College Football Playoff Prediction: ESPN projects CFP Top 12 rankings after Week 13

It’s all come down to this. After 13 weeks of college football action, the 2025 regular season has reached its conclusion with a holiday slate featuing three straight days of pivotal games during Week 14’s Rivalry Weekend. But before families gather around the table to enjoy their Thanksgiving turkey on Thursday, the College Football Playoff selection committee will unveil its fourth of six in-season Top 25 rankings Tuesday evening on ESPN.

Ahead of that, ESPN insider Heather Dinich provided her projection of how the CFP committee’s Top 12 will look after an eventful Week 13 slate that saw five Top 25 teams go down, though none of which are expected to impact the makeup of the Playoff’s current 12-team field. In fact, Week 13’s results — which included losses for No. 15 USC, No. 16 Georgia Tech, No. 21 Illinois, No. 22 Missouri and No. 23 Houston — only further solidified last week’s projected field of 12.

Taking Week 13’s results in mind, Dinich’s updated College Football Playoff Top 12 projection only includes a slight reshuffling between a pair of two-loss powers — Alabama and Notre Dame — that is more in line with the CFP committee’s most recent rankings reveal last Tuesday. Check it out below:

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0)

Top-ranked Ohio State has dominated nearly every team its faced this season to remain in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 overall Playoff in its defense of last season’s College Football Playoff national championship.

That includes a 42-9 rout of Rutgers on Saturday to all-but punch its ticket to Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game in two weeks. Of course, that would require the Buckeyes end its losing streak to rival Michigan and win The Game this upcoming Saturday, something Ohio State hasn’t done since 2020.

2. Indiana Hoosiers (11-0)

The undefeated Hoosiers were on bye in Week 13 ahead of its rivalry game this Friday against Purdue, and can lock up a trip to Indianapolis for next weekend’s Big Ten Championship game with a win in West Lafayette.

Given its consistent dominance this season, with only road games at Iowa and Penn State ending in single-digit victories, the Playoff committee has shown an affinity for Indiana, which appears destined for a Top 4 seed and first-round bye regardless of what happens in Indianapolis.

3. Texas A&M Aggies (11-0)

The undefeated Aggies remain a front-runner to not only make its first-ever appearance in the SEC Championship game in two weeks, but also secure a first-round bye in the upcoming Playoffs following Saturday’s 48-0 shutout of one-win Samford.

Of course, much like Ohio State, Texas A&M’s ticket to Atlanta rests on it beating rival Texas next Saturday in Austin. And while the Longhorns currently maintain a two-game win streak in the all-time series, the Aggies won the most recent matchup playing in Austin, a 24-17 victory back in 2010.

4. Georgia Bulldogs (10-1)

The Bulldogs hold onto the pivotal fourth spot in these Playoff rankings after Saturday’s 35-3 rout of overwhelmed Charlotte, and appear in perfect position to secure a first-round bye even if they don’t play in next week’s SEC Championship game, so long as Georgia beats rival Georgia Tech on Friday.

That said, the ‘Dawgs need more than a win in the Clean Old Fashioned Hate rivalry game to make it to Atlanta, given its head-to-head loss to Alabama earlier this season. Georgia would need either Texas A&M or the Crimson Tide to stumble in their respective rivarly games to defend last season’s SEC title.

5. Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-1)

The Big 12-leading Red Raiders remain in prime position to host a first-round Playoff game and is “highly regarded by the committee,” according to new CFP chair Hunter Yurachek, after dominant wins over fellow Big 12 contenders Utah and BYU.

That said, Texas Tech would need to not only beat West Virginia this upcoming Saturday, but also win the Big 12 Championship in two weeks to maintain control on their Playoff future. And while a loss in Arlington might not doom the Raiders’ Playoff chances, it’d certainly muddy the field for everyone else.

6. Ole Miss Rebels (10-1)

The Rebels were on bye this past weekend, but that didn’t stop Ole Miss from being the talk of the college football world as everyone awaits the pending decision of Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin, who is being heavily pursued by both Florida and LSU.

Meanwhile, while a chance at Atlanta might be difficult, Ole Miss remains in perfect position to make the 12-team Playoff field so long as it can finish the drill on Black Friday against rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl. Of course, Kiffin’s decision is expected next Saturday, which could complicate things.

7. Oregon Ducks (10-1)

The Ducks secured a much-needed Top 25 statement win, 42-27, over 15th-ranked USC on Saturday that should all-but secure Oregon a Playoff bid, even if it still needs to close out the regular season with a victory over Washington this coming Saturday.

And while they’ll need a lot of help to make the Big Ten Championship game in Indianapolis — including losses by both Ohio State and Indiana — a first-round home Playoff game in Eugene will be a well-deserved consolation prize for the Ducks.

8. Oklahoma Sooners (9-2)

The Sooners leapfrogged right back into the thick of the Playoff race with Week 12’s road upset of Alabama, a move that was reinforced by Saturday’s 17-6 win over No. 22 Missouri, which might not mean as much once the Tigers fall out of the Top 25.

Still, a victory in next Saturday’s regular-season finale against LSU will not only lock up a Playoff spot, but a likely first-round home game regardless of what happens ahead of them. And, as long as there’s not massive upheaval in front of them, they’ll likely match up with ninth-seeded Notre Dame in Norman.

9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-2) — (+1)

Winners of nine straight following a 0-2 start to the regular season, the Fighting Irish got the benefit of the doubt from the Playoff committee in last week’s Top 25 ranking to slot ahead of Alabama following the Tide’s Week 12 loss to Oklahoma.

The committee seemed to favor Notre Dame’s early-season losses to ranked Miami and Texas A&M, by a combined four points, compared to Alabama’s losses. And with no conference championship to worry about, the Irish are guaranteed an at-large bid with a win Saturday at Stanford.

10. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2) — (-1)

As mentioned, the Playoff committee cited the Crimson Tide for is lopsided Week 1 loss at unranked Florida State when comparing resumes with Notre Dame, thus dropping Alabama to the 10th spot, which could be the final at-large bid once the ACC and Group of Five champions are added to the mix.

Still, as opposed to last season, the two-loss Tide still control their postseason destiny with a chance at not only making the Playoff field but the SEC Championship game in Atlanta with a win over rival Auburn in Saturday’s Iron Bowl. Of course, that’s easier said then done, especially inside Jordan-Hare Stadium.

11. BYU Cougars (10-1)

Despite the Week 11 loss to host Texas Tech, the Cougars remain in prime position to potentially play its way into the Playoff field by winning the Big 12 Championship in Arlington, a game that is looking like a potential rematch with the Red Raiders.

That said, a loss in that game — especially if its as lopsided as the first game — would likely doom BYU’s Playoff hopes. Of course, if the Playoffs were this weekend, the Cougars would likely still themselves on the outside looking in once the ACC and Group of Five champions are included in the field.

12. Utah Utes (9-2)

The Utes remain in the same situation as BYU, albeit in a worst position given their head-to-head loss to the Cougars in Week 8. And with only the slightest chance of making it to the Big 12 title game given its head-to-head losses to both Texas Tech and BYU, Utah’s Playoff chances are fading by the minute.

Dinich also suggested fellow 9-2 Miami might have done enough in Saturday’s 34-17 win at Virginia Tech to leapfrog the Utes for the 12th spot in this week’s Top 25 poll. Not that it’ll mean much for Utah, which would already be out of the 12-team field in favor of the Group of Five champion.

ESPN College Football Playoff bracket projection

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State