Bracketology: ESPN 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions sees shakeup amid upsets

The NCAA Tournament is just over a month away. On Tuesday, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi updated his Bracketology to adjust for the latest wins and losses across the college basketball landscape.

While Arizona suffered its first loss of the season on Monday, Lunardi still believes the Wildcats will be the No. 1 overall seed. Meanwhile, other teams like Ohio State are simply vying for an opportunity to compete in the Big Dance.

Of course, there’s still plenty of time for teams to improve their postseason standing. Before we dive into Lunardi’s official NCAA Tournament projections, let’s examine the tournament bubble.

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Last Four Byes: Georgia, Saint Mary’s, UCLA, USC
Last Four In: Texas, Miami, San Diego State, New Mexico
First Four Out: Ohio State, Missouri, California, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: Oklahoma State, VCU, Seton Hall, Tulsa

Although teams like Georgia and UCLA won’t have to compete in the First Four if the NCAA Tournament began today, they can’t afford to suffer many more losses. After all, programs such as Missouri and Virginia Tech are desperate for any opening to squeeze into March Madness.

West Region (San Jose)

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Harvard
No. 8 Texas A&M vs. No. 9 SMU
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 USF
No. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 13 California
No. 6 Clemson vs. No. 11 Miami (OH)
No. 3 Florida vs. No. 14 Winthrop
No. 7 Utah State vs. No. 10 USC
No. 2 Nebraska vs. No. 15 Merrimack

Arizona finally fell on Monday, suffering an 82-78 loss to Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse. Moreover, the Jayhawks were without star Darryn Peterson. Nonetheless, Arizona’s résumé is still spectacular. The Wildcats have wins over Florida, UConn and BYU. They’ll be a nightmare opponent for any team unlucky enough to match up with them in the tournament.

South Region (Houston)

No. 1 UConn vs. No. 16 Long Island/Bethune-Cookman
No. 8 NC State vs. No. 9 Wisconsin
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Stephen F. Austin
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 UNC Wilmington
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 Texas/San Diego State
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Portland State
No. 7 Iowa vs. No. 10 Saint Mary’s
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Navy

UConn isn’t flawless. On Friday, the Huskies fell to St. John’s. Nonetheless, UConn has won two of the last three national championships and has the roster to secure another title. With five players averaging double figures, the Huskies have more weapons than almost any team in the country.

Midwest Region (Chicago)

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 NJIT/Morgan State
No. 8 Auburn vs. No. 9 UCF
No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 12 Belmont
No. 4 North Carolina vs. No. 13 Troy
No. 6 Arkansas vs. No. 11 Miami/New Mexico
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 UCLA
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Austin Peay

Arizona remains the top overall seed in Lunardi’s eyes, but Michigan can’t be far behind. The Wolverines have been phenomenal this season, currently owning a flawless 8-0 record in Quad 1 games. If Michigan can win the Big Ten, it’ll be a lock for a top seed in the NCAA Tournament.

East Region (Washington, D.C.)

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 UT Martin
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Indiana
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 Liberty
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 Hawaii
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 Santa Clara
No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 14 ETSU
No. 7 Saint Louis vs. No. 10 Georgia
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 Wright State

Like so many other top teams across the country, Duke suffered an upset loss this past week. Nonetheless, the Blue Devils have been the definition of consistency. With star freshman Cameron Boozer leading the way, Duke should be safe from an early exit in March Madness.