ESPN releases 2023 College Football Playoff, full bowl projections after Week 12

After a college football weekend in which five ranked teams lost, the bowl projections have been shaken up yet again. A few teams drastically helped their chances of reaching a higher-quality bowl, while others saw their bowl hopes dim.

Among the most impressive wins on the weekend were Kansas State‘s win over a ranked Kansas squad, Georgia‘s demolition of a ranked Tennessee and Arizona‘s blasting of a ranked Utah.

How did those games, and the results of dozens of others this weekend affect the bowl projections from ESPN’s gurus Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura? Let’s take a look below.

CFP National Championship

NRG Stadium (Houston)
Monday, Jan. 8, 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Michigan

Both ESPN writers have held steady on their Georgia vs. Michigan pick for the past few weeks, and it’s hard to disagree with them given how steady both programs have been. Off-the-field drama aside, Michigan has done what it’s needed to do to set up the sensational showdown with Ohio State this weekend, at which point we’ll have more potential for movement at the top of these bowl projections.

CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl

Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
Monday, Jan. 1, 5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Washington
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Oregon

Neither ESPN writer changed their semifinal projections for the Rose Bowl, with both projecting Michigan going out west as the No. 2 seed in the College Football Playoffs, to face off against whatever team emerges as No. 3. Both ESPN writers see that being a Pac-12 team, though they differ on which one. Bonagura has opted to go with chalk and Washington winning out, while Schlabach apparently sees an Oregon win in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl

Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Monday, Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Florida State
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Texas

A week ago both ESPN writers had Georgia facing Florida State in the semifinal at the Sugar Bowl, but Schlabach has had a change of heart following the unfortunate Jordan Travis injury on Saturday night. He no longer has the Seminoles reaching the playoffs, awarding the final spot instead to Texas. But his pick highlights one point: The selection committee’s handling of Florida State in this week’s rankings will be very important.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

Friday, Dec. 29
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Ohio State vs. Texas
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Florida State

Bonagura’s pick for the Cotton Bowl has not changed, with Ohio State getting a New Year’s Six bowl with Michigan in the playoff and Texas also getting one after missing the playoff. Schlabach, on the other hand, has changed both of his bowl projections from a week ago here. He previously had Missouri vs. Texas but now has Alabama vs. Florida State in a matchup of teams that just miss the College Football Playoff.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 30
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Missouri vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Missouri vs. Tulane

Once again Bonagura’s pick for the Peach Bowl has not changed from last week, with an SEC vs. AAC matchup as Tulane takes the Group of Five champion spot in the New Year’s Six. Schlabach has changed his picks to match, one week after he had Alabama vs. Penn State in this spot. Missouri vs. Tulane would be a fantastically fun game to watch, with two gritty offenses that know how to churn out yardage and points going against each other.

Capital One Orange Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 30
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
4 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Ohio State

Both ESPN writers left their picks for the Orange Bowl unchanged from last week. Both see Louisville getting in, though it’s especially notable that Schlabach has Louisville projected here. That means that Louisville — with Florida State not in Schlabach’s playoff — is projected to beat Florida State, according to the veteran ESPN writer. Perhaps not terribly surprising given the Jordan Travis news, but certainly interesting in the bowl projections.

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

Monday, Jan. 1
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oregon vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Penn State

The only real change in the final New Year’s Six bowl is Penn State swapping in for Tulane in Schlabach’s prediction. Both ESPN writers have a Pac-12 team emerging as a Fiesta Bowl contender, depending on which one they have in the playoff. For Bonagura, Oregon slots here after losing out to Washington, while Schlabach has the matchup the other way around. Penn State should be reasonably secure as one of the final New Year’s Six bowl invitees.

Remaining Bowl Projections:

Saturday, Dec. 16
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida A&M vs. Howard
Schlabach: Florida A&M vs. Howard

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: New Mexico State vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: Liberty vs. James Madison

Cure Bowl
FBC Mortgage Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. Rice
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Wyoming

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Utah State vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Air Force vs. New Mexico State

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UCLA vs. UNLV
Schlabach: USC vs. UNLV

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Cal
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Syracuse

Monday, Dec. 18
Famous Toastery Bowl
Jerry Richardson Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Georgia Southern

Tuesday, Dec. 19
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas State vs. San José State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Colorado State

Thursday, Dec. 21
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Marshall vs. San José State

Friday, Dec. 22
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: South Florida vs. Troy
Schlabach: South Florida vs. UCF

Saturday, Dec. 23
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Liberty vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. South Alabama

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Arkansas State vs. UCF
Schlabach: Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Army
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Navy

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Air Force
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Utah State

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
7 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia State vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Toledo

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Utah
Schlabach: Maryland vs. UCLA

EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
10:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Rice vs. Fresno State

Tuesday, Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Ohio

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Virginia Tech
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. UTSA

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Illinois vs. West Virginia
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Kansas

Wednesday, Dec. 27
Military Bowl presented by GoBowling.com
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Duke vs. SMU
Schlabach: Miami vs. Memphis

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Kentucky

DirecTV Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Oregon State

TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Texas A&M
(FUN FACT: There were 19 instances this week in the bowl projections where both Bonagura and Schlabach penciled in the same team to the same bowl, excluding the New Year’s Six bowls.)

Thursday, Dec. 28
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Miami vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Boston College vs. SMU

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Rutgers
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Rutgers

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State
Schlabach: NC State vs. Oklahoma State

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Arizona

Friday, Dec. 29
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: NC State vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Boston College vs. USC
Schlabach: Duke vs. Utah

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Troy

Saturday, Dec. 30
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Auburn

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Wyoming
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. Boise State

Monday, Jan. 1
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. LSU
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. LSU

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Ole Miss