Texas ranks No. 19 in returning production according to ESPN, ahead of all but one Big 12 team
In recent offseasons, ESPN’s Bill Connelly has built a formula quantifying which of the now 133 Football Bowl Subdivision teams returns the most production from the previous year. With the advent of the transfer portal, the one-time exception, COVID-19 eligibility relief, and other constantly-changing aspects of roster management, there are more moving parts than ever when trying to nail down who exactly is returning to a team from year-to-year.
[Get Inside Texas Plus until the start of the 2023 season for $29.99!]
Connelly’s admirable effort for the 2023 season, released Tuesday, compiles and weighs different statistical data to determine returning production on offense and defense. Offensive returning production is heavily influenced by returning snaps on the offensive line, making up almost half of the equation. Returning wide receiver and tight end receiving yards make up almost a quarter of the formula for offense, and returning passing yards has a similar weight. Returning running back rushing yards holds only 6 percent of the weight.
Defensive returning production is heavily weighted toward total tackles, with 70 percent of the equation determined by that stat. Returning passes defended and tackles for loss combine to make up about one quarter of the formula. Returning sacks are just a mere 4 percent in the weighted equation.
With 10 returning starters on offense and the only significant departures being the two leading running backs responsible for the statistic weighed least by the equation, it makes sense for Texas to find itself in a good position in these rankings. The Longhorns are No. 19 in terms of total returning production behind only Kansas and Wyoming in terms of teams on its 2023 schedule or in the Big 12.
That No. 19 ranking’s components are the No. 3 offense (85 percent) and the No. 68 defense (63 percent) in terms of returning production, good for a team average of 74 percent.
Compared to teams on its schedule and in the Big 12, the Longhorns, Jayhawks, Wyoming Cowboys, and Rice Owls are in a different echelon. Kansas is No. 2 in the ranking behind only Florida State, with the Jayhawks ranked first in terms of offensive returning production. Wyoming, who returned 34 percent of its 2021 production for the 2022 season, rose to No. 4 with 83 percent of its production returning for the 2023 campaign. Rice sits two places behind Texas at No. 21.
A significant gap follows the Owls until the next team on Texas’ schedule or a Big 12 member appears.
- No. 51 UCF
- No. 64 Texas Tech
- No. 66 West Virginia
- No. 67 Iowa State
- No. 70 BYU
- No. 76 Kansas State
- No. 77 Oklahoma
- No. 82 Houston
- No. 89 Oklahoma State
- No. 100 Baylor
- No. 118 TCU
- No. 124 Cincinnati
- No. 125 Alabama
Texas won’t face Cincinnati, UCF, Oklahoma State, or West Virginia during the regular season. The manageable schedule was one of the factors that had Connelly describing the Longhorns as one of the teams most likely to improve upon their 2022 campaign, even following a No. 7 finish in his 2022 SP+ ratings.
One good thing about the Florida State hype: It might distract us from the Texas hype! The Longhorns went just 8-5 in 2022, but they wooed virtually every computer ranking with a combination of close losses (their five defeats were all by a touchdown or less) and random displays of brilliance (they beat five bowl teams by an average of 43-18 and won at Big 12 champ Kansas State). Game management might still be an issue in 2023, but experience won’t be: They lose star back Bijan Robinson but return virtually everyone else on offense, including quarterback Quinn Ewers. A majority of the defense is back, too.
Bill Connelly
Other teams deemed likely to improve were Florida State, Michigan, Texas A&M, Missouri, USC, Utah, and Washington.
The most jarring numbers from Connelly’s list are Kansas at No. 2 and the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide near the bottom of the list for the entire FBS at No. 125. The Jayhawks added nine transfers in the recent window. They also returned most of their receiving corps, both quarterbacks who saw playing time in 2022, starting running back Devin Neal, leading tackler Kenny Logan, and leading pass-defender Cobee Bryant from their bowl-eligible season.
For Texas’ future SEC cohort, quarterback Bryce Young and several difference-makers from Tuscaloosa are off to the NFL. The extended period of time without an offensive or defensive coordinator didn’t affect Nick Saban enough to prevent him from signing the No. 1 high school recruiting class, but it put a damper on his transfer portal efforts. Only two have joined the Tide program so far. That led to Connelly calling the Crimson Tide one of the most likely to regress this year despite being named the No. 5 team in ESPN’s way-too-early 2023 rankings.
Two Big 12 teams named as likely to regress were the two who appeared in the Big 12 Championship. TCU ranks No. 118 in returning production while K-State is No. 76 in the same rankings.
Other teams in that category were UTSA and Iowa.
Returning production is only part of how Connelly configures his popular SP+ rankings, and he announced the full 2023 projections will run next week.
Texas’ strong recruiting and high marks in the previous season’s SP+ rankings, paired with the No. 19 ranking in terms of returning production, should have Texas sitting pretty in the advanced stat in a few weeks with today’s reveal as evidence.
