March Madness bracket trends: Key historical patterns to know for 2026

There is no perfect formula for filling out March Madness brackets. Millions of fans’ brackets are busted every year.

But history shows patterns are hiding inside the madness. As fans fill out their brackets, several historical trends — along with KenPom’s predictive metrics — provide insight into which teams could be primed for deep runs and where the most likely upsets could come. On3 is breaking down what fans need to know:

Historical trends based on March Madness seeding

The First Four has quietly become more than a play-in round. One of those teams has reached the second round in 12 of the last 14 NCAA tournaments, with five advancing all the way to the Sweet 16, according to ESPN.

This year’s play-in games again feature bubble teams with something to prove. Six of the last seven at-large teams with 14 or more losses have won their first-round game. No. 11 seed Texas, which finished 18–14, plays NC State on Tuesday night. SMU, meanwhile, faces Miami (Ohio) after becoming the only team in the field with a losing conference record.

History also suggests a No. 4 seed will fall. In 15 of the last 17 tournaments, at least one No. 4 seed has been knocked out in the opening round. There have never been back-to-back tournaments where every top-four seed survived the first round. Here are the first-round matchups for the No. 4 seeds this year:

• No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Cal Baptist
• No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 13 Troy (The Cornhuskers have never won an NCAA tournament game)
• No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 13 Hawaii
• No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Hofstra

In three of the last five tournaments, a No. 15 seed has won a first-round game and gone on to reach the Sweet 16: Princeton, Saint Peter’s and Oral Roberts.

Only two No. 14 seeds have won first-round games in the last eight NCAA tournaments. But at least one No. 13 seed has won a first-round game in 28 of 40 tournaments. And one No. 12 seed has won a first-round game in 34 of 40 tournaments.

One more historical note as the bracket opens: the last West Coast program to win the national championship was Arizona in 1997.

KenPom forecasts March Madness

KenPom.com has become part of college basketball vocabulary, used by fans, media and coaches. Data from KenPom has historically forecasted and provided insight into who will be hoisting a national title in early April.

Twenty-one of the past 23 champions (exceptions were UConn in 2014 and Baylor in 2021) entered the tournament ranked in the top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The teams that fit that criteria this season: Arizona, Duke, Florida, Gonzaga, Houston, Illinois, Iowa, Iowa State, Kentucky, Louisville, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, North Carolina, Purdue, Tennessee, Texas Tech, UConn, Vanderbilt and Virginia.

Another notable trend: 12 of the past 13 champions ranked in the top seven in offensive or defensive efficiency in the KenPom ratings. Among the teams above, which one fits that criteria? Arizona, Duke, Florida, Houston, Illinois, Iowa State, Michigan, Purdue and Vanderbilt.

Nineteen of the last 22 March Madness champions ranked in the top six in the overall KenPom ratings entering the Big Dance. Of the nine teams listed in the paragraph above, Arizona, Duke, Florida, Houston, Iowa State and Michigan fit the criteria.