Week 6 Preview: Home dogs could be howling

Adam Luckettby:Adam Luckett10/07/22

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As we reach the halfway point of the season (this is going way too fast), good things are happening in college football. October brings some anxiety, and that is even more gassed up than usual due to a handful of QB injuries throughout the landscape and a bunch of jobs unexpectedly opening early.

We’re set for another fun weekend of football after UCF got the party started on Wednesday with an impressive conference win over SMU. Unfortunately, this week did not deliver on the promises given in the preseason.

Both Oklahoma-Texas and Alabama-Texas A&M were supposed to be huge games with conference title stakes. Neither will be that this weekend, but we still have an excellent slate with some great opportunities for some home underdogs in big games.

Let’s dive into what could be a great weekend as cool fall temperatures are finally starting to arrive.

The Slate

Nebraska at Rutgers (7:00 ET Friday, FS1)

— Houston at Memphis (7:30 ET Friday, ESPN2)

— Colorado State at Nevada (10:00 ET Friday, FS1)

— UNLV at San Jose State (10:30 ET Friday, CBS Sports Network)

— Louisville at Virginia (Noon, ACC Network)

— Arkansas at No. 23 Mississippi State (Noon, SEC Network)

— Missouri at Florida (Noon, ESPNU)

— No. 8 Tennessee at No. 25 LSU (Noon, ESPN)

— No. 17 TCU at No. 19 Kansas (Noon, FS1)

Texas vs. Oklahoma (Noon, ABC)

— No. 4 Michigan at Indiana (Noon, FOX)

— Purdue at Maryland (Noon, Big Ten Network)

— Texas Tech at No. 7 Oklahoma State (3:30, FS1)

Auburn at No. 2 Georgia (3:30, CBS)

— No. 11 Utah at No. 18 UCLA (3:30, FOX)

— No. 3 Ohio State at Michigan State (4:00, ABC)

— No. 21 Washington at Arizona State (4:00, Pac-12 Network)

— North Carolina at Miami (4:00, ESPN2)

— No. 9 Ole Miss at Vanderbilt (4:00, SEC Network)

South Carolina at No. 13 Kentucky (7:30, SEC Network)

— No. 20 Kansas State at Iowa State (7:30, ESPNU)

— Washington State at No. 6 USC (7:30, FOX)

— Iowa at Illinois (7:30, Big Ten Network)

— No. 5 Clemson at Boston College (7:30, ABC)

— No. 16 BYU vs. Notre Dame (7:30, NBC)

— Army at No. 15 Wake Forest (7:30, Raycom/ESPN3)

— Texas A&M at No. 1 Alabama (8:00, CBS)

Florida State at No. 14 NC State (8:00, ACC Network)

— No. 12 Oregon at Arizona (9:00, Pac-12 Network)

— Oregon State at Stanford (11:00, ESPN)

Gambling corner

The picks against the spread content is not slowing down at Kentucky Sports Radio. Drew Franklin is riding quite the hot streak at Pick 3.

Over at Luckett’s Locks, we have another six-pack of ATS selections as we are ready to get to the window this Saturday.

Tennessee’s rat poison game

Two weeks ago, Tennessee hosted Florida and won a thrilling SEC football game by outlasting the double-digit road underdog in a shootout at Neyland Stadium. Following the big win, Hendon Hooker was named the September Heisman by many, and the popular take seems to be that the Vols are the clear No. 3 team in the SEC.

For two long weeks on Rocky Top, the Big Orange has heard about how good they are. Now they must hit the road and play LSU in a sneaky morning kickoff in Death Valley. This smells like a trap.

A consensus is building that Tennessee will handle their business due to the game being early in the day. However, Josh Heupel’s team is up against one of the best underdogs in the sport. LSU is 6-2-1 ATS in its last eight games as a home dog with only Alabama covering in Death Valley. Brian Kelly is 6-1 ATS in his last seven games as a home dog with an outright win against Mississippi State earlier this season.

All signs and trends seem to be pointing to an LSU win. The Tigers have a solid defense, and Jayden Daniels is a dynamic off-script playmaker who can make the Vols pay for playing with numbers in their pressure packages.

We’re set to have a fascinating game in the noon window between LSU and Tennessee.

Pac-12 is making noise

Did you know that the Pac-12 has five teams inside the AP Top 25? Did you know that two of them will face each other this weekend in a Pac-12 South clash and neither is USC?

We’re seeing a resurgence from the west coast conference and on Saturday No. 18 UCLA will host No. 11 Utah in one of the biggest games of Week 6.

Cameron Rising and Dorian Thompson-Robinson are excellent college quarterbacks who are leading top-10 offenses. Utah appears to have the better defense, but the Utes struggled mightily the last time facing a dual-threat quarterback the caliber of Thompson-Robinson.

The Rose Bowl should give us an excellent college football game as the Pac-12 is getting the job done. Can this conference finally get a team back in the College Football Playoff? UCLA has a chance to get the biggest win of the Chip Kelly era on Saturday on the heels of another top 25 home win.

Rock Chalk Championship?

All of a sudden, Kansas is 5-0 with two conference wins and in the AP Top 25. While Baylor, Oklahoma, and Texas are all taking loses, the race for the two spots in the Big 12 Championship Game are wide open. The Jayhawks could make a statement on Saturday afternoon.

“College GameDay” is coming to Lawrence for the first time this weekend, and there should be a wild crowd on-hand at Memorial Stadium when Sonny Dykes brings his first TCU squad into town. Expect some offensive fireworks.

Jalon Daniels and Max Duggan are putting up video game numbers, and each defense in this contest has some holes. There should be some offensive fireworks on Saturday afternoon as Kansas is just one win away from bowl eligibility.

At this point, it’s going to be hard for Lance Leipold to not bring home every national coaching award in the postseason.

Luckett’s notebook

–The biggest storyline of Week 6 could be all the different QB injuries to prominent players throughout the country. Bryce Young (Alabama), Malik Cunningham (Louisville), and KJ Jefferson (Arkansas) are game-time decisions. Will Levis (Kentucky) is highly questionable. Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma) also appears to be a game-time decision while Quinn Ewers (Texas) is expected to return for Red River. Can these teams survive if their star player is unable to go?

— The coaching carousel is already in a good jog at this point, and there are two coaches to watch closely this weekend. At Louisville, Scott Satterfield has started a pivotal year at 2-3 and is fresh off an embarrassing loss to Boston College. If the Cards fall to Virginia this weekend it could be time to pull the plug heading into the bye week. At Auburn, Bryan Harsin is 3-2 but let another big game slip away at home last week against LSU. The Tigers are 30-point underdogs to heated rival Georgia, and it’s expected to get ugly at Sanford Stadium. There is one more game (at Ole Miss) before the bye, but the end feels inevitable on the Plains. We could see some action here soon at these two spots.

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2024-05-04