Predicting the fourth 2025 College Football Playoff Top 25, 12-team CFP Bracket

The college football regular season is almost over and that means the chances to make a case for a College Football Playoff berth are almost gone. At most, teams have two games remaining.

Plenty of teams have stated their case for the playoff at this point, and Tuesday’s coming rankings reveal will provide an updated picture at who must do what. Several teams could be flirting with the cut line.

So who benefited from the last week of college football action and who was penalized? Here is our look at the projected fourth College Football Playoff rankings following Week 13.

A CFP Rankings Reminder

Keep in mind that the College Football Playoff format has shifted slightly this season. Whereas in the first edition of the 12-team playoff the four highest-ranked conference champions were guaranteed a first-round bye, they no longer are.

Also, simply being in the top 12 of the rankings does not guarantee a spot in the playoff. A power conference champion ranked outside the top 12 remains guaranteed a spot, while the highest-ranked Group of Six champion will also be guaranteed a spot in the playoff bracket. Those teams can potentially bump a team in the top 12 out of the bracket.

Projected College Football Playoff Rankings – Top 25

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0)*

Ohio State remains the favorite to win the Big Ten, though it will be quite the battle if things shake out as anticipated. The Buckeyes have hardly been tested in recent weeks, cruising past most opponents.

That will change immediately, with the annual rivalry game against Michigan now up. The series has been thoroughly in the hands of the Wolverines of late. Can Ohio State flip its fortunes and remain unbeaten ahead of conference championship weekend?

2. Indiana Hoosiers (11-0)

Prior to this week’s bye, Indiana had a ho-hum win over a Wisconsin team that hasn’t put up much of a fight against the majority of its schedule. It was easy cruising for Fernando Mendoza and company.

Not that Indiana necessarily needed it, but the extra week should be useful ahead of the final road trip to Purdue and then a trip to the Big Ten title game. The College Football Playoff scenarios for Indiana are pretty straightforward at this point. Keep winning and earn a first-round bye or lose and risk playing somewhere on the road.

3. Texas A&M Aggies (11-0)*

Texas A&M had an easy tune-up against Samford before its showdown on the road at Texas in the regular-season finale. The good news is that the Aggies should pretty much be assured of a playoff berth by this point.

Still, Texas A&M has plenty to play for against Texas. One, the program can eliminate its rival for good, even though Texas is a long shot to make the field. Two, there’s a first-round bye on the line.

4. Georgia Bulldogs (10-1)

Georgia also had a tune-up game this weekend, playing Charlotte. It wasn’t the best outing, though the Bulldogs simply ran away with things on the ground in the end.

But the focus is clearly on the future for Georgia right now. All eyes will be on the Alabama–Auburn and Texas-Texas A&M games, which will determine whether Georgia can reach the SEC title game. The Bulldogs need a Tide or Aggies loss.

5. Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-1)*

Texas Tech had a bye week this week, getting a chance to rest and recover before the finale. The Red Raiders are probably right around the range where they can afford another loss and still make the field, but it’s certainly not a theory they want to test.

A road trip to West Virginia is the first test, then a probable trip to the Big 12 Championship Game. There’s also still a good shot that Texas Tech plays its way into a bye in the College Football Playoff based on teams in front of it picking up a loss. Lot to play for.

6. Ole Miss Rebels (10-1)

Ole Miss still has an outside shot at the SEC Championship Game, but it needs the most to happen of the teams that are still alive. First, it has to beat Mississippi State, then it needs both Alabama and Texas A&M to lose on the final weekend.

Truthfully, Ole Miss might be better served by not playing in the title game. It’s in position right now to host a first-round playoff game, which would be a huge deal in Oxford.

7. Oregon Ducks (10-1)

Oregon has one of the most challenging final games of any team on this list. It will travel to Washington for a big test against Demond Williams and company. And that comes on the back of an emotional win over USC.

It won’t be easy to stay focused, but there’s a ton on the line. Oregon is right around the home-game cut line, so staying on the right side of that will require being good in the regular season finale.

8. Oklahoma Sooners (9-2)

Oklahoma has concluded its stretch against ranked teams, beating three straight ranked teams after losing to Ole Miss to start the run. That’s not to say the finish is any easier, but LSU looked pretty shaky this weekend.

Can the Sooners take advantage of a Tigers team in flux with a coaching change? Injuries have really hurt Oklahoma, which desperately needs to win and start to get healthy before the playoffs.

9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-2)

The word “style points” was floated around quite a bit after the last College Football Playoff rankings were revealed. Safe to say Notre Dame got the memo. The Fighting Irish absolutely demolished the Syracuse Orange 70-7 this weekend.

The final test of the season is a road trip to Stanford, which is coming off a big win against California. Will that be enough to spark the Cardinal and see it push the Fighting Irish to the wire? Crazier things have happened.

10. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2)

Alabama had an easy tune-up game against Eastern Illinois ahead of the annual Iron Bowl rivalry game against Auburn. Good thing, too, because quarterback Ty Simpson looked like he was ironing out some kinks in the game.

Regardless, Alabama knows it doesn’t have much margin for error at all. A win against Auburn locks up a spot in the SEC Championship Game, which could provide the ammo to move all the way into the top four and earn a bye. On the flip side, any loss, potentially even in Atlanta, could leave Alabama vulnerable.

11. BYU Cougars (10-1)

It was an impressive result on Saturday night for BYU, going on the road to face a very strong Cincinnati team and taking care of business. That was the last major test ahead of conference championship weekend.

Up next is a game against UCF before a likely title-game berth against Texas Tech. That game could allow BYU to get back into position to earn a bye, potentially.

12. Utah Utes (9-2)

Utah technically remains alive in the Big 12 title race, however, it would take quite a bit for the Utes to actually reach the title game. For all intents and purposes, what Utah needs to watch is its College Football Playoff ranking, and No. 12 might not be good enough.

The regular season finale is against Kansas, too, so it isn’t likely to provide much juice to the bottom line. Utah needs to be in serious rooting mode (for other teams to lose) going into the final two weeks.

Rest of the CFP Rankings: 13-25

13. Miami Hurricanes (9-2)
14. Vanderbilt Commodores (9-2)
15. Texas Longhorns (8-3)
16. Michigan Wolverines (9-2)
17. Virginia Cavaliers (9-2)*
18. Tennessee Volunteers (8-3)
19. USC Trojans (8-3)
20. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-2)
21. Tulane Green Wave (9-2)*
22. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-3)
23. SMU Mustangs (8-3)
24. Pittsburgh Panthers (8-3)
25. James Madison Dukes (10-1)

* Indicates projected conference champion. Projections are based on CFP ranking, coupled with current chances to reach conference championship game.

First-Round Byes – College Football Playoff

1. Ohio State Buckeyes
2. Indiana Hoosiers
3. Texas A&M Aggies
4. Georgia Bulldogs

Again, unlike last season, the first-round byes are not guaranteed to the four highest-ranked conference champions. That means whichever teams are ranked 1-4 will earn a bye. We still have the Big Ten and the SEC splitting this year’s first-round byes at the moment, though conference championship games are likely to shake up the picture somewhat.

First-Round College Football Playoff Matchups

5. Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. 12. Tulane Green Wave
   Texas Tech is a team that could benefit from two Big Ten and two SEC teams being in the current top four. But as things stand with these projections, we have the Red Raiders hosting a first-round College Football Playoff game against the Tulane Green Wave.
   
6. Ole Miss Rebels vs. 11. Virginia Cavaliers
   Lane Kiffin is in the midst of an intense coaching carousel cycle, presumably wanted by both Florida and LSU. He’s done his best to keep his focus on the team. So far it has worked. Can that continue and earn Ole Miss a home playoff game against the ACC champion — projected to be Virginia?
   
7. Oregon Ducks vs. 10. Alabama Crimson Tide
   As we’ve put together these projections in recent weeks, this keeps coming up as one of the juicier matchups. How much fun would it be to see juggernaut Alabama head to one of college football’s most hostile venues? Yep, sign us up.
   
8. Oklahoma Sooners vs. 9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
   The rankings at this point get very interesting, because the gap between No. 8 and No. 9 is hugely significant. You’re either playing at home or on the road. Right now we have Oklahoma edging out Notre Dame, but keep a close eye on the 8-9 spot when the College Football Playoff rankings come out this week.