Greg McElroy picks Tennessee to upset Georgia, snap eight-year drought

It’s been nearly a full decade since Tennessee last claimed a victory on the gridiron over former SEC East rival Georgia. The Bulldogs have won the last eight straight against the Volunteers in a series that dates back to 1899, including the last four in Knoxville by an average margin of victory of 30.5 points since a 41-0 shutout in Knoxville in 2017.

In fact, the Volunteers’ last victory came in 2016 and required a Hail Mary touchdown pass from quarterback Josh Dobbs to Jauan Jennings to pull off a last-second 34-31 road win in a game that visiting No. 11 Tennessee entered as a four-point favorite.

There are similar circumstances, albeit in the reverse, in Saturday’s SEC opener between No. 6 Georgia (2-0) and No. 15 Tennessee (2-0), with the Bulldogs entering the contest as a 4.5-point favorite inside Neyland Stadium, according to BetMGM’s Sportsbook. Kickoff is set for 3:30 pm ET and the game will be televised on ABC.

But while even oddsmakers — and history — seem to point to another Georgia victory Saturday, ESPN analyst Greg McElroy is calling for the early-season upset during Thursday’s Always College Football podcast, and he used both the odds and recent history to explain his thinking.

“Betting trend in this game: Georgia is 2-11 against the spread as a favorite since the start of last season, 1-11 against the spread in their last 12 as a favorite, and 0-3 against the spread as a road favorite. (So) I’m taking Tennessee,” McElroy said on Thursday’s podcast. “Doesn’t feel good, not going to lie, because Georgia I feel like is kind of waiting, it’s felt like they’ve been so conservative and played their cards close to the vest.”

Greg McElroy on Georgia-Tennessee prediction: ‘Doesn’t feel great, but I think they can get it done’

To McElroy’s point, the Bulldogs’ beleagured offense continues to confound both fans and media — a trend that dates back into last season — and enters Saturday with the SEC’s ninth-ranked total offense averageing 454.5 yards per game. Meanwhile, even after a tumultuous offseason that saw an unexpected quarterback trade with UCLA, the Tennessee offense under head coach Josh Heupel continues to be among the SEC’s most explosive, including leading the league averaging 605 total yards per game through the first two weeks this season.

Georgia is still breaking in redshirt junior quarterback Gunner Stockton as the team’s QB1 after two-year starting quarterback Carson Beck transferred to Miami this offseason, and appears to be finding its way with a rebuilt receiver room and an injury-plagued offensive line. Of course, whether or not those struggles prove detrimental Saturday in Knoxville is yet to be seen, but McElroy is hedging his bets in favor of the Vols offense going off inside Neyland Stadium.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if they came out and had by far their best performance of the season, and I know their defense is amazing,” McElroy continued. “And there is a lot that I don’t know yet about Tennessee, but at least I’ve seen some firepower. At least I’ve seen some downfield shots hit, and at least I’ve seen a pass rush that appears to be really relentless and might be able to neutralize the advantage that Georgia normally has against the opposing defensive line.

“I’m taking Tennessee. It doesn’t feel great, but I think they can get it done there in Neyland.”