College Football Playoff Prediction: ESPN projects CFP Top 12 rankings after Week 11

The initial College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings of the 2025 season were unveiled this past Tuesday night, providing fans and media members alike an introduction to how the 12-member selection committee views the current field of contenders. And while there wasn’t much in the way of widespread controversy, it gave ESPN insider Heather Dinich interesting insight into the committee’s thinking.

And while there wasn’t much in the way of surprising upsets in Week 11, Saturday still saw five Top 25 go down. That includes in a pivotal Top 10 showdown that saw No. 8 Texas Tech assert control on the Big 12 title race with its dominating 29-7 win over previously undefeated No. 7 BYU in Lubbock. There was also a large shakeup in the ACC after the league’s top two teams, No. 14 Virginia and No. 15 Louisville, both lost to unranked Wake Forest and Cal, respectively, to further muddy the conference race.

With all that in mind, Dinich delivered a new prediction of how the CFP selection committee’s new Top 12 ranking could look this upcoming Tuesday night following Week 11.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0)

The Buckeyes were the No. 1 team in CFP’s initial Top 25 rankings Tuesday with committee chairman Mack Rhoades citing Ohio State’s “slight edge” both offensively and defensively over fellow unbeatens Indiana and Texas A&M.

Dinich does suggest the Hoosiers’ impressive last-minute win over Penn State, which opened the season ranked No. 4 but has lost six straight, could make for an interesting discussion about the No. 1 spot among the committee this week. But the expectation is Ohio State will remain at the top.

2. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0)

The Hoosiers needed a Heisman Trophy-caliber performance from star quarterback Fernando Mendoza on a last-minute touchdown drive to hold off an inspired Penn State, 27-24, on Saturday to remain undefeated and keep its grip on a likely first-round bye in the Playoffs.

Still, Dinich makes the point a comeback victory over the 3-6 Nittany Lions won’t do any favors for Indiana’s Playoff resume, even if committee members were potentially impressed. But even with Texas A&M’s 21-point win over No. 22 Missouri on Saturday, she doesn’t expect the Hoosiers to go anywhere.

3. Texas A&M Aggies (9-0) — (+1)

The Aggies just continue to turn heads while racking up wins week-in and week-out this season, including in Saturday’s 38-17 road victory over Mizzou, which was Texas A&M’s third consecutive SEC road win. Rhoades acknowledged that Tuesday night describing the Aggies as “a really, really good football team.”

But while A&M seems destined for a trip to the SEC Championship and a likely first-round Playoff bye, it must get past a Top 10-ranked Texas that has won four straight ahead of next Saturday’s pivot game in Athens. If the ‘Horns beat No. 5 Georgia, it’d make the LoneStar Showdown a SEC title play-in game.

4. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1) — (-1)

While Saturday’s 20-9 win over rival LSU likely won’t do much to impress the Playoff selection committee, it was an eighth-straight win for a Crimson Tide program that began the season 0-1 after an embarrassing 31-17 loss at unranked Florida State in Week 1.

Still, that win streak includes four consecutive Top 25 wins — which Rhoades described as the best four-game stretch this season — beginning with a 24-21 road win over No. 5 Georgia, arguably one of the most impressive victories of the season so far.

5. Georgia Bulldogs (8-1)

After needing second-half comebacks throughout much of SEC play, the Bulldogs finally put together a complete game in Saturday’s dominating 41-21 road win at Mississippi State. Despite that reality, Dinich knows it won’t be enough to outweigh the head-to-head home loss to Alabama.

That said, the committee will undoubtedly be watching next Saturday’s Top 10 SEC showdown against Texas in Athens, a game that could completely upend the conference race should Georgia stumble again at home. The Bulldogs also closes the regular season vs. ACC contending rival Georgia Tech.

6. Ole Miss Rebels (9-1)

The Rebels absolutely eviserated The Citadel, 49-0, on Saturday behind another eye-opening performance from quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, but Dinich doesn’t expect it to be enough to jump Georgia in this week’s ranking due to the head-to-head loss earlier this season.

In fact, Dinich suggested the lopsided win vs. The Citadel could ultimately hurt Ole Miss in the committee’s eyes, especially in light of Texas Tech’s convincing win over previously undefeated BYU on Saturday, given the Rebels’ best win came two weeks ago against Oklahoma.

7. Texas Tech Red Raiders (9-1) — (+2)

The Red Raiders are Dinich’s biggest climbers in the Top 12 this week following Saturday’s 29-7 rout of visiting BYU in Lubbock. The ESPN insider believes Texas Tech’s victory “is better than Oregon’s best win” and thus could result in the Red Raiders leapfrogging the Ducks in the committee’s eyes.

But while Saturday’s win was important for Texas Tech’s Playoff resume, it only further established BYU and Tech as the Big 12’s top two contenders, with ESPN’s Analytics currently projecting the two will meet again in the Big 12 Championship game in Arlington.

8. Oregon Ducks (8-1)

The Ducks withstood a fourth-quarter comeback try to edge out No. 20 Iowa 18-16 on the road Saturday, providing Oregon with a much-needed Top 25 victory after Penn State fell off the national radar following their 30-24 loss to the Ducks in Happy Valley earlier this season.

Still, the road doesn’t get any easier as Oregon closes out the regular season with back-to-back Top 25 games against USC and Washington, both of which could certainly play a factor in whether the Ducks can secure an at-large Playoff bid.

9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-2) — (+1)

Having won seven straight, including Saturday’s dominating 49-10 win over Navy, the Fighting Irish are arguably one of the country’s hottest teams and clearly the Playoff committee’s top two-loss program after last week’s ranking. And that shouldn’t change, according to Dinich.

When explaining Notre Dame’s initial ranking, Rhoades cited its improved defense and RB tandem of Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love, who he described as “the best backfield in the country.” And with next week’s game vs. No. 24 Pitt, the Irish could cement an at-large bid before the end of November.

10. Texas Longhorns (7-2) — (+1)

Despite being on bye Saturday, the Longhorns could still get a bump into the CFP Top 10 depending on how far one-loss BYU falls following its lost at Texas Tech. Texas has certainly rallied after a difficult start to the season with Top 25 wins over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt last month.

Of course, the Longhorns’ Playoff fate could ultimately rest with what happens in next Saturday’s Top 10 showdown against No. 5 Georgia in Athens. Dinich believes Texas has the best opportunity to impress the selection committee over the final three weeks of the season with its games at UGA and vs. Texas A&M.

11. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2) — (+1)

Also on bye this weekend, the Sooners’ spot in the rankings is likely dependent on where BYU falls to, and based on Dinich’s projection, that would result in a slight boost with the Cougars dropping to No. 12.

Still, Oklahoma has a serious chance to upend things in the SEC with next weekend’s road game at No. 4 Alabama with a home game against a likely Top 25-ranked Missouri in two weeks. If the Sooners can split those games, a potential at-large bid could be in their future.

12. BYU Cougars (8-1) — (-5)

As mentioned, Dinich expects the lopsided loss in Lubbock will see the Cougars fall to 12, which could potentially mean winning the Big Ten championship game will likely become BYU’s only avenue to the Playoff this season.

Of course, the Big 12 race is hardly decided yet and the Cougars still have challenging games ahead, including next week against TCU and a road game at Cinicinnati in two weeks. A lost in either of those games, especially to the Bearcats, could doom the Cougars’ Playoff hopes completely.

ESPN College Football Playoff bracket projection

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Alabama

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Georgia Tech (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Georgia Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Texas/No. 7 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State