College Football Cheat Sheet: Week 6

We have finally reached October. That means conference championship races will now start to take shape. Stakes month in college football has officially arrived before championships are decided in November.

For the second week in a row, there are numerous bye weeks creating a lighter slate but there is still plenty of meat remaining on this college football bone.

KSR’s College Football Cheat Sheet is back to provide a full preview of the weekend that will include the complete TV schedule, top games, gambling content, significant matchups, and other thoughts.

The Slate

Top 10 Games

1. No. 12 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Texas
2. No. 11 Alabama at Texas A&M
3. No. 20 Kentucky at No. 1 Georgia
4. No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 25 Louisville
5. Maryland at No. 4 Ohio State
6. No. 23 Missouri at No. 21 LSU
7. No. 13 Washington State at UCLA
8. No. 24 Fresno State at Wyoming
9. Syracuse at No. 14 North Carolina
10. Rutgers at Wisconsin

College Football Gambling Corner

Want spread plays? We got spread plays.

Subscribe to the KSR YouTube Channel for press conferences, interviews, original shows, fan features, and exclusive content.

— Luckett’s Locks: Finding Value

The Pigskin Preview is presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. We are excited to partner with FanDuel Sportsbook this season. Attention Kentucky! Online sports betting is now live! New customers can place a $5 bet and receive $200 in bonus bets. Head to fanduel.com/pigskin. 

Red River Showdown

The end of an era will occur in the Cotton Bowl on Saturday afternoon. For the final time as Big 12 members, Oklahoma and Texas will meet in the Red River Rivalry. For this final chapter, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey will be in attendance to see the best two teams in the Big 12 go head-to-head.

This is the last thing the Big 12 office wanted when the Longhorns and Sooners announced that they were leaving for the SEC.

Texas looks like one of the best teams in college football. The Horns are the real deal on the line of scrimmage and have a defense that is much better than you think. The same goes for Oklahoma. We are now starting to see a typical Brent Venables defense after some strong recruiting work in both high school and the portal.

This game could come down to which quarterback plays better. Both Dillon Gabriel and Quinn Ewers have been up-and-down but the latter clearly has the better supporting cast.

The best game of the day will get the full-court press and Texas will get another chance to make a statement on a national stage. Will the Longhorns continue their march to a Big 12 title and College Football Playoff appearance? Or can Boomer Sooner play spoiler?

Rivalry football is here.

Tremendous opportunity for Texas A&M

Many wanted to fade Texas A&M after the blowout loss to Miami. Then the Aggies lost starting quarterback Conner Weigman for the season. Yet, that hasn’t stopped Jimbo Fisher‘s team from getting off to a 2-0 SEC start for the first time under his watch.

The Aggies might have the best defensive front in college football and the offense has made real progress under new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino. Former LSU quarterback Max Johnson is more than a competent replacement for Weigman. Fisher has a team that is good enough to win the SEC West.

Over in Tuscaloosa, Nick Saban‘s team has put together consecutive good performances against Ole Miss and Mississippi State. The Tide are going run-heavy with Jalen Milroe at quarterback and the defense is showing signs of improvement. Bama is playing ground-and-pound football again.

There will be a rock fight at Kyle Field on Saturday afternoon with first place in the SEC West on the line. Fisher got a head-to-head win over Saban in the last meeting in College Station and nearly beat the Tide in Bryant-Denny Stadium last season. The dynasty is dead talk will ramp up again with another Alabama loss. However, the Tide could be well on their way to another SEC West title with a win.

We’ve got a huge swing game on the schedule between the Aggies and Crimson Tide.

Georgia’s biggest test

Georgia is still ranked No. 1 and is undefeated. However, the Bulldogs have shown some flaws. The offensive line and tailback rooms are banged-up. The run defense has been surprisingly ineffective. Mike Bobo‘s offense is getting off to very slow starts almost on a weekly basis.

Against Auburn and South Carolina, the Dawgs found themselves in a one-possession game for most of the afternoon. Kentucky is better than both of those teams.

The Wildcats are super explosive on offense and have a top-15 defense. On paper, Kentucky has the edge in the explosive play battle. The game’s best defensive line player is on the road team. Mark Stoops and his team are entering a heavyweight fight with more knockout power than normal. UGA will be challenged on Saturday night at Sanford Stadium.

Do we see a non-explosive Georgia offense become explosive on Saturday night? Does an iffy UGA run defense put the clamps on a Kentucky rush attack that ranks No. 2 nationally in yards per rush and No. 7 nationally in rushing EPA/play? Or does the same Georgia script play out?

A slow start needing a comeback might not work as well against Kentucky. Some signs are telling us that Georgia is on upset alert unless this team that has been sleepwalking all of a sudden wakes up.

Jeff Brohm has set the stage

Perhaps no head coaching cycle from this past offseason’s carousel was praised more by an individual fan base than Jeff Brohm. The former Louisville quarterback and offensive coordinator is a member of the biggest football family in the Derby City and has ignited this fan base. The winning also helps.

Behind an offense that ranks No. 10 in yards per play, Louisville is off to a 5-0 start with four power conference wins. The Cards have gone 3-0 in one-possession games away from home. However, the schedule has been light.

Louisville has not played a top-50 team yet. In front of the program’s first sold out home crowd in a long time, the Cards will play what appears to be the best team on their schedule.

Notre Dame enters this week’s contest with a 4-1 record and a 30-game winning streak over ACC foes in regular-season games. Marcus Freeman‘s second team is well-rounded and can win with offense or defense. The Irish might have the best offensive line in the country, tailback Audric Estime is making an All-American push, and Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman is a huge upgrade at quarterback. In a hangover spot last week, the defense kept Notre Dame in the game before Hartman took over in a two-minute drive in the fourth quarter to win the game.

Saturday night will be a huge test for Brohm’s first team. Is Louisville a legitimate top-25 team or did this team just take advantage of a bad schedule? We will find out on Saturday night.

LSU is on the ropes

Jayden Daniels is playing some elite football at quarterback. Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. are one of the best wideout duos in college football. LSU is scoring 44.0 points per game ranking No. 3 in EPA/play, No. 4 in success rate, and No. 6 in yards per play. The offense is a wagon.

Yet, LSU is 3-2 thanks mostly to some atrocious defense.

Second-year defensive coordinator Matt House is firmly on the hot seat after Florida State, Mississippi State, Arkansas, and Ole Miss have combined to average 36.2 points per game against the Tigers. That should not be happening against a defense with multiple pros in the front seven.

LSU is having some catastrophic issues in the secondary and likely won’t get them fixed at Faurot Field on Saturday afternoon. New offensive coordinator Kirby Moore has ignited this Missouri passing game. Brady Cook has been a top-15 quarterback in college football this season and former five-star recruit Luther Burden III is making a run at All-American honors with 43 receptions for 644 yards and five touchdowns. The sophomore has 11 receptions of 20-plus yards through five games.

A shootout is coming to Columbia. Missouri enters this game with the better defense. There will be a lot of pressure on Daniels and the rest of that LSU offense this weekend. Is Brian Kelly really about to drop to 3-3 in year two.

The biggest game of the Eliah Drinkwitz era has arrived. Can Mizzou cash in and get to 6-0?

College Football Degenerate Under: Purdue at Iowa Under 39.5

Iowa will be appearing almost weekly in this column. Get used to it. For the second week in a row, our degenerate under is calling Iowa City home.

Wisconsin transfer Deacon Hill will get his first start at quarterback for an Iowa offense that is again one of the worst in the Power Five. The Hawkeyes will be hosting a Purdue team that figures to be one of the worst in the Big Ten. Iowa’s defense will clearly be the best unit in this matchup and has the chance to create multiple turnovers against Purdue’s pass-heavy offense.

Expect a rock fight at Kinnick Stadium. The under should be in good shape in this contest if non-offensive touchdowns are avoided. That did not happen last week in Michigan State-Iowa as each team got in the endzone without its offense on the field.

The rest of the college football card

— Oklahoma State is 2-2 and is on the verge of this season getting sideways. However, Mike Gundy‘s team gets to be a home dog on a weekday night. Kansas State is laying double-digit points at T. Boone Pickens Stadium. Don’t be surprised if the Pokes put together their best performance of the season in a big spot.

— Maryland is undefeated and looks like a legitimate top-25 team with a good offense and good defense. Ohio State is trying to make a run at a national title. The over has hit in eight consecutive games in this Big Ten East series. Don’t be surprised if a shootout occurs in Columbus. Can Taulia Tagovailoa produce enough explosive plays to give the Terps a chance in the fourth quarter?

— The ranked road team is an underdog facing the unranked favorite at the Rose Bowl. UCLA is laying points despite the hot start from Washington State’s Air Raid offense. The Bruins have the better defense in this matchup and catch Wazzu for their first road trip. Chip Kelly‘s team needs a big performance or some losses could start piling up in a loaded Pac-12.

— Clemson brought Syracuse back down to earth after a hot start and now the Orange have to travel to Chapel Hill. North Carolina just got wide receiver Tez Walker eligible and is in position to make a run at an ACC championship game appearance. Can Mack Brown‘s team get to 5-0 before a huge home class with Miami next week?

— Speaking of the SEC West race, Ole Miss is still alive after a huge home win over LSU. Now the Rebels will host Arkansas in a Saturday night kickoff in Oxford. The Hogs have lost three consecutive games and things are spiraling in Fayetteville.

Can Sam Pittman‘s team sneak up on Ole Miss? If they don’t, a 4-8 season could be coming despite having KJ Jefferson at quarterback.