Penn State Mailbag: RPM predictions and who deserves to move up in the Class of 2023 rankings?

Penn State and coaches across the country have one more weekend remaining before the February dead period ends next Tuesday.

For so many schools, next weekend will be a very busy recruiting weekend, as prospects across the country will hit the road again to check out some of their top options. However, that won’t be the case for Penn State, as spring break is scheduled for March 5-12. With campus shutdown, some members of the staff are set to leave town. March 20 is shaping up to be the first real visit weekend for the Nittany Lions. We’re still monitoring for any potential visits between March 1-4, but right now, nothing is confirmed.

For today’s mailbag, we focus on two questions. The first is about On3’s Recruiting Prediction Machine.

The On3 database shows Penn State as 97% probability of landing Ta’Mere Robinson and Rodney Gallagher. How accurate do you think the current projections are? Is Pitt the biggest roadblock to landing both of them? – Beaverman72

Currently, Ta’Mere Robinson sits at 97.2 percent, while Rodney Gallagher is 93.8. Those percentages are as high as they are because I logged an RPM predictions for both. I picked Gallagher to end up at Penn State back in December, while Robinson was logged earlier this month.

The On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine already had Penn State in the 70th percentile before I logged those picks. That’s mainly because of the amount of visits they’ve taken. Robinson has been to Penn State five times since on-campus visits were allowed again, six if you include the 2019 White Out game. Gallagher has taken four visits. Both have been to Penn State more than any other school.

However, it also considers data from previous years. The RPM acknowledges the success Penn State has had not just in the Pittsburgh region, but in Pennsylvania and even specific schools. For these two players, Penn State doesn’t have much history at Brashear and Laurel Highlands, but it will bump up players at a school like McDonogh in Maryland because of the success Penn State has had there. You can learn more about everything that goes into the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine here.

Link: Penn State quickly becoming a serious player with QB JJ Kohl

When you then add in a prediction from someone like myself, that’s when you’ll see those high percentages. I also have the ability to assign a confidence number to my pick. It ranges from 0 to 100. For Robinson and Gallagher, I logged 70 for both. Since making those picks, I would actually probably bump up Gallagher and Robinson to an 80. I may make that change here soon.

With that said, Gallagher definitely wants to take a few more visits after his basketball season. Michigan and Notre Dame are both circled on his list. But even after visiting those schools, it’s hard for me to see anyone surpassing Penn State. I feel the same for Robinson.

I tend to play it a bit more conservative than some my colleagues, but I do feel pretty good about those two ending up at Penn State. To me, 70 or 80 percent is probably a bit more accurate than 97.2 – it’s recruiting, and things can change quickly – but the RPM is also powered by artificial intelligence. In a year from now, it’ll be more accurate than it is now. The same can be said in 2024, 2025, etc.

I think it’s a great tool. It’s only going to get better in the the years go on.

Give us the most under the radar, possible underrated recruit involved with PSU? – Chester Copperpot

With it still being February, there are a ton of changes still to come in the rankings. If you could look back on where some of Penn State’s 2022 signees sat at this time last year, I think some would be surprised at how much the rankings change throughout the year.

I briefly hit on this last week and my pick was quarterback Marcus Stokes. I expect him to be a high three-star at On3 when rankings are updated next week. He’s starting to pick up more Power Five offers, with Indiana, Pitt and Virginia Tech all offering this month. I also know there are some other major programs who are hoping to get him on campus this spring and/or watch him workout during the spring evaluation period. I think the spring evaluation period could prove to be a massive moment in Stokes’ recruitment.

When we look back, Penn State offering when they did is going to look like a shrewd move. Stokes and JJ Kohl are the two quarterbacks I think Penn State fans should be focused on now.

Link: Penn State is on pace for one of the best offensive line classes in the country

But again, with it being so early, there are plenty of players who are ranked lower at On3 and other sites compared to what Penn State believes. I think two of their commits, cornerback Lamont Payne and offensive linemen Josh Miller, should both be seriously considered for four-star ratings. When I talk to contacts in Lasch, I get the impression that Penn State believes Miller is just as good of a prospect as Jven Williams, who of course earned a five-star rating Thursday. Payne has a documented 4.55-second 40 and shuttle times, and is only getting better. Add in the fact that he played with an injury for a good portion of last season and I’m not sure he’s gotten the credit he deserves quite yet.

Two others to acknowledge quick are defensive tackle Justin Benton, from Covington, Ga., and defensive end Mason Robinson, from Baltimore. I’ve discussed Benton a lot over the past month or so, including in this mailbag. I think Penn State is pretty high on him currently. He’s also planning to visit this spring and could realistically end up here.

I also believe Robinson continues to move up Penn State’s recruiting board. He’s a three-star player at 247, a four-star player at Rivals and unranked currently at On3, although that should be changing here soon. I don’t know where exactly he’s going to end in regards to his rating, but I do believe he’s a player that’s higher on Penn State’s board than most fans probably realize.