College Football Cheat Sheet: Week 7

A huge college football weekend is ahead of us with multiple swing games on the slate. If Thursday night taught us anything, this could be quite a ride.

After blowing an 11-point fourth quarter lead, Houston got one more shot at victory following a West Virginia celebration penalty. The Cougars ended the game with an answered prayer and a walk-off touchdown.

Well, then. The Big 12 has yet again delivered another wild finish and officially kicked off what could be a wild Week 7. Enough of the small talk. Come get ready for the weekend with KSR’s College Football Cheat Sheet.

The Slate

Top 10 Games

1. No. 8 Oregon at No. 7 Washington
2. No. 10 USC at No. 21 Notre Dame
3. No. 25 Miami at No. 12 North Carolina
4. UCLA at No. 15 Oregon State
5. Texas A&M at No. 19 Tennessee
6. Iowa at Wisconsin
7. Missouri at No. 24 Kentucky
8. Tulane at Memphis
9. Georgia Southern at James Madison
10. NC State at No. 17 Duke

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Bo Nix vs. Michael Penix Jr.

Oregon-Washington is one of the most underappreciated rivalries in college football. Husky Stadium is one of the most underappreciated stadium atmospheres in college football. Kalen DeBoer and Dan Lanning have gone a combined 31-5 in their first 36 games as Power Five head coaches. In a top-10 matchup in Seattle with College GameDay in town, we will get a potential College Football Playoff elimination game on Oct. 14.

The matchup between the Huskies and the Ducks will not be boring.

In last year’s meeting, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. (408 passing yards, 11.7 yards per attempt, 2 touchdowns) outdueled Oregon’s Bo Nix (280 passing yards, 10.0 yards per attempt 55 rushing yards, 3 total touchdowns) in a thrilling 38-35 win. Now we get to see the rematch.

The offenses are the story in this game. Expect points in bunches in this matchup.

An easy argument can be made that these are the best two offenses in college football. Now we’ll get to see which quarterback can win a shootout. Oregon enters the game with a rushing and defense advantage. The Ducks have a top-five ground attack led by Bucky Irving (393 yards, 7.9 yards per rush, 4 touchdowns) and Jordan James (297 yards, 8.7 yards per rush, 7 touchdowns) and top-20 SP+ defense. Washington’s defense is No. 26 and the ground attack lacks big-play pop.

However, DeBoer’s team will have the crowd behind their back and Penix (30.9% explosive pass rate, 11.2 yards per attempt) can hit a haymaker at any point. The former Indiana transfer could become the Heisman Trophy favorite after Saturday.

Oregon vs. Washington is the biggest must-watch game of the season to this point.

Can USC keep winning with this defense?

This shouldn’t surprise you but yet another Lincoln Riley defense is struggling to create stops. Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch is under a lot of pressure at USC as the Trojans rank No. 111 in EPA/play, No. 102 in rushing success rate, and have put three lackluster weeks together.

USC is vulnerable following a one-possession win over Colorado and a double overtime win over Arizona. Can Notre Dame take advantage?

The Fighting Irish limp into this Week 7 matchup after a brutal slate that included three consecutive top-30 opponents. Notre Dame let a home win slip through their fingers against Notre Dame before needing some Sam Hartman heroics against Duke. Marcus Freeman‘s team appeared to run out of gas last week at Louisville as Hartman’s struggles against the Cardinals continued.

A strong rushing attack was totally shut down against an ACC foe and that must change this weekend. Can Notre Dame run the football? If they can, they should be able to keep up on the scoreboard. However, if this Irish offense continues to falter, USC could turn this matchup into a runaway victory thanks to Caleb Williams holding the controller.

A huge game for both sides. A 4-3 start for Freeman in year two would not be a good look after the Irish lost to Marshall and Stanford last season as a double-digit home favorite. If USC cannot win, that likely takes the Trojans again out of the College Football Playoff despite having the best player in college football for the second season in a row.

Much is on the line in South Bend.

Biggest game of Mario Cristobal’s head coaching career

I might be going over the top, but it does not feel like it. After finally gaining some momentum in year two at his alma mater, Mario Cristobal threw out a ton of goodwill for the gross mismanagement in the fourth quarter against Georgia Tech. Instead getting into a victory formation and taking a knee, the Canes fumbled the ball and watched the Yellow Jackets score a crazy touchdown two plays later to give head coach Brent Key a signature win in year one.

Instead of an undefeated showdown with North Carolina in Week 7, all anyone wanted to focus on this week was the coaching malpractice we saw from Cristobal and offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson who publicly fell on the sword for his boss.

Miami must show some fight on Saturday night in Chapel Hill. The Canes have lost four consecutive games to the Tar Heels. Mack Brown‘s program is slowly becoming Florida State’s top competition in the ACC. Cristobal’s team has a chance to stop. But more importantly, Miami needs to show that last week was a fluke.

The U embarrassed itself last week. Cristobal’s entire first year was also an embarrassment. That cannot keep happening if this program hopes to turn the corner under the former FIU and Oregon head coach. A lot is on the line for Cristobal this week.

Might be now or never for Jimbo Fisher

Texas A&M had a golden opportunity last week. Hosting a flawed Alabama team at Kyle Field, a win would’ve put the Aggies in the driver’s seat in the SEC West. Instead, Jimbo Fisher‘s team lost another one-possession game to Nick Saban. Some worry could now be creeping into the football facility in College Station.

The Aggies (4-2, 2-1) now must hit the road to play a Tennessee team that has been excellent as a home favorite (10-4 ATS) under Josh Heupel. Another loss for A&M could send this team spiraling toward a 7-5 finish despite having a borderline top-five roster in college football. Expect the job pressure and hot seat talk to ramp up if Fisher’s team cannot win on Saturday afternoon at Neyland Stadium.

On the other side, Tennessee (4-1, 2-1) is having a lot of issues getting the passing game rolling. The Vols are winning with the run game and defense. I’m not sure anyone saw that coming this year, but the schedule is about to get much tougher. With a trip to Alabama on deck, the Vols are in danger of falling to 4-3 when traveling to Kentucky in Week 9. With three more road trips on the slate and a home game against Georgia, a fall to 7-5 is certainly on the table.

A huge swing game in the SEC will be played in Knoxville.

College Football Degenerate Under: Iowa at Wisconsin Under 34.5

Iowa is featured in the degenerate under again this week at KSR’s College Football Cheat Sheet. Who saw that coming?

In last week’s 20-13 win over Purdue, the Hawkeyes produced zero completions to the wide receiver position as new starting quarterback Deacon Hill completed only 6 of 21 passes. Now Kirk Ferentz’s team hits the road for what could be the de facto Big Ten West title game. Hill will be facing his old team in Week 7.

Similar to Iowa, the Wisconsin Badgers also are having a ton of passing game issues under new offensive coordinator Phil Longo. SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai is only averaging 6.4 yards per attempt and has only thrown three touchdowns. Luke Fickell‘s team is running the football well with Braelon Allen (472 yards, 6.5 yards per rush, 7 touchdowns, 57% success rate), but the passing game is again holding this program back.

In a matchup between two top-20 defenses, scoring points should be difficult. With 15+ mph winds in the forecast, that could make moving the football even tougher. Get ready for a slugfest where the first one to 17 points likely wins. A non-offensive touchdown could be needed to leave Camp Randall Stadium with a victory.

The rest of the college football card

— The two best teams in the American to this point in the season will meet on Friday night. Tulane travels to Memphis in a matchup between a pair of 4-1 teams. To this point, an argument can be made that Memphis is having the better season and should be favored. Head coach Ryan Silverfield has a chance to land a monster home win. The fourth-year head coach had a warm seat entering the season but that could go away after this game.

— James Madison is not eligible for the postseason, but the Dukes are quickly emerging as the top team in the Sun Belt this season. The former FCS program has already knocked off preseason favorites Troy and South Alabama. Now they’ll host 4-1 Georgia Southern for a chance to land another quality Sun Belt win. This might be the best team in the Group of Five, and they’re not eligible for the postseason due to a stupid NCAA rule.

— Florida and South Carolina both need a big win. Shane Beamer‘s squad has all kinds of defensive issues, and the Gators have been horrible on the road. The loser of this SEC East matchup could be well on their way to a 4-8/5-7 season. The winner could salvage the season over the last six weeks. We’ve got a huge swing game in Columbia. Feels like Billy Napier needs this win more than Beamer.

— In every facet, Louisville looks like a better football team than Pittsburgh. One team is undefeated with five power conference wins, and the other has not beat a power conference opponent. Yet, that betting spread is hovering around a touchdown. A huge letdown spot could be coming for the Cardinals. Will Pat Narduzzi‘s team take advantage?

— The Tiger Bowl will take place Saturday night in Death Valley, but this year’s edition has not created much hype. LSU cannot stop a nosebleed, and Auburn’s offense has all kinds of issues in year one under Hugh Freeze. Will Jayden Daniels make another Heisman Trophy statement in this big game?

— Oregon at Washington is rightfully getting most of the Pac-12 oxygen this week, but there’s another huge game taking place in the Pacific Northwest. UCLA’s top-five defense is hitting the road to face a very good Oregon State offense. The contest between the Bruins and Beavers will be an elimination game in this conference race. This contest is getting a prime-time window on FOX in what should be an extremely competitive matchup.