Texas tips off SEC play against struggling Mississippi State at home (5PM CST, SEC Network)

Christmas may be over, but my favorite time of the year, as for most people, is early January!

Why is that?

Conference play for college basketball starts. As Ice Cube famously said, “Today [is] a good day.”

Texas’ first game of SEC play is against one of their weakest opponents in Mississippi State, a team that sits at 8-5 overall with some bad losses as well as close calls against mid-major – and even low major – competition. Texas hasn’t been all-too impressive to start the season either, but they did show up better in the pre-conference slate than the Bulldogs did.

Mississippi State roster

I have mentioned their struggles, but the Bulldogs are not devoid of talent. They’re led on offense by all-SEC lead guard Josh Hubbard, who averages 21.3 points per game and is absolutely lethal as an off-the-bounce shooter despite being undersized (5-foot-10). Outside of Hubbard, though, the have just one other double-digit scorer in 6-foot-2 guard Jayden Epps (15.9 points); the lack of size in the back court means bigger perimeter players like Tramon Mark and Simeon Wilcher, even Dailyn Swain to an extent, can take advantage.

7-footer Quincy Ballard leads the team in rebounding (7.5 per game), while versatile wing Shawn Jones is on the floor mostly as defensive menace on the ball. Ja’Borri McGhee is another player that gets plenty of run time, mostly for his shooting ability, as he averages 9.8 points per game and hits a blistering 44.7% from beyond the arc.

Chris Jans’ offensive game plan

Mississippi State runs a four-out offense that emphasizes spacing using simple entry actions to start off possessions, including dribble handoffs and high ball screens. They want to get the defense moving and force mistakes so they can exploit those mistakes; if the opponent doesn’t commit on the first couple of actions, they will reset the offense and try again.

It’s not exactly a high-flying or sexy system, but it can be frustrating to guard against because several players are asked to make reads as opposed to one particular lead initiator. This is not to be confused with a motion offense, either – it’s not nearly as free flowing and is much more deliberate. Nearly every half-court possession will include some form of a pick-and-roll action, typically in the high area outside of the three-point line in order to force defenders out of position.

Jans wants shots at the rim over anything else, unless it’s an elite scorer like Josh Hubbard, who has the green light from almost anywhere. The rest of his roster will attack the basket and try to aggressively crash the offensive glass, which is another component to his offensive system. They are 40th in total rebounds overall, which points to ability in this category on both ends of the floor.

Chris Jans defensive game plan

More than he is known for his offense, Jans is known for his defense, which is an aggressive man-to-man system with heavy ball pressure that relies a lot on help defense as well. Though aggressive, they don’t take risks on the ball, meaning they would rather force a driver into help than try to strip the ball away.

Off the ball, the defense stunts heavily and jumps into passing lanes, which requires quick recovery; they don’t trap or over help, but they want to wear out the opposing offense by forcing them into multiple directions with their handle. They want to disrupt at the point of attack more than anything else, and they are very physical on ball screen coverage and switches, trying to bump the opposing player without fouling.

Their close outs are short, aiming to force a pass away rather than contest the shot. They do not fly by on these closeouts, either, as they don’t want to force their other defenders to help off the ball on drives, which happens after being too aggressive in such situations.

This is not the same as a “no middle” defense because it does not have the same rules as far as allowing potential drives down the middle of the lane; Jans only resents these drives if they result in clean looks at the rim. If the big man defensively maintains verticality, then they can contest these shots, and certain drives in the paint are acceptable.

The defense overall is designed to get in an opponent’s head, force hesitations in decision-making, and make them overall question things that should be second-nature. It could provide problems for Sean Miller’s team today if they were lax with their preparation.

How Texas stacks up

In order to get to the Mississippi State defense early, it’s likely Miller action stacks to start many possessions, as well as trying to get to them in transition and attacking with drag screens before the defense is set. These action stacks in the half court could help disrupt the rhythm of the Bulldogs defense, neutralizing pressures without turning the game into a free-for-all.

They will also surely get the ball inside to Matas Vokietaitis with two ideas in mind: (a) simple and easy scoring as well as (b) getting State’s only really seasoned big man, Ballard, into foul trouble early so that they can exploit the middle of the floor. Jans’ system works tirelessly to prevent easy looks at the rim, so taking out Ballard would make his Texas’ job on offense significantly easier.

They will certainly take advantage of the size differential between the two rosters as well; State starts three players 6-foot-3 and under (Hubbard, Epps, McGhee). Texas can employ things like midrange post-ups, something they don’t typically do, to utilize the size discrepancy that’s in their favor.

Defensively, Texas will want to clog passing lanes but recover quickly to prevent open looks from deep on drive-and-kick sets. Miller’s plan is typically to force contested midrange shots; given that pull-ups from 15 feet are one of Josh Hubbard’s biggest strengths, they may have to adjust their defense to account for Hubbard’s shotmaking skills. Otherwise, they may just let Hubbard get his points and force someone else on the roster to step up.

Prediction

Texas is a heavy favorite over the Bulldogs in Vegas, evident in a 9.5-point spread entering the game, which, in my opinion, is a bit overkill. Texas has had its struggles as well this season, and State is the type of team that can get extremely hot behind Hubbard’s and Epps’ hands. If you’re a betting man, the value is certainly there for Mississippi State +350 on the money line, and an over/under of 156.5.

I think Texas wins this game, but I would be very surprised if they covered and won by double digits. KenPom predicts an 83-75 victory for the Longhorns considering neither team has played particularly well defensively this year, but I see a lower-scoring game overall.

Predicted score: Texas 75, Mississippi State 70.