ESPN ranks Top 24 teams with highest chance to make College Football Playoff after Week 6

college-football-playoff-director-rich-clark-talks-smu-making-the-field-expansion-strength-of-schedule — Dec 29, 2022; Atlanta, GA, USA; The College Football Playoff trophy inside the College Football Hall of Fame during media day for the Peach Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Adam Cairns-The Columbus Dispatch

After a wild Week 6, ESPN released its updated rankings for teams with the best chance of reaching the College Football Playoff. With five ranked teams suffering losses this week, ESPN had plenty to consider.

As a reminder, the CFP will look a bit different this season. While the five conference champions ranked highest in the CFP rankings will receive automatic bids, the playoff will follow a straight-seeding format. Only the four highest-ranked teams will receive byes.

While several teams only cemented their status as a CFP team this past weekend, others slipped out of the picture. With so many teams to cover, let’s dive into ESPN’s chances for each of the 24 teams below to earn a spot in the CFP.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes | 89% chance

Ohio State isn’t letting its foot off the gas. On Saturday, the Buckeyes dominated Minnesota 42-3. As usual, Ohio State’s defense was dominant, allowing only 162 yards of total offense.

The Golden Gophers finished the game with just 11 first downs. The Buckeyes have only given up 25 total points through five games this season, the least in the country. If defense wins championships, Ohio State fans have plenty to be excited about.

2. Oregon Ducks | 87% chance

Oregon Coach Dan Lanning — (Photo by: Max Unkrich/ScoopDuckOn3)

Oregon is nipping at Ohio State’s heels, with an 87% chance of earning a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Ducks enjoyed a bye this past weekend after picking up a marquee win over Penn State on the road in Week 5.

Oregon silenced Penn State’s White Out crowd, downing the Nittany Lions in double overtime. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore tallied 248 passing yards and three touchdowns in the win, without throwing an interception.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide | 79% chance

Alabama proved its Week 5 win over Georgia was no fluke this past weekend, with a convincing 30-14 triumph over Vanderbilt. The Commodores had no answers for Crimson Tide QB Ty Simpson, who notched 340 passing yards and two touchdowns.

Alabama’s defense was stellar as well. The unit held Vanderbilt to 334 yards and squeezed two turnovers out of the Commodores. Alabama running back Jam Miller racked up 136 rushing yards in the victory.

4. Miami Hurricanes | 78% chance

Miami arguably has the best résumé in college football. On Saturday, the Hurricanes only added to their laundry list of successes with a 28-22 win over Florida State.

Miami has now defeated Florida, USF and FSU this season, and won its season-opening showdown against Notre Dame. With Clemson struggling, Miami appears to have a clear path to the ACC title and the CFP.

5. Indiana Hoosiers | 72% chance

Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza — (Jeffrey Becker | Imagn Images)

Indiana enjoyed a well-earned bye in Week 6 after escaping with a hard-fought 20-15 win over Iowa in Week 5. The Hawkeyes didn’t have any answers for Indiana wide receiver Elijah Sarratt.

Sarratt recorded six catches for 132 yards and a touchdown against the Hawkeyes. Indiana’s defense held Iowa to 284 total yards of offense and forced the Hawkeyes to commit two turnovers.

6. Ole Miss Rebels | 71% chance

Ole Miss also rested this past weekend after downing LSU 24-19 the previous Saturday. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss tallied 314 passing yards and a touchdown in the impressive triumph.

Get the Daily On3 Newsletter in your inbox every morning

By clicking "Subscribe to Newsletter", I agree to On3's Privacy Notice, Terms, and use of my personal information described therein.

It was his third consecutive game with 300 or more passing yards, since taking over for an injured Austin Simmons in Week 3. ESPN feels confident Ole Miss will make its first CFP appearance in program history this season.

7. Texas A&M Aggies | 67% chance

Texas A&M didn’t fall victim to a trap game on Saturday, defeating Mississippi State in emphatic 31-9 fashion. In the win, Texas A&M’s defense shined, limiting the Bulldogs to 219 total yards of offense.

Texas A&M’s run attack gave Mississippi State problems all game. Nobody outplayed Aggies RB Rueben Owens II, who amassed a jaw-dropping 142 rushing yards in the win on only 21 carries (6.8 yards per carry).

8. Georgia Bulldogs | 61% chance

Georgia head coach Kirby Smart — (Tony Walsh/UGAAA)

Georgia bounced back from its loss to Alabama with a 35-14 beatdown on Kentucky. The Bulldogs were multi-faceted, notching over 180 yards both through the air and on the ground.

Four receivers for Georgia logged over 30 receiving yards. However, nobody outpaced Dillon Bell, who finished the contest with four catches for 68 receiving yards. Georgia only has two ranked opponents remaining on its schedule and could squeak into the CFP with any luck.

9. Texas Tech Red Raiders | 54% chance

Texas Tech is quickly emerging as the favorite to win the Big 12. The Red Raiders only added to the hype around them on Saturday with a 35-11 victory over Houston. Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton stole the spotlight in the triumph.

He completed 28-of-his-40 pass attempts for 345 yards and a touchdown, while throwing no interceptions. Running backs J’Koby Williams and Cameron Dickey combined for 205 rushing yards and two scores.

10. Oklahoma Sooners | 45% chance

Oklahoma is 5-0, but ESPN isn’t ready to declare the team more likely to reach the College Football Playoff than not. The Sooners’ fate will largely depend on how fast quarterback John Mateer can recover from the hand surgery he underwent.

Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables said he doesn’t expect Mateer to be ready for the Red River Rivalry game this weekend. Alas, backup QB Michael Hawkins Jr. looked strong in Week 6, completing 14 passes for 162 yards and three touchdowns in Oklahoma’s 44-0 triumph over Kent State.