFP National Championship Game in which Alabama dominated Ohio State 52-24 to secure Nick Saban’s final national title in 2020. Can the Crimson Tide do it again and dethrown the reigning champs?

CFP National Semifinal at Peach Bowl

Bonagura: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Indiana

Both ESPN experts expect the CFP semifinals will be the ultimate Big Ten-vs.-SEC showdown, with the Big Ten runner-up Hoosiers facing off against the SEC champion Aggies in Atlanta, the same site Texas A&M is projected to win its first-ever SEC title next month.

It would also match a pair of second-year head coaches that have completely rewritten the narrative around their respective football programs, with Mike Elko turning A&M into a conference champion in Year 2 while Cignetti transformed the Hoosiers into a perennial Big Ten power.

CFP National Championship

Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State

There will be no SEC upsets in the semifinals, guaranteeing a third-consecutive Big Ten national champion with the CFP national title game essentially becoming a Big Ten championship game rematch.

Bonagura and Schlabach expect the two most dominant teams through the first 10 weeks of the regular season will ultimately be there in the end, as the Big Ten once again dances of the grave of the SEC.

ESPN’s full 2025 bowl slate predictions

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Jackson State vs. Delaware State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. Delaware State

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Arizona vs. San Diego State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Coastal Carolina

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Old Dominion

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arkansas State vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Central Michigan

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. Marshall
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Florida vs. Florida State
Schlabach: UConn vs. Florida State

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Ohio vs. UNLV

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Temple vs. Miami (Ohio)

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Hawai’i
Schlabach: North Texas vs. Louisiana Tech

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. California
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Tulane

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Western Michigan

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Northwestern

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Temple vs. Troy
Schlabach: Boise State vs. Iowa State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Navy

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: SMU vs. Minnesota

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Florida

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: New Mexico vs. Washington State
Schlabach: New Mexico vs. Washington State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. LSU
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Vanderbilt

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Houston vs. Oklahoma

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Memphis vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Troy vs. UTSA

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Kennesaw State

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Washington
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Duke vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Arizona State

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. California

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Navy
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Auburn
Schlabach: TCU vs. Mississippi State

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: SMU vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Duke vs. Missouri

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. USC
Schlabach: Miami vs. Washington