Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Ohio State

A look at Saturday’s Purdue-Ohio State game from a gambling perspective.

Column went 2-0 on sides (Spread, Total), but got greedy and burned on the player props
as Bryce Underwood looked HORRENDOUS. Shoutout the Boiler defense for showing up.
Boilers cover and the total goes under.

Covering The Tracks: Ohio State

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00 am on 11/7/25 via BetMGM:
Current spread: Purdue +29.5 (Opened Purdue +28.5).
Moneyline: Purdue +2000, Ohio State -6500
1H Spread: Purdue +16.5, O/U 26.5
Over/Under: 48.5 (Opened 49.5)

Season Records ATS

Purdue: 4-5 ATS, O/U 2-7
Ohio State: 7-0-1 ATS, O/U 3-5

Betting Percentage Breakdown (AKA, the Splits)

Bets: 21% on Purdue, 86% on over
Money: 9% on Purdue, 75% on over

Executive Summary

Purdue showed some competency last week and almost, ALMOST, stole a win from a ranked team in Ann Arbor. The loss of Mockobee hurts, but the Thomas/Harris tandem looked more than capable last week and added some flashes of speed. Ohio State has covered (or pushed) in every single game this year. So… they’re due for a non-cover. Everybody is on the Buckeyes which should come as a surprise to no one. Additionally, everyone is taking the over as well. The question may come down to whether or not Purdue can score a single touchdown on this Buckeyes defense. Purdue has played Spoilermakers to the Buckeyes in Ross-Ade a couple times before, why not again? Max Klare makes his return to West Lafayette, and one would expect him to show out.

Trend Analysis for Ohio State
· UNLV was 1-2 ATS as a home underdog under Coach Barry Odom.
· UNLV was 3-4 ATS after a loss under Odom.
· Purdue is 1-1 ATS as a home underdog under Odom (Purdue closed as a favorite against
Rutgers).
· Purdue is 2-4 ATS after a loss under Odom.
· Ohio State is 16-10-2 ATS as an away favorite under Coach Ryan Day.
· Ohio State is 45-24-3 ATS after a win under Day.
· The over was 2-1 when UNLV was a home underdog under Odom.
· The over was 6-1 after a UNLV loss under Odom.
· The over is 1-1 when Purdue is a home underdog under Odom.
· The over is 2-4 after a loss under Odom.
· The over is 14-13-1 when Ohio State is an away favorite under Day.

· The over is 37-34-1 after an Ohio State win under Day.

Miscellaneous Factors

· Spoilermakers. Outside of Michigan, I think it is probably a very small list of teams who can
say they have beaten Ohio State five times since 2000. Purdue is on that list (arguably should be 6 with the 2012 game but I digress). Weirdly enough, Purdue has played Ohio State as well as anyone, outside the traditional football big ten contenders. We have seen some crazy upsets by Purdue in years past, especially against the Buckeyes… but that is not going to happen Saturday. Purdue would need divine intervention, and I am not sure even that would be enough. A cover is certainly not out of the question.

· Return of the Max. Max Klare makes his return to West Lafayette Saturday with his brother
still donning a Purdue jersey on the opposite sideline. Max’s season thus far has been relatively lackluster. He is on pace for just over 300 regular season receiving yards and 2 touchdowns this season, which would be significantly less than his 685 and 4 touchdowns from a year ago. One would assume the NIL funds and team success more than makes up for the decline in production. One would imagine Ryan Day uses Saturday as an excuse to get Max the ball.

· Good teams win, Great teams cover. So far this season, not a single Ohio State opponent has covered the spread against the Buckeyes. Ohio State has put on one of the more impressive seasons to date, not just beating teams, but beating them with relative ease. 24 against Penn State, 34 at Wisconsin, 18 at ranked Illinois, etc. Julian Sayin has come on as of late, but really the defense has been the covering machine. Only two teams this year have broken double digits against the Buckeyes. If Purdue can be the third, a cover seems inevitable.

Gambling Analysis

Numbers: Spread has really stayed stagnant so far. It has gone as high as 30 but has really hung around that 29.5. 91% of money on Ohio State is absurd. The lack of massive movement on the spread seems to suggest the sportsbooks are comfortable taking all that Ohio State money. That seems crazy to me. We watched Ohio State come into Ross Ade two years ago under similar circumstances and beat the doors off Purdue 41-7. There is less money on the over than the Buckeyes spread, but it is still significant to the over. Public bettors seem to think Ohio State may score 49 themselves, and it is hard to blame them. Bryce Underwood really looked bad against a porous Purdue secondary. I am pessimistic that the Purdue secondary can replicate that. Contrarian logic still tells us to back the sportsbooks and so we will follow Purdue and the Under from a numbers standpoint. EDGE: Purdue Spread, Under

Trends: There is still not much trend analysis for Purdue under Coach Odom. There is simply
too small of a sample. Ohio State, however, has been really good ATS after wins. They are
better than average ATS as an away favorite, but it is that trend after a win that is really strong. The O/U shows almost zero trend lean with both teams suggesting an almost 50/50 trend. Ohio State has covered in every game they have played this year, except for one in which they pushed. Are the Buckeyes due for a non-cover? Bettors seem to not think so. EDGE: Ohio State spread, Push

Situation: Purdue showed some flashes of competency last week. A shanked punt before half sealed their fate but otherwise played well enough to win for the most part. The defense looked way better, the question becomes is that a credit to Purdue or an indictment of Underwood and the Michigan offense. The public still seems to have a negative view on Purdue, but this really could just be more of an endorsement of Ohio State. They have literally been a cash cow. Place a bet on them so far this year and they have printed money. This does give Purdue a situational advantage. Ohio State is coming off a big win against Penn State and will start to set its eyes on Michigan in a couple weeks. The Ohio State defense has been unbelievable this year, and the question really becomes can Purdue muster any points on them. The situational lean will be a push, just because Ohio State’s defense has been so good, and Purdue’s for the most part, has been so bad. EDGE: Purdue spread, Push.

Total Analysis: Purdue is fresh off a cover last week… which makes me worried about a
second one in a row. What I cannot understand is how the books will take 90%+ of money on Ohio State and only move the line a point or so. To me, that signifies they are really comfortable with Purdue spread and taking Ohio State money. But how?!?! Ohio State is undefeated ATS and is the #1 team in the nation. A 30-point win is just not crazy at all. Purdue’s 2021 team lost by 28 at Ohio State. Unless Ohio State just comes out unmotivated and lazy, which is not outside the realm of possibility, it seems inevitable that this will be a 42-point win, similar to the last two outings. Even still, the numbers and the situational spot tells us to back the Boilers spread. We will take the under as well, just because the over is getting so much action. A 49-0 Ohio State win would be a dagger, so I will buy to 49.5 and take the under. Ohio State 38, Purdue 10.

Official Plays: 1 Units Purdue +29.5 (-110), 1 Unit Under 49.5 (-130), .25 Units Ohio State to
win by 25-30 (+450). 1 Unit Max Klare over receiving yards 30.5 (-115). .25 Unit Antonio
Harris ATD (+500). .25 Unit Malachi Thomas ATD (+425). .5 Unit Max Klare Anytime TD
+210.

UNIT COUNTER YTD: -3.87 Units (does not include bonus bets unless listed in official plays)

Bonus Bets: Nitro Tuggle Anytime TD +550. I still would take the running backs, but if you
need a longer shot, Nitro. If Purdue can score on its scripted first drive, there will be a TON of FTD value.

BetMGM.

Welcome to the 2025 edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information that Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by BetMGM sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook. Disclaimer for those who gamble: ensure you manage your bankroll effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams is. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, if Purdue is -4.5 against an opponent, a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 4.5 points.  It is worth noting that the sportsbooks are in the money-making business.  So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.

Odds and How to Read Them: The ability to read odds provides a gambler with insight into how a sportsbook, also known as “Vegas,” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bets will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds mean that to win $10, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are favorable, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for unfavorable odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneyline odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115, then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -4.5 (-4.5 in my example above; obviously, this number would change week to week) or, hypothetically, the other team +4.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by five or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats the hypothetical team above by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Purdue did not cover.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe fewer than 49 points will be scored and vice versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers who have demonstrated a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbooks use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book usually are -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. To win $10, you need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that would be helpful, please let me know.