LSU Tigers: Post-spring stock report
With spring football in the rear view mirror, it’s time to fully embrace the Head Ball Coach’s “talkin’ season.” The transfer portal carousel has slowed, so while rosters aren’t totally finalized just yet, we at least have a sense of strong foundation for each SEC program.
So let’s take a stock report for every team in the conference, examining their offense, defense and overall outlook heading into the 2022 season.
Today we look at the LSU Tigers:
LSU OFFENSE — STOCK UP
The LSU Tigers lost their leading passer, top two tailbacks and majority of their starting offensive line in 2021, yet they should be better offensively in Year 1 of the Brian Kelly regime.
Max Johnson, now at Texas A&M, was solid at quarterback last season, but LSU still has suitable options at the position with Myles Brennan back and healthy, Garrett Nussmeier a year older and former Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels on the roster.
Daniels may start Week 1 for the Tigers, especially if Kelly and offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock want to emphasize the QB-run game in the offense, but I expect either Brennan or Nussmeier to play a role, too.
The Tigers ranked 11th or worse in scoring offense (just 26.6 points per game), rushing (a piddly 3.3 yards per carry and just nine touchdowns) and red zone last season — much which could be laid at the feet of an offensive line that never had much consistency.
Outside of one ridiculous outlier performance against Florida (321 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns), LSU’s run game was constantly stuck in the mud in 2021.
It should be much better this season. Kelly and Denbrock’s scheme will help, but the return of former 5-star John Emery, who missed last season due to academics, is a huge boost. The tailback room also includes Armoni Goodwin and Tre Bradford, both who looked good this spring. We’ll see how much Penn State transfer Noah Cain factors into the equation.
Receiver remains a strength for the Tigers, as Kayshon Boutte is back and healthy. He had nine touchdowns in just six games last season and might be the most purely talented wideout in the conference this fall. LSU also returns Jack Bech, Jaray Jenkins, Malik Nabers and a couple other promising sophomores. They also added Kyren Lacy, who had six touchdowns a freshman in 2021, from Louisiana-Lafayette.
But LSU’s offensive improvement will only go as far as its rebuilt OL takes it. They hold the keys to the offense’s entire ceiling.
The unit was dreadful last season (as mentioned 3.3 ypc but also 38 sacks allowed), so Kelly grabbed multiple potential starters and depth pieces from the transfer portal. The Tigers also signed 5-star offensive lineman Will Campbell, who finished the spring as the team’s starting left tackle.
If the cobbled-together unit, which as plenty of former blue-chip recruits on the depth chart, can at least be functional this fall, then LSU’s offense should be fun to watch.
LSU DEFENSE — STOCK UP (SLIGHTLY)
The LSU Tigers won’t field a great defense this fall, but thanks to the development of guys like Maason Smith, Jaquelin Roy and BJ Ojulari, as well as a completely new-look secondary with a bevy of transfer portal additions (Greg Brooks Jr. and Joe Foucha from Arkansas, All-Big 12 corner Jarrick Bernard-Converse from Oklahoma State and corner Mekhi Garner from Louisiana-Lafayette), new DC Matt House’s unit should offer more resistance than it did in 2021.
Despite Top 5 NFL pick Derek Stingley Jr. at corner, LSU’s pass defense was shredded on a weekly basis last season. The self-proclaimed DBU allowed a SEC-high 29 touchdowns. The Tigers were also next-to-last in the SEC in takeaways and 10th in third-down defense.
Brooks and Foucha garnered lots of praise this spring, so the secondary should be better. Same for LSU’s pass rush.
The Tigers were solid getting to the quarterback last season (38 sacks), and Ojulari and Ali Gaye could form one of the better 1-2 edge-tandems in the conference. Meanwhile, Smith has “Breakout Candidate” written all over him, as the former 5-star as a force this spring. The Tigers also poached versatile DE/DT Mehki Wingo from Missouri, who was an All-SEC freshman performer in 2021.
Add it all up and LSU should have one of the best DLs in the country this season.
There’s some unknowns at linebacker, which is a fairly young unit, but there’s hope that Greg Penn III will make a nice sophomore leap. Senior Micah Baskerville returns as the team’s leading tackler (83), while former Clemson transfer Mike Jones Jr. could find a bigger role in his second season in Baton Rouge. There’s also 5-star freshman Harold Perkins Jr., a major signing day win for Brian Kelly over Texas A&M.
2022 OVERALL OUTLOOK — STOCK HOLDING
So better offense + better defense = better LSU, right?
Not necessarily.
LSU is my sleeper team in the conference this fall, but that’s mainly because it has such a fascinatingly wide variance of high ceiling-low floor. It’s a team of extremes.
There’s a lot of newness in Baton Rouge. I’m not worried about Kelly as a cultural fit in the SEC. He’s won at every stop he’s been. He left Notre Dame because LSU gives him a better chance to win a title. Just ask the Tigers’ last three coaches. But that’s not happening in Year 1, and it may take some time for an overhauled roster and a new coaching staff to coalesce — something that could present issues in an unforgiving SEC.
The Tigers open the season with Florida State and have road games at Texas A&M, Florida, Arkansas and Auburn. That’s brutal. When you add games against Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Tennessee, the Tigers could be underdogs or coin-flip favorites in every conference game they play this fall.
There’s a reason why their over/under sits at 7. Kelly’s team has the upside of finishing as high at No. 2 in the SEC West this fall, but they just as plausibly could finish last in the division for the second-straight year.